US doesn't defend Taiwan, does the RoC fall?

Can the PRC navy invade Taiwan in the 1950's if the US navy isn't present?


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In the 1950's the PRC was angling for an invasion of Taiwan but this became virtually impossible after the intervention of the US navy. ITTL the US doesn't defend Taiwan (President Taft or something, just take this point for granted) can Mao successfully invade with his pitiful navy? If yes, when is the likely invasion date/year and how long will the takeover of the island take?
 
I doubt it. It will be like Sealion 2.0.

The PRC had a lot of troops, but their navy is pathetically small and the Taiwan Straits will wreck any landing craft, while the ROC army is determined and ready to fight to the last man, as well as having a home ground advantage.....
 
China doesn't need a military. If the US just "forgets" about Taiwan then they'd become another Hong Kong and become "peacefully" annexed. Plus Maoism was a hell of a drug back in the 1960s so that could also be a big possibility(i.e. societal chaos in 1960s HK).
 
I doubt it. It will be like Sealion 2.0.

The PRC had a lot of troops, but their navy is pathetically small and the Taiwan Straits will wreck any landing craft, while the ROC army is determined and ready to fight to the last man, as well as having a home ground advantage.....

Are they though? Are they not beset by the same problems that they had on the mainland? Why die for some rich warlord?
 

RousseauX

Donor
In the 1950's the PRC was angling for an invasion of Taiwan but this became virtually impossible after the intervention of the US navy. ITTL the US doesn't defend Taiwan (President Taft or something, just take this point for granted) can Mao successfully invade with his pitiful navy? If yes, when is the likely invasion date/year and how long will the takeover of the island take?
Eventually yes, even an invasion in the early 1950s has a fairly significant chance of triggering a KMT collapse politically if the Communists gets a beachhead.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I doubt it. It will be like Sealion 2.0.

The PRC had a lot of troops, but their navy is pathetically small and the Taiwan Straits will wreck any landing craft, while the ROC army is determined and ready to fight to the last man, as well as having a home ground advantage.....
No they won't, one of the characteristics of Chinese Civil wars is for units on the losing sides to defect to the winning side and hope they get the best deal possible and that's what happened during the last phase of the civil war on the mainland. Plus a significant part of the KMT army foot soldiers wanted to go back to their homes on the mainland instead of staying on Taiwan. If the Communists lands in large numbers after the KMT is routed on the mainland then there is a pretty good chance enough of the KMT army defects and triggers a regime collapse.

To be clear, if the KMT does not collapse then at least in the early 50s the Communists gets destroyed wholesale if they try to invade.
 
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RousseauX

Donor
Why flee to an island if you don't believe in the cause? Anybody who wanted to leave would have had plenty of time to during the retreat.
Actually if you look at the list of Chiang's lieutenants who fled with him to Taiwan lots of them were ex-warlords who has a pretty impressive record in switching sides in the past, and the early 1950s was when the CCP was giving the impresson that they would treat defectors well and before they really showed their true hand during the Great leap forward. Under such circumstance it would not be unreasonable to see enough of them switching sides (again) and give the Communists a victory.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
To be clear, if the KMT does not collapse then at least in the early 50s the Communists gets destroyed wholesale if they try to invade.

A ChiCom invasion and loss is conceded as a possibility. By destroyed wholesale you mean the Communist invading force, not the Chinese Communists in general, right? If the failed invasion attempt happens before the Korean War, would China be in any shape to intervene in Korea? (pick your PoD, either the end of the Civil War is faster and the Reds have time to go by spring 1950, or Kim's invasion of the south is delayed by a month to a year). Actually, even if the ChiComs win, would a scenario where they are overcommitted for a time while the US and ROKs conquer the DPRK be plausible?
 
You also have to bear in mind that even during the 1950s and 60s up to the start of the Nixon administration, Chiang and the KMT still enjoyed much respect in the US due to their role in WW2 and the power and influence of Henry Luce's PR media machine. Indeed, Luce was probably the one American who really did like Chiang and the Madame personally and was a frequent guest to Taiwan back in the day.
 
Well, if Taiwan falls then only one good thing comes from this.

Meaning that the US 7th Fleet will most likely not hamper an attempted invasion of Taiwan. Therefore, China would move its focus down south and avoid the Korean War.

You have basically given South Korea a huge advantage (resource wise) and a major US foothold in Asia. Downside is that you've screwed the Taiwanese people.
 
You have basically given South Korea a huge advantage (resource wise) and a major US foothold in Asia. Downside is that you've screwed the Taiwanese people.
North Korea can invade without Chinese assistance, they got their weapons from the Soviets mostly. Mao only mattered as Kim's situation was growing intensely dire.
If China's amphibious invasion - if they're ever so stupid to attempt it - succeeds, this may help even more in the modernisation of the Chinese military: the ultimate reason why the Korean War was vital experience for China OTL.
 
Political collapse seems like the only way an amphibious assault could succeed, otherwise I don't see how the CCP could supply any meaningful force with their flimsy navy.
 
If the US doesn't defend the RoC, might there be a mutiny against the KMT, and overtures to the Communists for the accession of Taiwan in exchange for favourable concessions (such as they don't all get executed as traitors, etc.)?
 
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