US-China War : POD 1996/3/18 Taiwan Strait Crisis

My impression is the crisis developed because the USA responded a bit to slow to the Chinese beginning the exercise. I have no source, just my impression at the time.
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Now someday, Taiwan and China have to figure out how to end this dispute, but it is really not something the USA can do for the two countries.

I think if a future historian look back, will see this crisis as the turning point of East Asia power balance. After the 1949 retreat, Taiwan vs China started as two somewhat same level military forces, gradually became Taiwan was only part of a pacific defense chain, and eventually became the weakest link of the chain. And in 1995-1996, China saw the opportunity to shake the US pacific power bases, and end-up somewhat successful by simply showing their will to fight.

And by now I think Taiwan pretty much completely gave up military options, we cut back the military 3/4 since then, essentially make defense not possible. And US also gave up protection using military terms, and even gave up a coherent west-pacific defense, and let China exercises its power in south-east Asia. Ironically, Taiwan's newest weapons arrived just shortly after that (since 1997-2000), but never we are able to get new weapons deals. And those weapons deals we got are made in the early 90s. Looks like the US may won a strategic victory to make China back off, but as we look back from today, it's China win the war of winning a foothold into dominate East-Asia.

About this crisis change your lives. For Taiwanese male above 35, he will tell you how personally the crisis he felt (if he is willing to talk about it of course). That spring might very well be the last days of his life and home. That desperation was way intense than you can imagine. And I believe everyone is trying the best to forget about it and has to bury it as deep as possible, or we will not be able to put up smiley faces to embrace China now (kind of sad but true in every sense). We all try to forget, but I wonder how many really forgive deep inside. (Like you may have a lovely girlfriend back then, and her family decided it's too dangerous to stay in Taiwan, and sent her all the way to Canada, and you never able to see her even till today :)
 
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