US Domestic Politics with no Oil Embargo

So, suppose that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations do not place an embargo upon the US, either because of the Yom Kippur War not happening or for another reason. The lack of such a supply shock would likely significantly reduce the breadth and extent of stagflation in the United States. My question is, how would this effect US politics in the 1970s? Supposing Watergate happens roughly as OTL, would this put Gerald Ford (or whoever else would succeed Nixon in this scenario) in a better spot to win re-election? If Carter still wins the presidency in 1976, would he be in a better spot four years later? Would a conservative like Reagan have a harder time winning the presidency with better economic conditions in the Seventies? Would this effect the longer-term decline of the New Deal Coalition, or had that ship already sailed by the time of the POD?
 
Even without the Embargo, prices were going to have to increase, as after 1970, the Texas Railroad Commission lost the ability to maintain prices by allowing US producers to pump more or less-- that passed to OPEC.
You would not see the Price Controls applied as OTL, that resulted in the Even/Odd rationing. So instead of the shortages, you would see gradually raising Oil prices.
Not good for the economy, but better than OTL.
Stagflation would still occur, but to a lesser extent.

So I would think Ford would be re-elected, and that makes for a real interesting 1979-80 with what Ford does about Iran
 
So I would think Ford would be re-elected, and that makes for a real interesting 1979-80 with what Ford does about Iran

If Ford wins in 1976, I have a hard time seeing him or any other Republican winning in 1980. The economy will not be doing particularly great and Republicans will have had control of the White House for nearly 12 years. I suspect Reagan will try to primary Ford again, and he may or may not win. I don't see him running in 1984, only because of his age. This is, of course, good for the likely Democratic president, who won't have to go up against the most charismatic politician in decades.

This leads to an interesting question: how will the Democratic Party look in the Eighties ITTL? Without Reagan, the Democrats have a better chance of retaining large sections of the white working class, at least for the moment. By this time OTL, the New Deal Coalition was falling apart in the wake of Vietnam, the New Left, Watergate and the poor economy. I don't see the weakened stagflation preventing its fall, but perhaps a skilled politician could hold it together for some time longer (as Carter did in 1976 to some extent OTL). If this happens, the rightward shift of the Democrats may be avoided, blunted, or delayed, depending on events in the Eighties and Nineties.
 
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