US at war with Germany before July 1941 does Japan still get embargoed

US at war with Germany before July 1941 does Japan still get embargoed

  • yes

    Votes: 37 82.2%
  • no

    Votes: 8 17.8%

  • Total voters
    45
Thinking about it, unlike OTL there probably won't be a formal embargo with the sort of "do this or else" there was OTL. However, with the USA at war, the needs of the USA (and allies) will take priority, and the stuff Japan needs will be the stuff the USA needs and that will be that. I can see the USA simply telling Japan that due to the wartime needs, all critical supplies are requisitioned, and contracts for the future nullified - so sorry. While this is less of a humiliation for Japan, as opposed to giving in under threat, the reality remains the same - get oil and other raw materials or face collapse in 12-24 months versus end the war in China. With the USA pumping up its military at a high rate 6+ months sooner than OTL, the window for Japan to "do something" is even narrower. With the probable shift of at least some of the US Pacific Fleet to the Atlantic, Japan may strike earlier even if the KB has only four large carriers ready instead of six. In any case, I don't see the internal politics of Japan operating much differently.
 
The key to this, as I see it, is whether the Dutch NEI will sell oil to Japan. If they do (if the US doesn't pressure them to do so), then it allows Japan an out.
 
If the US is at war with Germany, the need for petroleum by the USA goes up significantly. The Netherlands is an ally, and they are hoping the home country gets freed by the US/UK. If the DEI oil and refined products are used by allied forces in Asia, oil from the Persian Gulf, Caribbean, and USA can be used for the war against Germany and none need be shipped to Australia, Malaya, India, etc. No need to sell it to Japan, and the USA would lean on the Dutch in this TL as well.
 
If the US is at war with Germany, the need for petroleum by the USA goes up significantly. The Netherlands is an ally, and they are hoping the home country gets freed by the US/UK. If the DEI oil and refined products are used by allied forces in Asia, oil from the Persian Gulf, Caribbean, and USA can be used for the war against Germany and none need be shipped to Australia, Malaya, India, etc. No need to sell it to Japan, and the USA would lean on the Dutch in this TL as well.
The US probably could've sustained itself in a war against just Germany due to the US producing its own consumption of oil and more. Now, if it expanded into the Pacific or expanded into any other theater of war then it would be needed for further military action. However, the Dutch government was the one who actually petitioned the US to not sell oil to Japan in 1940 so the US would have to basically ignore the requests of the Exiled Dutch Government and would have to act without nationalization or rationing of materials for the war. Unfortunately, that kind've borders on ASB due to the amount of resources needed by the US to focus on Germany and the Dutch government going to trade with a clearly hostile nation.
The only way I can see it possible for the Dutch or US governments to continue trade in this case is for Japan to not be a member of the Tripartite Pact or to withdraw from most of mainland China.
 
Bigger question; if the US is in the war before July 22 1941, does Barbarossa happen?
If Germany is at war with the US it is going to need all the aid (Soviet) it can get and can't afford a two front war. Their forces are going to be tied down in Western Europe and supplies used to build up and hold North Africa.

Stalin will love watching the fascists and capitalists bleed each other white, gradually using his aid to leverage greater concessions in the East. He'll make sure the Germans have JUST enough and when there isn't anything else to gain from the Reich, he'll turn to the Allies. Definitely a great scenario for the Soviets.
 
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If Germany is at war with the US it is going to need all the aid (Soviet) it can get and can't afford a two front war. Their forces are going to be tied down in Western Europe and supplies used to build up and hold North Africa.

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That is very logical, but we are talking about Hitler here. Operating under a very different set of priorities, world view, ect... We have his statements that he choose to attack the USSR when he did to obtain the resources needed to beat the Britain/US combination. He believed Germany was not obtaining enough from the USSR under the existing 1939-41 arriangment. Beyond that there was Hitlers racial & macro economic views which made subjugation of the Slavic peoples desirable sooner than later. Its also clear this was not a 'Germany' decision. By this point strategic direction had fallen into Hitlers control & other Germans could only make haphazard attempts to influence his thinking.
 
The US probably could've sustained itself in a war against just Germany due to the US producing its own consumption of oil and more. Now, if it expanded into the Pacific or expanded into any other theater of war then it would be needed for further military action. However, the Dutch government was the one who actually petitioned the US to not sell oil to Japan in 1940 so the US would have to basically ignore the requests of the Exiled Dutch Government and would have to act without nationalization or rationing of materials for the war. Unfortunately, that kind've borders on ASB due to the amount of resources needed by the US to focus on Germany and the Dutch government going to trade with a clearly hostile nation.
The only way I can see it possible for the Dutch or US governments to continue trade in this case is for Japan to not be a member of the Tripartite Pact or to withdraw from most of mainland China.

" However, the Dutch government was the one who actually petitioned the US to not sell oil to Japan in 1940 so the US would have to basically ignore the requests of the Exiled Dutch Government and would have to act without nationalization or rationing of materials for the war. Unfortunately, that kind've borders on ASB due to the amount of resources needed by the US to focus on Germany and the Dutch government going to trade with a clearly hostile nation."

So the Dutch govt. asked the USG to not sell oil to Japan? Can you elaborate on that please? I was always under the impression the USG did this on their own and pressured the Dutch to not sell to Japan.
 
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So the Dutch govt. asked the USG to not sell oil to Japan? Can you elaborate on that please? I was always under the impression the USG did this on their own and pressured the Dutch to not sell to Japan.
I think I overplayed the Dutch government's role in requesting the USG to not sell oil to the Japanese government. I meant to say that the Dutch government was refusing to deal with the Japanese on the same pre-war levels due to their alliance to Germany in the Tripartite and caused the USG to react accordingly by further restricting the Japanese-American trade.
Its not that they actually communicated an embargo but by simply putting further restrictions on Japan from the Dutch government, it lead to further trade restrictions due to the Japanese government's actions. This put the US in a better position to negotiate a cease of Japanese hostility in China. The result was a full blown US Embargo due to apparent International support from the Dutch government and arguably the British government.
 
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