Until Every Drop of Blood Is Paid: A More Radical American Civil War
- Thread starter Red_Galiray
- Start date
I've wondered this too and I think it's quite plausible, especially for the richer classes. After all, it's worth remembering that, contrary to their Neo-feudal and 'tied-to-their-place' image in the postwar years, the antebellum planter class were highly mobile and entrepreneurial.
Possibly. I was also thinking that a lot of them could just up sticks to New York and work on Wall Street...
Ironically, Brazil actually had a large amount of ex Confederates coming here because we hadn't outlawed slavery yet, so with a more severe reconstruction, we might see a even bigger influx of southerners.
Bookmark1995
Banned
But I wonder if ol'Pedro might be more motivated than ever to end slavery because of the more violent civil war?
Conversely, might a larger Confederado population push to keep slavery longer (possibly leading to a Brazilian civil war)?
In that case, the USA might intervene on the side of the monarchy.
Bookmark1995
Banned
I don't think Confederados could gain enough power, even if 10,000 of them moved to Brazil.
The only reason Pedro was overthrown was that he allowed himself to be: he was a tired old man with no heir and thus no reason to keep going.
If they tried to start a revolt, Pedro would put that shit down hard, and most of his soldiers would fight for him.
What people always forget about Brazil is that unlike America slavery wasn't sustainable internally, it required the slave trade. And since the British made clear their opposition and were intercepting ships pretty much everyone knew it was going to end by the 1850s(specifically 1852 was the confirmation IIRC), they just tried to kick the can down the road for as long as they could. Only way slavery persists much longer in Brazil is if the British never go for enforcement of the ban.
That known and acknowledged fact, along with Brazil at the time having the best government and leadership the country, ever had, means the end of slavery was never going to end up causing turmoil much less an actual civil war. Adding even tens of thousands Americans won't change anything.
The coup was a few republicans realizing that the last hope they had of people disliking the monarch enough to change was gone and trying a last ditch attempt. If the Emperor had done anything but essentially resign and give his blessings before the government could trivially crush the tiny group, the coup attempt would only be known to few people as a bunch of idiots who thought they could overthrow a popular and powerful government with a few dozen randos. And in that TL anyone writing how it happened IRL would be moved over to ASB as obviously it could only happen that way because real life is just not plausible sometimes.
And since they had no plan or support but disbanded the entire government anyway the Old Republic ended up being the disaster it was.
That known and acknowledged fact, along with Brazil at the time having the best government and leadership the country, ever had, means the end of slavery was never going to end up causing turmoil much less an actual civil war. Adding even tens of thousands Americans won't change anything.
The coup was a few republicans realizing that the last hope they had of people disliking the monarch enough to change was gone and trying a last ditch attempt. If the Emperor had done anything but essentially resign and give his blessings before the government could trivially crush the tiny group, the coup attempt would only be known to few people as a bunch of idiots who thought they could overthrow a popular and powerful government with a few dozen randos. And in that TL anyone writing how it happened IRL would be moved over to ASB as obviously it could only happen that way because real life is just not plausible sometimes.
And since they had no plan or support but disbanded the entire government anyway the Old Republic ended up being the disaster it was.
Bookmark1995
Banned
But if you took a close look at the monarchy by 1888, you could see the monarchy was on the way out.
The main issue with the monarchy was the monarch himself.
Dom Pedro, for all his wisdom and brilliance, had not enjoyed the trappings of a normal life: forced into an arranged marriage with a woman he didn't particularly love, he never got to raise his two sons, both of who whom died young (thanks a lot Hapsburg genes). His childhood was one of the extremely overtaxing studies.
By the time the coup ended, Pedro had pretty given up on the pomp and ceremony of the monarchy: he was an old man close to death from diabetes.
If Dom Pedro had had a little more agency in his life, the monarchy could've probably survived into the present. But once the coup started, Pedro did what Metro Man wanted to do: make a choice to not have to be the superman holding society together.
Really sad history was his life, he did many excellent things for Brazil and modernized it a lot, but he couldn't simply keep going after everything that had happened with him so he lets the coup happens and dooms the country to a sluggish and incompetent government that lasts into the Vargas era.
I think the idea with Brazil from the sound of things is less, “would they win” and more, “would Pedro take action” IMO. Would having slavers from the CSA would just fought a civil war joining up with the coup attempt prompt Pedro to take more of a stand against it? If he did, would that have helped the country at all in the long run?
Alternatively, the coup succeeds. But, the First Republic makes no attempt to restore slavery, leading to Confederate exiles starting a civil war against the First Republic in response to being "stabbed in the back."
Bookmark1995
Banned
Depends. If they overthrow him in his prime, no.
If they overthrew him in 1888, when he was dying, yes he would go.
Wow, sounds like the end of my YA dystopia parody book I did for nanowrimo one year. Only without the puppy as one remaining member of the Old Government for the transition.
( sorry, you have to read for it to make sense )So without a Treasury Secretary Puddles, what was going to happen if the Emperor of Brazil died with no heir? And how did they miss the pun about a king not having any air in Spaceballs? I sure don't think I remember such a pun. Then again, I just thought of it because I was speaking into my tablet and the air that we breathe is what the text-to-speech came up with, not the heir king would have.
In theory, Isabel was the heir, but no one wanted a - gasp - female monarch. As soon as Pedro II's sons died in the 1850s, the monarchy was essentially a dead institution walking if I understand correctly.
Or the empire going to her husband, Count D'u who became infamous for leading a attack that slaughtered children and elderly during the Paraguayan war, even with the whole "the wars is not over unless it's unconditional surrender" that was the objective, everyone was disgusted with his actions so while there's a chance he could get it there would be some resistance at least. Maybe if Pedro's sons didn't die or Isabella had married a different man, the monarchy might survive.
Although with the Paraguayan war just starting now and Confederates moving to Brazil with their experience with modern warfare and equipment would make for some excellent commanders that might end the war faster and not leave Brazil and Argentina as broken and debt ridden as they were in OTL, one of the reasons for the collapse of the monarchy was the financial and social troubles that came with the war, such as the army becoming much more politically actively, a upsurge of freedman as slaves were sent by their masters to fight instead of their sons and foreign debt increasing with the loans they took with the British. Maybe with more Confederates around, slavery might last more and die a slow death instead of a order of the royal family.
I still hope the Paraguayan War is averted, since this TL's POD is in the 1850s.
Hopefully, maybe with a more powerful US they can arrange some diplomatic solution that makes clear for Paraguay they have much more to lose with the war and any realistic chance of winning is basically null.