alternatehistory.com

Here's the premise: During the Pig War (a territorial dispute between the US and Britain over San Juan Island near Vancouver), a skirmish breaks out between American and British troops (Say a misfired bullet, which scares both sides into firing) and it concludes with British troops taking the island from the American garrison. Within two days, American newspapers are calling for war because of the "unprovoked assault." American militia bands all along the US-Britain border (meaning Canada) fire on British troops, and raiding all along commences. Within a week of the San Juan Battle, Congress declares a state of war with the British Empire.

What are the results? Does this somehow prevent the secession of the South, or do they bail out, not wanting any part of it? Who wins? And assume that too much blood has been spilled for there to be a diplomatic solution.
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