Uruguay without the Portuguese

What would happen to the Liga Federal (the predecessor of modern Uruguay) if the Portuguese in Brazil didn't invade? Could the UPSA take over all of Uruguay, or would something else happen?
 
What would happen to the Liga Federal (the predecessor of modern Uruguay) if the Portuguese in Brazil didn't invade? Could the UPSA take over all of Uruguay, or would something else happen?

Well, the Liga Federal at first didn't want to make Uruguay a separated nation, but rather was a political group involving some regions of the former Viceroyalty of Rio de la Plata that were against the elite of Buenos Aires, who wanted a more centralized country. After all, not only Banda Oriental, but also other provinces belonged to the Liga Federal. If there is no Portuguese invasion probably there would be some kind of civil war between the Liga and the supporters of Buenos Aires, the Unitarians.

However, considering that even after the occupation of Uruguay by the Portuguese and the destruction of Artigas' army the Federalists still managed to defeat the Unitarians at Cepeda (1820), I believe that without the invasion Artigas could have defeated the supporters of Buenos Aires earlier, and the would be the strong man of United Provinces, now in a more federalized model. IOTL the Federalists made some concessions to Buenos Aires after Cepeda, but given that Artigas was contrary to it I think now the peace would be made as he wished.
 
Hmm I thought the UPSA won the war with the federalists (damn you Wikipedia) but since they didn't would that mean Argentina would be stronger in ATL? Such as curbing Chilean expansion in Patagonia for example?
 
Hmm I thought the UPSA won the war with the federalists (damn you Wikipedia)

Well, they won that later, during the 1850's and early 1860s'*, but in 1820 they were defeated by the Federalists.

*Actually the war itself was militarly won by Confederation led by Urquiza, but in one of the most crazy actions ever made in the history of human conflicts, after having defeated Mitre (the commander of the forces of Buenos Aires) in the field, he decided to concede the defeat to his adversary.
 
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Uruguay would remain an Argentinean province, counterbalancing the power of the Buenos Aires' elites so the country would have been far less centralized and just maybe, there would have been less bloodshed overall.
And, depending on butterflies, maybe Argentina would have also inherited OTL Bolivia during the final years of the independence wars.

Border disputes might have resulted in a war with Brazil in the 18th century though.
 
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