US Blockades Japan Instead Of Overlord

Initially drawing on an oft-repeated POD, this timeline relies on the US not being able to develop the atomic bomb in time for OTL use in WWII. The reasons are immaterial for this discussion, as far as I'm concerned.

Many people seem to think that the only logical step if this had happened would be the invasion of of Japan. This would have caused hundreds of problems, many of which we are all familiar with. However, WI the American leadership had decided to crush Japan in another fashion? Namely, the continuation of the blockade of the Japanese Home Islands (JHI) and the firebombing of Japanese cities.

IIRC, the USAAF notably firebombed Tokyo and Kobe. In Tokyo, perhaps more than 100,000 people were killed, while in Kobe 8,840 people were killed and 650,000 were left homeless. In OTL only 1000 B-29s were placed into service, but by the end of OTL hostilities over 3700 had been produced, a force that would have greatly increased the effectiveness of the American attacks.

Perhaps I underestimate the will of the Japanese government and populace, but I can't see any state surviving repeated attacks of that nature while being under a complete and total naval blockade. What would be the resiliency of the Japanese if they were bombed in some way, shape, or form almost nightly and they were under the quickly growing specter of famine? How would any peace agreement look if made under these circumstances--would the Japanese still plead unconditional surrender, or perhaps the US would have allowed Japan to surrender while keeping Hirohito as Emperor, which was in fact an American concession in OTL?
 
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CalBear

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The invasion of Japan was code named Downfall, with the sub operations being Olympic (invasion of Kyushu) & Coronet (landings on Honshu). Overlord was the Normandy landings.

By late July 1945, the B-29's were burning down a Japanese city every other day. Had the A-Bomb not come into play, the pace of bombings would have increased, especially since the 8th AAF (aka: The Mighty Eighth) was scheduled to begin operations from Okinawa (B-17 & B-24) in mid September. The Submarine blockade, along with the almost daily carrier airstrikes and long range fighter sweeps staging out of Iwo Jima & Okinawa had put the Japanese at the edge of starvation.

I think that you will find most of the answers you are looking for here:

http://www.anesi.com/ussbs01.htm

It is likely that the Olympic landings would have been postponed, perhaps even cancelled, thanks to the fall '45 typhoon & increasing intel that had begun to shape a view of the actual distribution of Japanese ground forces.
 
well, one of three things could happen; one we go to war with the USSR when they try and invaded two let the USSR invade and slit Japan with the commies and three stay off the shores of japan for 30 years wail the japanese go back to the Edo period.
 
well, one of three things could happen; one we go to war with the USSR when they try and invaded two let the USSR invade and slit Japan with the commies and three stay off the shores of japan for 30 years wail the japanese go back to the Edo period.

Yeah, but I remember that whether or not the USSR could actually invade Japan has been debated on here before. IIRC, the consensus was that they might have been able to, but it's nearly out of the realm of feasibility.
 
Yeah, but I remember that whether or not the USSR could actually invade Japan has been debated on here before. IIRC, the consensus was that they might have been able to, but it's nearly out of the realm of feasibility.
true, whether it was militarily feasible or not doesn't matter as much as if Stalin wants to invade Japan. if Stalin says invade the USSR will invade japan.
 
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