There is a point in the 1995-1996 Taiwan strait crisis where it's very likely to turn the standoff into shooting war.
1996/3/18 PRC held a large scale military joined exercise on the island of Pingtan, less than 80 miles from Taiwan main island. The USS Independence battle group was already in place north-east of Taiwan. USS Nimitz battle group was on its way. The first Taiwan direct president election is still 6 days away. Although Taiwan president Lee Teng-Hui at that time also a president candidate, announced "Don't be afraid, they (China) use blanks!", people was still panicking and on high alert, many had already fled the country.
Say IF a F-CK-1 (IDF fighter) was very unfortunately crashed just in the middle of Taiwan strait right across the Pingtan Island exercise zone. No one sure how it happened, but most would presume it's by PRC, and this news would surely raise giant red-flag and made Taiwan into higher alert, even mobilized the army. What would this POD lead to?
Will US still maintain its stand and go to war with China? Will China catch the opportunity as an excuse to make it a real war? How far will this war escalate? Will it turning into just a regional conflict, or a new cold war, or an all out war (possibly a nuclear one)? Or will both sides still back off like the OTL?