US agrees to Iranian Grand Bargain

reading the comments on the fax, it seems debatable if it was a genuine offer or not. So a US positive response would depend entirely on that... if it's genuine, then the US and Iran improve relations immediately. If it's not, then the US gets another embarrassing incident as Iran replies, "what?! We didn't make any such offer! Death to America!"
 
I think you'd need to have a POD a bit further back. Bush achieved a rapprochement with Gaddafi's Libya, but this was started by Tony Blair in the 1990s. The same neocons who didn't want to negotiate with Iran were skeptical of Libya, but diplomatic precedent and pressure from Europe pulled them in.
 
I think you'd need to have a POD a bit further back. Bush achieved a rapprochement with Gaddafi's Libya, but this was started by Tony Blair in the 1990s. The same neocons who didn't want to negotiate with Iran were skeptical of Libya, but diplomatic precedent and pressure from Europe pulled them in.

What might cause Europe or the US to start negotiations sooner with Iran?
 

Incognito

Banned
reading the comments on the fax, it seems debatable if it was a genuine offer or not. So a US positive response would depend entirely on that... if it's genuine, then the US and Iran improve relations immediately. If it's not, then the US gets another embarrassing incident as Iran replies, "what?! We didn't make any such offer! Death to America!"
Even if the offer was genuine, than if hardliners get into power (as occurred OTL) they could go back on the deal. What would prevent either iran or the USA from holding their end of the bargain?
 
Personally, I think it'd be sweet!
Butterfly the whole Axis of Evil speech and policy by W and the Neocons; thus lead to a much better economy for Iran, improve the ground game in Afghanistan immensely with Iranian support, and drop tensions by a factor of 100 in the Middle East.

Not many downsides to it really from my POV except what's below:

Pakistan could freak out as Iran would have US support and the US start its tilt toward India even faster with Iran facilitating it.
You could see a much more explicit Paki alliance with China, mutual-defense pact, etc.

You could see a resumption of the Great Game, only between the US and China over Central Asia and its resources.

YMMV on this....
 
reading the comments on the fax, it seems debatable if it was a genuine offer or not. So a US positive response would depend entirely on that... if it's genuine, then the US and Iran improve relations immediately. If it's not, then the US gets another embarrassing incident as Iran replies, "what?! We didn't make any such offer! Death to America!"

It's quite debatable. But an offer that can be easily denounced by the hard-liners in Iran as you mention....
 

katchen

Banned
A true grand bargain with Iran would have meant a basic reorientation of US foreign policy from support of Sunni Islam to support of Shia Islam ala what Russia and China are now doing (which actually would be a smart move on the US's part).
1.Replacement of the Khalifa kingdom in Bahrain with a democratic regime.
2. Replacement of the Emir of Kuwait with a democratic regime
3. In Afghanistan, support for Abdullah Abdullah and the Tajiks over the Pashtuns. Possible support and recognition for the breakup of the country including an independent Shia Hazarajat to prevent any possible return to Taleban domination
4. Support for Shia landowning class in Pakistan over Deobandi-Wahabist ISI
5. Intervention in Iraq, yes, but with the premise that the country can be divided into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish nations
6. Most radically, independence from Saudi Arabia for the oil rich but Shia and downtrodden Eastern Province. Possible overthrow of the House of Saud altogether for it's enabling role in 9/11
In return, Iran becomes a US ally and has no reason not to be a US ally.
Does anybody but me bother to ask the question of why the US never seems to meet a Sunni regime it dosen't like and with the exception of the Maliki regime in Iraq, never met a Shia regime it does?
 
Top