US and Japan peace treaties with victorious Central Powers?

In a TL where the WWI Central Powers are victorious, what do their treaties look like with the Powers that they have a *very* difficult time touching: the USA and Japan?

For the USA, this differs based on whether the victory is before or after the US commits significant forces to France. June 1917 vs. June 1918 (for example). For Japan, I'm not sure whose navy was superior (German HSF or the Japanese Imperial Navy) I think even if the HSF was superior that the Japanese would be willing to fight to keep at least some of their gains (China).

Some of this may depend on the UK's peace treaty with Germany. If the UK can walk away more or less Status Quo Ante by territory, Germany doesn't really gain all that much in terms of supply points or ports to attack the US or Japan.

Also, how much do AH and the Ottomans affect this balance? Ottoman ports get the HSF halfway to Japan, but that's about it.

Ideas?
 
Germany doesn't really have power projection on that scale navally and it probably won't want to

I'm guessing they'd use the "we'll sell it to you" tactic over Tsingtao to save face

I think Germany would try to regain the N Pacific islands at the table tho, since allowing Japan to have Tsingtao should be enough for Tokyo and the latter allows Germany to say it still has a global empire

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I also think the would deal with the Japanese that way, regarding that they wanted to have them as allies according tho the Zimmermann Telegram in 1917.

If the US had already send soldiers to France, the germans could possibly ask war reparations in change for their prisoners of war. But also without troops in Europe the Americans would feel pretty embaraced and the public opinion would be very anti-German. I guess a American-German war would be occasioned by some sort of German attempt to gain influence in Mexico or Central America, very likely even before 1941. Neither Germany nor the US would let a chance to have a showdown slip away.

(About the size of the Japanese navy comparded to the German navy: I'm pretty sure the German fleet was still bigger (1918) and probably better quality. But I don't think they could win a war against them, because to do that they had to move their complete fleet to the pacific, leaving their home unprotected.)
 
The POD almost has to be in 1918 and presume some near miraculous collapse of France and Britain. It would matter somewhat if the US Expeditionary Force was present in force, but not a lot. I do believe that the US would readily accept a peace treaty if its other allies collapsed. Unlike WW2, US involvement in WW1 was not universally popular.

But I doubt Germany could demand much of either the US or Japan other than an end to the war and possibly some symbolic reparations from Japan (for loss of colonies) and the US (for damage/losses caused by conflict with US forces). Germany in 1918 was impoverished and near collapse iteself. It's navy was in virtual mutiny and rusty from lack of use. Would the HSF even be able to follow in Russia's footsteps and send its ships all the way around the world to battle the Japanese Navy? If Germany was able to secure a peace that allowed it to keep the Brest-Litovsk gains, return of its African colonies siezed by Britain and France, put some Versailles-like reduction on French power, and get British acknowledgement of German equality at sea (all of which could happen in a Britain France collapse scenario), the German people would be elated. The monarchy would be saved. Any military attempt to force more draconian terms on two essentially undamaged and highly-capable enemies that were basically invulnerable from direct attack would be folly. Even Kaiser Bill could not be that silly.
 
The POD almost has to be in 1918 and presume some near miraculous collapse of France and Britain. It would matter somewhat if the US Expeditionary Force was present in force, but not a lot. I do believe that the US would readily accept a peace treaty if its other allies collapsed. Unlike WW2, US involvement in WW1 was not universally popular.

But I doubt Germany could demand much of either the US or Japan other than an end to the war and possibly some symbolic reparations from Japan (for loss of colonies) and the US (for damage/losses caused by conflict with US forces). Germany in 1918 was impoverished and near collapse iteself. It's navy was in virtual mutiny and rusty from lack of use. Would the HSF even be able to follow in Russia's footsteps and send its ships all the way around the world to battle the Japanese Navy? If Germany was able to secure a peace that allowed it to keep the Brest-Litovsk gains, return of its African colonies siezed by Britain and France, put some Versailles-like reduction on French power, and get British acknowledgement of German equality at sea (all of which could happen in a Britain France collapse scenario), the German people would be elated. The monarchy would be saved. Any military attempt to force more draconian terms on two essentially undamaged and highly-capable enemies that were basically invulnerable from direct attack would be folly. Even Kaiser Bill could not be that silly.

