I can see a Second Civil War, but I don't think Socialists Versus Capitalists gets you to your goal of a more racially progressive United States.
First of all- I'm sorry, but late nineteenth century progressivism was incredibly racist. The attempts by the American Populists to build cross-racial solidarity failed because even most people on the left preferred racial to class solidarity. Furthermore, so much of the great racial fears of the period were about non-whites taking 'white' jobs- hence the hostility to African-American migration northwards, skilled Japanese migrants, Chinese laborers and so on. In America, Australia and Canada the political allies of the non-white poor were often the wealthy landowners,* because they were the ones who benefited from cheap labor. Much of the Democrat success in mobilising working class voters in the cities was by playing to the fears of white ethnic minorities like the Irish and Italians who didn't want African-Americans to be treated the same way as them, because that meant treating them the same way as African-Americans. Any broad working class revolutionary coalition needs those communities. Even if that coalition also includes poor non-whites, at some point their interests will clash- and the revolutionaries will absolutely pick the people who look the same as them, live in the same neighborhoods, go to the same community halls or places of worship and so on.
Secondly, even if this hypothetical racially tolerant Socialist coalition overthrows the existing government, why would their racial tolerance amount to anything in practice? The UK Labour party talked a very good game about anti-imperialism and conservative racism ,and then double downed on Empire in power. The Soviets invited all manner of minority thinkers to conferences in Moscow to denounce imperialism, then proceeded to shred the rights and traditions of their colonised peoples. The American left had five successive terms of total political dominance from 1932 to 1952, and barely gestured towards civil rights until the end.**
Don't get me wrong: Socialist parties were absolutely vital to the development of anti-imperialist and anti-racist movements. I just think that the factors that made that possible would not be present if those parties made the jump to actually trying to maintain power.
A violent struggle that ends in gains for civil rights is far more likely to take the form of a US version of the Northern Irish 'Troubles,' where decades of low-intensity civil war between populations in the South finally ends in some form of negotiated accord. It's a bleak thought, I can picture a timeline where gerrymandering is actually seen as a progressive force, by effectively allocating so many seats that will go to an African-American, so many that will go to a white candidate and so on. Actually, you might see Segregation evolving into something like the 'Pillarisation' of the low countries- where a combination of increased economic power (and force of arms) leads to a more muscular version of Booker T. Washington's Atlanta Compromise. So Southern states end up being something slightly (slightly!) closer to the old lie of 'separate but equal,' where reconstruction ends with black communities achieving a limited amount of institutional power- but just as the Netherlands pretended it had tamed sectarianism by dividing its institutions between Catholics and Protestants, you could end up with some states (Louisiana?) thinking that they had 'solved' their racial problems by making sure that there was always one or two black councilors in New Orleans, one or two black judges to hear particular cases, one black congressional representative and so on.
It would be papering over the problems and still lead to a lot of entrenched injustice, but there'd be some interesting differences.
*The South is somewhat different, obviously, with the transition from slavery to sharecropping/debt peonage benefiting the ruling white classes.
** Yes, yes, I know, the Dixiecrats. My point is that there are always reasons to shove the rights of minorities down the priority list.
First of all- I'm sorry, but late nineteenth century progressivism was incredibly racist. The attempts by the American Populists to build cross-racial solidarity failed because even most people on the left preferred racial to class solidarity. Furthermore, so much of the great racial fears of the period were about non-whites taking 'white' jobs- hence the hostility to African-American migration northwards, skilled Japanese migrants, Chinese laborers and so on. In America, Australia and Canada the political allies of the non-white poor were often the wealthy landowners,* because they were the ones who benefited from cheap labor. Much of the Democrat success in mobilising working class voters in the cities was by playing to the fears of white ethnic minorities like the Irish and Italians who didn't want African-Americans to be treated the same way as them, because that meant treating them the same way as African-Americans. Any broad working class revolutionary coalition needs those communities. Even if that coalition also includes poor non-whites, at some point their interests will clash- and the revolutionaries will absolutely pick the people who look the same as them, live in the same neighborhoods, go to the same community halls or places of worship and so on.
Secondly, even if this hypothetical racially tolerant Socialist coalition overthrows the existing government, why would their racial tolerance amount to anything in practice? The UK Labour party talked a very good game about anti-imperialism and conservative racism ,and then double downed on Empire in power. The Soviets invited all manner of minority thinkers to conferences in Moscow to denounce imperialism, then proceeded to shred the rights and traditions of their colonised peoples. The American left had five successive terms of total political dominance from 1932 to 1952, and barely gestured towards civil rights until the end.**
Don't get me wrong: Socialist parties were absolutely vital to the development of anti-imperialist and anti-racist movements. I just think that the factors that made that possible would not be present if those parties made the jump to actually trying to maintain power.
A violent struggle that ends in gains for civil rights is far more likely to take the form of a US version of the Northern Irish 'Troubles,' where decades of low-intensity civil war between populations in the South finally ends in some form of negotiated accord. It's a bleak thought, I can picture a timeline where gerrymandering is actually seen as a progressive force, by effectively allocating so many seats that will go to an African-American, so many that will go to a white candidate and so on. Actually, you might see Segregation evolving into something like the 'Pillarisation' of the low countries- where a combination of increased economic power (and force of arms) leads to a more muscular version of Booker T. Washington's Atlanta Compromise. So Southern states end up being something slightly (slightly!) closer to the old lie of 'separate but equal,' where reconstruction ends with black communities achieving a limited amount of institutional power- but just as the Netherlands pretended it had tamed sectarianism by dividing its institutions between Catholics and Protestants, you could end up with some states (Louisiana?) thinking that they had 'solved' their racial problems by making sure that there was always one or two black councilors in New Orleans, one or two black judges to hear particular cases, one black congressional representative and so on.
It would be papering over the problems and still lead to a lot of entrenched injustice, but there'd be some interesting differences.
*The South is somewhat different, obviously, with the transition from slavery to sharecropping/debt peonage benefiting the ruling white classes.
** Yes, yes, I know, the Dixiecrats. My point is that there are always reasons to shove the rights of minorities down the priority list.