US did not have near air superiority over Japan in 45

Pangur

Donor
As title says, if Japan was able to defend its air space in 1945 would the US still have tried to drop a-bombs on Japan or would they have settled for maybe a small Japanese island or perhaps some Japanese troop concentrations in say China?
 
Sure if you can give the Japanese

  1. Oil
  2. Industrial materials
  3. Food
  4. Non-paper cities
  5. Larger landmass with more depth
  6. Night fighters
  7. Fighters with high-intercept ability
  8. A larger surviving economy which can produce those things
  9. Proper radars that didn't have massive altitude holes
  10. Radar that is put in use in any significant number
  11. A surviving navy
  12. More searchlights
  13. A firefighting force that was not just the town volunteers
  14. Surviving experienced pilots
  15. An IJN & an IJA that actually worked together
  16. Some way to be self-sufficient despite being cutoff by operation starvation
  17. An air defense system that integrated both the IJA & IJN that is not centeralized all the way back in Tokyo
Your asking for alot.

The easy way would be a German U-boat that sinks something remotely American, have America focus solely on Germany for a bit. Pearl habour occurs, America declears war but keeps Berlin on priority, less ships are in Pearl Habour due to the focus on the Atlantic. Germany is defeated in late 1944 as the entire industrial might of America is pouring bombs on bottlenecks in the German economy. After VE day the focus is shifted to the Pacific. The Japanese control a good deal of China, Oceania, & Burma, however as with OTL they would have trouble with logistics even with less merchant loss to the USN. The USN + the Royal navy grinds with the IJN in the Pacific, by 1945 Japan is still able to defend it's airspace but it's only a matter of time until 80% of the economic strength of the world shows.
 
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Pangur

Donor
I think I may have phased the question badly - the question is as follows - would the US have attempted a atom strike if they did not have air superiority?
 
Well the USA & the USN wouldn't have attempted overlord if they could not guarantee the safety of their ships & air force, much less the atomic bombs. They would just wait until they have air superiority or when Japan starves out. There is simply no reasonable way for Japan to pull this off without a pod going pre-1900.
 
I think I may have phased the question badly - the question is as follows - would the US have attempted a atom strike if they did not have air superiority?
As long as Japan is on the ropes, than probably yes. The Japanese would not waste resources trying to chase off a tiny three plane formation of B29s when at any moment, an 800 plane formation could be coming to steamroll them.

IOTL, they didn't even bother with flak against the Enola Gay, even though ammunition was the one resource they had in any quantity.
 

Pangur

Donor
As long as Japan is on the ropes, than probably yes. The Japanese would not waste resources trying to chase off a tiny three plane formation of B29s when at any moment, an 800 plane formation could be coming to steamroll them.

IOTL, they didn't even bother with flak against the Enola Gay, even though ammunition was the one resource they had in any quantity.

Good point
 
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