US at war with Germany before July 1941 does Japan still get embargoed

US at war with Germany before July 1941 does Japan still get embargoed

  • yes

    Votes: 37 82.2%
  • no

    Votes: 8 17.8%

  • Total voters
    45
After reading through this, and writing some, I changed my vote. The US is still ramping up, it can't afford a two front war just yet. I think the US may no longer sell steel to Japan, but wont embargo her oil. This is the lifeblood of an economy, and the US will be hesitant (I think) to force Japan into a corner while needing to concentrate on the Nazi's. The US may also be more amenable towards another Japanese desire, no longer calling for complete withdrawl from all of China, and by that I mean Manchukuo. FDR will stick to requiring/demanding the Japanese remove themselves from China but MAY (there's no real way to tell IMO) offer a sort of defacto recognition of Manchukuo, not official recognition, but not telling Japan to pull out of there anymore. That and the continued availability of oil may butterfly away Japan entering the war as she did. They may even stay out entirely.
 

GarethC

Donor
The trigger for a lot of stuff OTL is the Fall of France and the subsequent Japanese occupation of FIC.

If the US is in the war, one or both of those may be butterflied away. Hell, if the US is in the war, Italy may not be. Mussolini's got to be doing the math and thinking "gosh, what a lot of ships they can park in the Med alongside the RN. Mamma mia!"

However, the US will be thinking about war with Japan as well as Germany anyway, regardless of the early declaration against just the latter (maybe because of a commerce raider doing something atrocious to an American-flagged liner or something).

It's likely that the various naval appropriations from Vinson will take place after the declaration of war against Germany, with the intent of creating a navy not just to secure the Atlantic against the pipsqueak Kriegsmarine, but also to build Essexes and Montanas etc. with which to make the Pacific an American lake after giving the IJN a paddling.

This puts Japan in a significantly worse place than OTL, with key parts of their naval order of battle (the A6M, a couple of fleet carriers, etc) not really available before late November 1941 anyway, and yet perhaps with an earlier spur to the US construction deluge that made it so clear that they had to get a US political defeat out of a string of military defeats in 1942, because after that the correlation of forces would preclude Japanese victory. Also note that earlier US committment to the war will reduce shipping losses in the Atlantic and probably get USAAF contingents into either France or North Africa, which will enable greater British committments to the Far East.

As to what happens, then the AH.com meme is that Yamamoto says that the IJN has no window where they are strong enough to pull off a Southern Strategy, he gets assassinated by Young Turks screaming yamato damashii and Japan puts all its chips on black anyway.

Bigger question; if the US is in the war before July 22 1941, does Barbarossa happen?
 
The most vital thing the USA sells Japan is petroleum, especially refined products like aviation gasoline. Japan is in a military alliance with Germany (albeit defensive) and the USA is at war with Germany. Japan has occupied FIC and is waging a war in China the US does not approve of. There is no way the USA sells anything that could be considered military, especially petroleum products to Japan, the credit freeze continues. You might see some rice sales to Japan for cash, but that's about it.

The US accelerated war economy begins 6-10 months earlier. Even though no war in the Pacific I expect some of the buildup there will accelerate, defenses at Wake and elsewhere completed before December, 1941. For better or worse US positions in the Pacific will be more alert than OTL. You may see some of the pacific Fleet transferred back to San Diego or even to the Atlantic Fleet. If that happens, combined with some higher level of readiness an attack on PH is less effective than OTL if it goes off at the same time or even a little sooner.

Since the USA, UK, and Netherlands are now active allies, you have 6 months or more to develop some unified planning for defense in SEA/DEI which will make a difference should Japan attack there as OTL.
 
I say yes. The thing to remember was the US fought the Pacific War with one hand tied behind its back. They concentrated on Germany so approximately 65 to 75 percent of things went there. The other 30ish percent was used in the Pacific. The commentators above have also pointed out some the things germane to doing this.
 
