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I'm just thinking: Let's say that there occurs some 1810-1812 PoD that leads to an independent republic in New England (as in Jared's Decades of Darkness) but where only New England proper secedes and the rump USA retains the rest of the North. To avoid complicating factors, let's say that Canada is very similar to OTL's Canada, Mexico is very similar to OTL's Mexico and New England becomes an inoffensive trading nation without much animosity to, or especial interest in the internal affairs of, the rump United States (rather than some fervently abolitionist crusader-state or budding colonial empire or blatant British puppet or something similary provocative). How does the USA develop from there? It has lost much of the Northern, mercantile, anti-slavery population that existed there IOTL but a considerable amount remains, and there are still enough Northerners pushing west (consider New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania all remaining in the Union) that there will be significant opposition to Southern pro-slavery interests when that crops up as an issue.
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