US-Britain War, 1859

[Polish Eagle]

Here's the premise: During the Pig War (a territorial dispute between the US and Britain over San Juan Island near Vancouver), a skirmish breaks out between American and British troops (Say a misfired bullet, which scares both sides into firing) and it concludes with British troops taking the island from the American garrison. Within two days, American newspapers are calling for war because of the "unprovoked assault." American militia bands all along the US-Britain border (meaning Canada) fire on British troops, and raiding all along commences. Within a week of the San Juan Battle, Congress declares a state of war with the British Empire.

What are the results? Does this somehow prevent the secession of the South, or do they bail out, not wanting any part of it? Who wins? And assume that too much blood has been spilled for there to be a diplomatic solution.

 

[vultan]

This could either save the union or destroy it forever, depending on how the fight against Britain goes.

 

[Revolutionary Todyo]

Ah the Pig War, to think so much could come from a pig being shot

I'm going to say that this goes a similar way to 1812, skirmishing along the New England border with some attempts to take New York or Ottawa by either side. Maybe the Brits will burn the Whitehouse down again (I just think thats an awesome image).

Also considering that it's San Juan there will be a lot of conflict on the west coast. Much like on the east coast only it'll be Washington and Vancouver that their trying to take. Also action in Alaska will be likely.

Britain will be looking to trap America, so funding for the Mexicans and Texans will be likely.

 

[Philip]

Britain will be looking to trap America, so funding for the Mexicans and Texans will be likely.

Texas has been a US state for a decade at this point, and I have strong doubts that Mexico will want another go at the US so soon.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

Ah the Pig War, to think so much could come from a pig being shot

I'm going to say that this goes a similar way to 1812, skirmishing along the New England border with some attempts to take New York or Ottawa by either side. Maybe the Brits will burn the Whitehouse down again (I just think thats an awesome image).

Also considering that it's San Juan there will be a lot of conflict on the west coast. Much like on the east coast only it'll be Washington and Vancouver that their trying to take. Also action in Alaska will be likely.

Britain will be looking to trap America, so funding for the Mexicans and Texans will be likely.

The US didn't purchase alaska until 1867, so unless the Brits are anxious to get the Russians in on the side of the US there won't be any fighting in Alaska.

 

[wormyguy]

This will presumably prevent the split in the Democratic Party, and therefore secession. The British are not going to try to burn Washington, nor could they if they tried. By the time the British are able to logistically organize such an operation, the defenses around Washington (and other coastal cities such as New York) will be essentially impenetrable (c.f. OTL fortification of Washington, Baltimore in Civil War). Britain has the advantage on sea, the US has the advantage on land. The longer the war continues, the greater the US land advantage becomes, and the lesser the British sea advantage. Nobody really wants war in this situation, and its likely that the British will simply cede some land in the uninhabited wilderness of Oregon country to avert war. Nevertheless, if an all-out war occurs, then the US will eventually conquer Canada, whereas Britain will attempt to impose a blockade against the US (bombardment of ports is not really a viable option due to the danger from coastal artillery). It essentially becomes a simple test of willpower at that point.

 

[RMcD94]

How big are the comparable armies at this point?

 

[Polish Eagle]

This will presumably prevent the split in the Democratic Party, and therefore secession. The British are not going to try to burn Washington, nor could they if they tried. By the time the British are able to logistically organize such an operation, the defenses around Washington (and other coastal cities such as New York) will be essentially impenetrable (c.f. OTL fortification of Washington, Baltimore in Civil War). Britain has the advantage on sea, the US has the advantage on land. The longer the war continues, the greater the US land advantage becomes, and the lesser the British sea advantage. Nobody really wants war in this situation, and its likely that the British will simply cede some land in the uninhabited wilderness of Oregon country to avert war. Nevertheless, if an all-out war occurs, then the US will eventually conquer Canada, whereas Britain will attempt to impose a blockade against the US (bombardment of ports is not really a viable option due to the danger from coastal artillery). It essentially becomes a simple test of willpower at that point.

