alternatehistory.com

Suppose George Washington gets shot in the head by a disgruntled loyalist at the end of the American Indelendence War, and the newborn american state (or states) finds itself without a proper unifying figure. Or some similar PoD. The Constitution is never written, and the states remain still divided.
So, the big question is: what now?
-Do the states break up violently, with series of interlocking alliances and rivalries taking hold of the former colonies? In such a scenario, how does the future of each former state play out? May one of these states become more powerful within time and eventually manage to come out on top of the others, unifying the eastern coast at least partially?
-Or, do the Articles of Confederation still manage to keep the states at least a bit together for enough in the future, like the Swiss Confederate Tagsatzung?
-How does each state's Manifest Destiny or expansion to the west play out in such scenarios?
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