Could Germany really seek reparations from the U.S. when the war will have(presumably) never have been on prewar German territory in the West?
 
Could Germany really seek reparations from the U.S. when the war will have(presumably) never have been on prewar German territory in the West?


Well, if Edward N Hurley (Chairman of the United States Shipping Board) is to be believed, then President Wilson himself took this possibility seriously. In The Bridge To France (Ch XIV, p93) he quotes the President as follows.

"Hurley - - with the success of the Germans in driving a wedge between the well-seasoned troops of the British and the French in the Cambrai sector, if by any chance they were to repeat their onslaught with a like result on our front and capture a hundred thousand or more of our soldiers, I dread to contemplate the feeling which would be produced in the minds of the American people. Unless we send over every man possible to support the Allies in their present desperate condition, a situation may develop which would require us to pay the entire cost of the war to the Central Powers".

Of course, Wilson believing this does not necessarily make it so, but evidently it did not seem fantastic at the time.
 

NothingNow

Banned
(About the size of the Japanese navy comparded to the German navy: I'm pretty sure the German fleet was still bigger (1918) and probably better quality. But I don't think they could win a war against them, because to do that they had to move their complete fleet to the pacific, leaving their home unprotected.)

The Kaisermarine was larger, but less experienced and capable. IJN units were very well trained, well lead, quite experienced by the end of the war, and managed to do some amazing things during the war, especially the two Destroyer squadrons under Adm. Sato Kozo in the Med.

The US Navy wasn't as experienced, but just as well trained and led, and generally had better quality vessels, which were unfortunately not built to fight the way the Brits and Germans had built them.

It'd have to go to negotiations, and they'd have to be very fair. The HSF could do serious damage to the USN, the Brazilian Navy or the IJN, but not enough to establish effective dominance, even with RN support and UK basing, and lacked the political will for anything else. The same for the Three remaining Entante states.
 
Errr, The Central Powers wouldn't have the ability to force Britain to do anything much less The US.


If the Western Front has collapsed they may have anything up to a million British prisoners - far more than we have of theirs.

Also, British ships will be going down at the rate of some two or three hundred thousand tons per month, even after the introduction of convoy. Not sure how many drowned seamen that adds up to, but probably quite a lot.

Those sound like substantial bargaining chips, especially as German control of the continent makes the blockade far less effective.
 
I heard someone once talk about te Kaiser wanting Canada as his personal possession though since I read it in "What If"... Anyways perhaps the Central Powers would merely ask for the debts of the British and French be transfered from American creditors to German ones. Perhaps have the Americans write up a few more loans. The Germans might even want Guiana despite it being of no rael use. Liberia maybe? The southern islands of the Phillipines as a protectoracte when the islands were to be granted indepence?Come to think of it though this would merely be a peacce treaty. Not as if they could have beaten America considering the distance. Perhaps simply recognizing them? An alliance perhaps?
 
The USA and Japan both telling the Central Powers "Nuts!" By the way, are talking about the Central Powers or just Germany? If the Central Powers get too obnoxious with the USA and Japan, those two countries might find common cause. Speaking of untouchable Entente allies, what of China? There were tens of thousands (at least) of Chinese laborers on the Western Front. Now there is a scenario, China, Japan, and the USA versus the Central Powers (or just Germany?).
 
Suppose that post-February Revolution Russia does, instead of dragging the state of hostilities to Brest Peace, 3rd of March, 1918, make separate peace in May 1917 (after thye collapse of Prince Lvov government in April over the promise to keep fighting).

So USA is committed to war (6th of April, 1917), France has just suffered bloody loss of Nivelle offensive, and German forces return from eastern front 10 months earlier than OTL (when they advanced to Marne but lost in July 1918).