After reading through this, and writing some, I changed my vote. The US is still ramping up, it can't afford a two front war just yet. I think the US may no longer sell steel to Japan, but wont embargo her oil. This is the lifeblood of an economy, and the US will be hesitant (I think) to force Japan into a corner while needing to concentrate on the Nazi's. The US may also be more amenable towards another Japanese desire, no longer calling for complete withdrawl from all of China, and by that I mean Manchukuo. FDR will stick to requiring/demanding the Japanese remove themselves from China but MAY (there's no real way to tell IMO) offer a sort of defacto recognition of Manchukuo, not official recognition, but not telling Japan to pull out of there anymore. That and the continued availability of oil may butterfly away Japan entering the war as she did. They may even stay out entirely.
The US never demonstrated any inclination to back Japanese claims on China. If they are at war with Germany before July 1941 the US is going to be both more militarized and more assertive worldwide. There will be no change to this now that the US is more prepared to clash with Japan if necessary.
 
Id agree with you, your points being considered before I changed my mind. What made me reconsider is that there was/is still a Germany first strategy, and the US is going to be fully embroiled in the war. I don't think we could have gotten further along in the OTL military buildup than we did, so no reason to think we would be further in TTL. That's why I changed my mind. As to Manchukuo, if the Japanese pull out of Northern China and back to where they were before the war with China started (Manchuria) I believe FDR may (and this is only a possibility) leave things at that. Just getting them out of the occupied territories of China would be a major victory in itself, if the Nationalist's agree to peace then it becomes more likely.
 
@Oldbill : I have to respectfully disagree with you. If the USA is at war with Germany by July, 1941 by December, 1941 the US will be further along with mobilization. Now I do agree that on the day of the DOW in June/July 1941 the USA will probably be in the same readiness as it was on the same day OTL. Whether or not the USA is a little further along than it was OTL depends on whether or not there was a ramping up to war with Germany or if it came as a coup like Pearl Harbor.
 
The USA doesn't need a formal embargo if it's at war. All it needs to do is say, "We're at war. So Sorry!!! We're out of stock on war materials. Even our own people don't have what they need."

Japan can now see that, when the war's over, and the American economy is at 110%, that any war would be short.
 
We need to remember the Embargos & freezing of Japanese accounts in US banks was not intended to bring war. The belief was it would bring Japan to negotiate a withdrawal from FIC, and a Armistice in China. If the US is near war with Germany pressuring Japan into peace talks over China would still look like a good idea.

No one in the US government could believe the Japanese leaders would be so batshit crazy.
 
@Oldbill : I have to respectfully disagree with you. If the USA is at war with Germany by July, 1941 by December, 1941 the US will be further along with mobilization. Now I do agree that on the day of the DOW in June/July 1941 the USA will probably be in the same readiness as it was on the same day OTL. Whether or not the USA is a little further along than it was OTL depends on whether or not there was a ramping up to war with Germany or if it came as a coup like Pearl Harbor.

My inelegantly stated prose was trying to get to that, the difference in dates for our entering. I'm blaming kitten attacks ( I have a new one, and she is, "energetic") for not being clearer.:)
 
We need to remember the Embargos & freezing of Japanese accounts in US banks was not intended to bring war. The belief was it would bring Japan to negotiate a withdrawal from FIC, and a Armistice in China. If the US is near war with Germany pressuring Japan into peace talks over China would still look like a good idea.

No one in the US government could believe the Japanese leaders would be so batshit crazy.

I completely forgot that Carl! Good Catch!
 
It really depends on a lot of factors in order to determine if Japan would still be embargoed. I personally believe that 9 times out of ten that the US would embargo Japan. Its more out of the ideology of the time by the US in dealing with hostile nations by the use of a "Quarantine." However, I do not believe it would result in a war.
 
Its more out of the ideology of the time by the US in dealing with hostile nations by the use of a "Quarantine." However, I do not believe it would result in a war.

Depends on how vicous the sanctions are, and how flexible the negotiations. The Embargos were set in June/July. Negotiations dragged on for near four months. Neither side would give in on it's core position, which left Japan already sliding into economic collapse.
 
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