US doesn't annex the Philippines

[Plumber]

Following Dewey's victory, Manila Bay was filled with the warships of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Japan; all of which outgunned Dewey's force. The German fleet of eight ships, ostensibly in Philippine waters to protect German interests (a single import firm), acted provocatively—cutting in front of American ships, refusing to salute the United States flag (according to customs of naval courtesy), taking soundings of the harbour, and landing supplies for the besieged Spanish. The Germans, with interests of their own, were eager to take advantage of whatever opportunities the conflict in the islands might afford. The Americans called the bluff of the Germans, threatening conflict if the aggressive activities continued, and the Germans backed down.

So what if the US backed down to Germany? Instead of annexing the Philippines the US ends up leaving it alone (lets say they annex Cuba instead), and Spain sells the Philippines to Germany.

This is significant because without the Philippines you lessen US interests in China and thus the Open Door Policy is butterflied, so China is likely to be partitioned. Now if China is partitioned after the Russo-Japanese War, then Japan ends up with Manchuria.

If the World Wars aren't too affected by this, then Japan likely gains German China (which would be next to Japanese Manchuria), and the German Philippines after WWI, and French Indochina (enlarged with France's partitions of China) after the Fall of France. So by 1940 the Imperial Japan has far greater territory:



Unlike OTL, there won't be widespread guerillas bleeding away Japan's resources in any of its possessions since they have been under colonial administration, and not recently conquered. Also, the Kuomintang have been butterflied away, and British China is in Japan's way of complete control of China. I wonder what they'll try to do next.

Of course, if the US ever enters into the equation Japan dies, so if the US remains isolationist and so never puts that oil embargo on Japan, will Japan be able conquer and most importantly, hold, the following in a war with Britain (no need to get the Dutch oil):
British China (does not include Tibet)
British Malaya & Borneo
British Burma
Thailand (most likely it joins Japan as a puppet like OTL, so this is the easiest one)

If it can't do that, will it be able to conquer and hold British China at least?

 

[Monty Burns]

This is significant because without the Philippines you lessen US interests in China and thus the Open Door Policy is butterflied, so China is likely to be partitioned.

Wait, why does this butterfly away the open door policy? The US has still considerable interest in trade with China. Why should German Philippines change that?

If the World Wars aren't too affected by this, then Japan likely gains German China (which would be next to Japanese Manchuria), and the German Philippines after WWI,

Why should Japan gain that much? Did they contribute sigficantly more to the Allied war efforts than OTL? The Philippines are a major asset, Germ China - so it exists - would be a major asset in is own right as well, both be more valuable than any of the German african possessions.

Unlike OTL, there won't be widespread guerillas bleeding away Japan's resources in any of its possessions since they have been under colonial administration, and not recently conquered.

Again: Why? Colonial rule IOTL was not necessarily uncontested. And I'd think that China based on is history and self-image would resist partition and colonialism rather more than the other east-asian colonies.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

Very interesting POD.

First response.

This is significant because without the Philippines you lessen US interests in China and thus the Open Door Policy is butterflied, so China is likely to be partitioned. Now if China is partitioned after the Russo-Japanese War, then Japan ends up with Manchuria.

If the World Wars aren't too affected by this, then Japan likely gains German China (which would be next to Japanese Manchuria), and the German Philippines after WWI, and French Indochina (enlarged with France's partitions of China) after the Fall of France. So by 1940 the Imperial Japan has far greater territory:

But I think that the WWs could be significantly affected. In this senerio Japan has a more powerfull postion at the start of WWI and is likely to do more fighting with a major German colony in the Phillipines.

I am a little weak on Japan involvement in WWI but if Japan ends the war in possesion of the Phillipines and Manchuria, then it is much harder for the European allies to deny them their fair share of the spoils.

A perception that was crucial to their eventually turning on the allies of WWI in WWII.

(on the other hand if they still get screwed they would be even more angry)

You really could see Japan on the side of the Allies in WWII, IMO.

Still I will review the period some.

 

[DuQuense]

If the World Wars aren't too affected by this, then Japan likely gains German China (which would be next to Japanese Manchuria), and the German Philippines after WWI, and French Indochina (enlarged with France's partitions of China) after the Fall of France. So by 1940 the Imperial Japan has far greater territory:

I would be more likely to assume that France doesn't fall.

Given a German Philippines in 1899, I expect that the Russian fleet [if Russo/Japanese war] will be able to refresh, refuel, in the Philippines, before heading north to Japan.