Could 1917 German Western Front advance defeat France? And would UK manage to evacuate the expedition corps, or would they be captured and German hostages for peace negotiations?
 
The USA and Japan both telling the Central Powers "Nuts!" By the way, are talking about the Central Powers or just Germany? If the Central Powers get too obnoxious with the USA and Japan, those two countries might find common cause. Speaking of untouchable Entente allies, what of China? There were tens of thousands (at least) of Chinese laborers on the Western Front. Now there is a scenario, China, Japan, and the USA versus the Central Powers (or just Germany?).

I generally figured that it wouldn't make much of a difference. I can't see AH and the Ottoman Empire continuing to fight if Germany isn't part of it and if Germany does fight, then AH and the Ottomans are definitely Junior Partners in the Continuing fight.
 
The USA and Japan both telling the Central Powers "Nuts!" By the way, are talking about the Central Powers or just Germany? If the Central Powers get too obnoxious with the USA and Japan, those two countries might find common cause. Speaking of untouchable Entente allies, what of China? There were tens of thousands (at least) of Chinese laborers on the Western Front. Now there is a scenario, China, Japan, and the USA versus the Central Powers (or just Germany?).

I presume all the CP.

Regarding the "tens of thousands" Chinese Laborers, I'm not sure what this means. Were these people part of official Chinese army work units under Chinese command? Or were they just Chinese workers sent over to work for France and Britain. I suspect it's the latter, in which case who cares what China does? Unlike Japan or the USA which could, if they wanted to, continue the war in a meaningful sense on their own, what could China do against Germany without a navy, merchant fleet, or way of getting its poorly trained army to Europe? Any German territory in Asia China could go after has already been taken by Japan. China was a very, very junior in the anti-German alliance that would soon fall afoul of Japanese ambitions anyway.

Perhaps, in the unlikely event that the US and/or Japan sought to continue WW1 after the collapse of France and Britain, it makes more sense for China to look seriously at being neutral and then change sides if it looks like Japan (in particular) might be defeated.
 
The Kaisermarine was larger, but less experienced and capable. IJN units were very well trained, well lead, quite experienced by the end of the war, and managed to do some amazing things during the war, especially the two Destroyer squadrons under Adm. Sato Kozo in the Med.

The US Navy wasn't as experienced, but just as well trained and led, and generally had better quality vessels, which were unfortunately not built to fight the way the Brits and Germans had built them.

It'd have to go to negotiations, and they'd have to be very fair. The HSF could do serious damage to the USN, the Brazilian Navy or the IJN, but not enough to establish effective dominance, even with RN support and UK basing, and lacked the political will for anything else. The same for the Three remaining Entante states.


I'm not sure about a lot of these statements, which seem to be based on simple prejudices. Yes, in 1918, the HSF was suffering low morale, but to claim it was "less experienced and capable" than the Japanese navy is simply wrong. With the exception of the two destroyer squadrons deployed to the mediterranean, the core of the Japanese fleet saw little meaningful action except escorting Australian troop convoys starting their trips to Europe and helping hunt down - but never finding or sinking - German surface raiders. How can you possibly compare this to the experience and capability the German navy gained and showed in numerous engagements with the Grant Fleet? Maybe the Japanese battlefleet and battlercruisers were "well led" and "well trained", but they never had an opportunity to prove it.

The experience of the US battle squadron deployed to the North Sea in 1918indicated that US gunnery and tactical training were horrible in comparison with their RN allies, and it can be argued RN training was probably less thorough than German. There's a good chance that if they had actually engaged an equivalent German force without the RN around, the USN would have suffered a very embarrasing and costly humiliation.

I don't disagree that the HSF would have had problems matching up against the US and Japan together, but if one assumes the ordinary German seaman's late-war low morale could be fixed, the problem certainly wouldn't be in crew experience, training, or capabilities. The main problems the HSF would have had laid in the fact that their ships were designed for short-term sorties in the North Sea, not sailing thousands of miles around the world to fight on the open Atlantic or Pacific against an enemy whose ships were designed for this.
 
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