US bombs Yongbyon nuclear reactor, does North Korea retaliate

Say the US bombs Yongbyon nuclear reactor in 1994, does North Korea retaliate

Would North Korea try to invade the South even though it is heavy outgunned or does it take limited actions like an artillery strike or a skirmish on the DMZ or does it do nothing at all.
 

kernals12

Banned
Say the US bombs Yongbyon nuclear reactor in 1994, does North Korea retaliate

Would North Korea try to invade the South even though it is heavy outgunned or does it take limited actions like an artillery strike or a skirmish on the DMZ or does it do nothing at all.
Probably, Kim Il Sung was pretty crazy.
 
I'm actually betting that something similar to the 2nd Korean War scenario from Wargame: Red Dragon would happen. I mean, Kim Il Sung was really crazy.
 
If the DPRK does not respond, Kim loses a huge amount of face. Full on invasion, maybe, lots of artillery hitting Seoul, almost certainly. What will China do - lots of complaining and US-China relations are now crap for some time.
 
1994 was the beginning of the "Arduous March", too. Between the imminent death of Kim Il-Sung (who is/was very respected by his countrymen) and the succession of Kim Jong-il, North Korea will face a much more difficult situation in 94/95 than OTL. Those years might be the best for the Kim dynasty to be overthrown too, since if Kim Jong-il fails to consolidate power and fails to respond well to both the foreign situation (skirmishes with ROK/US) and domestic situation (famine), he could run into some serious problems.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If it turns to conventional war in Korea can the northerners reach or take Seoul that year.

I imagine that even if the US outnaneuvers and eventually outguns North Korea, there will be an order of magnitude more casualties among US forces and civilian dependents in ROK than in the Persian Gulf War, and the deaths would pile up much faster than OTL’s Iraq or Afghanistan wars.

Although the Kim govt would be easy to cast as evil, would there be any questioning by the US public asking “hey, what are we still doing in Korea?”

Might this Korean War kill any appetite in the US for intervention in former Yugoslavia or expansion of NATO?

I think in 1994 China will stay out of the fight, it is still too weak at home and technologically behind and has no allied support.

If China does intervene it might not be in a position to successfully stalemate the west and preserve all North Korea, mainly because South Korean forces will be much larger and more advanced in 1994 than in the 1950s.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Could it hold part of North Korea ?

Possibly, but it might not try if the cost-benefit calculation of getting involved is too poor.

Unlike in 1950, by 1994 China had significant trade relations with South Korea, and also political relations.
 
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