If this could prevent the Democratic split, then who wins? Breckinridge or Douglas?

So the US can eventually conquer Canada, provided that willpower holds for a few years. If the best generals (Lee, Jackson, Grant, Sherman) get commands early on, and win quick victories, might this generate enough popular support for a continuing war?

And the other variable is the rest of Europe. What about Russia (who, as previously noted, holds Alaska, and has an interest in this conflict), France (ally of Britain, if you go by Turtledove), and the beginnings of the German Empire.

 

[Polish Eagle]

How big are the comparable armies at this point?

After absorbing part of the East India Company, the British Army numbered 220,000 in 1861, scattered across the Empire (needed in India to prevent another Mutiny). I'm not sure what the size of the Union Army at its peak was, but about 150,000 marched through Washington at the end of the war IOTL. I'd say add 50% for the South (now total 225,000) and add another at least 10% for casualties gets you to about 250,000.

 

[wormyguy]

I believe (and this is just off the top of my head) that British garrisons and local forces in Canada numbered about 25,000 at the time, while the US standing army (incl. Northern national guards) at the start of the Civil War was about 55,000, which was expanded to 130,000 within three months of the start of the war.

 

[mowque]

Wouldn't there be plenty of time for cooler heads to prevail? News from Vancouver will take much longer then a week to trickle back to London and Washington...

 

[Polish Eagle]

I believe (and this is just off the top of my head) that British garrisons and local forces in Canada numbered about 25,000 at the time, while the US standing army at the start of the Civil War was about 55,000, which was expanded to 130,000 within three months of the start of the war.

Now we have to consider training. The Battle of Bull Run showed how badly an army of inexperienced soldiers does. And could the British bring their numbers up to a respectable 75,000 through conscription or volunteers?

 

[wormyguy]

Both Union and Confederate armies peaked in size at well over 500,000, for a total of over 3 million men who served in the war, and it's rather doubtful that the British could raise a force in Canada even exceeding 100,000 troops. Remember that the Indian Mutiny happened just two years ago, and the British are unlikely to be able to spare too many troops from garrisoning India.

 

[Polish Eagle]

Both Union and Confederate armies peaked in size at well over 500,000, for a total of over 3 million men who served in the war, and it's rather doubtful that the British could raise a force in Canada even exceeding 100,000 troops. Remember that the Indian Mutiny happened just two years ago, and the British are unlikely to be able to spare too many troops from garrisoning India.

OK, so when the American flag flies over Ottawa, where next? What about Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the other British possessions within striking distance?

 

[wormyguy]

OK, so when the American flag flies over Ottawa, where next? What about Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the other British possessions within striking distance?

Not happening, British naval superiority is too great for offensive actions outside of the North American continent.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Within six months to a year, the American merchant marine is swept from the world's oceans by the Royal Navy and the British have imposed a cast-iron blockade of the American coast. Some troops are dispatched to Canada to provide a sufficient defense, but in general the British simply wait for the Yankees to come to terms in the face of economic collapse.

A year or so later, a peace treaty very favorable to the British is signed.

 

[Dan Reilly The Great]

Not happening, British naval superiority is too great for offensive actions outside of the North American continent.

agreed, the American shipbuilding industry is going to be spending all of its time replacing all the ships the RN is sinking.

 

[67th Tigers]

How big are the comparable armies at this point?

The British have ca. 100,000 disposible troops available to deploy from the west and can spare 30,000 from the east, with some 10,000 Canadian militia immediately available (and rising).

The US had 5,000 regulars available after Indian commitments, and can immediately raise 90,000 militia. This isn't enough to man their coastal defences.

 

[The Kiat]

This could either save the union or destroy it forever, depending on how the fight against Britain goes.

I think that will depend a little bit more on whether Lincoln is still elected, since that was the excuse South Carolina used to sucede. Or is it secede?

 

[Douglas]

Britain wins, at the cost of her power in the first half of the twentieth century.