Unsucessful Pearl Harbor leads to Sucessful Nazi Germany?

The Japanese were not going to get "slaughtered" with an hours notice, or with three or eight or twenty-four. Enough notice for Pearl to be fully alerted and the Kido Butai simple sails away without attacking. Nagumo's orders were specific on that point.

A warning that lets the U.S. get water-tight integrity set and some of the fighters up is the best you can hope for. That makes the attack more of a push. Worst case is the fleet sorties as it brings up steam and the heavies get picked off by some of the TWENTY-EIGHT I Boats in the waters off Oahu waiting for exactly that opportunity or by aircraft from Nagumo's carriers.

Regardless of what the Japanese do at Pearl, they have also invaded Guam, the Philippines, attacked Wake and Midway, and are killing American troops. Even if the Japanese stand pat and don't move a muscle the U.S. will be at war with Germany within six months.

The KM had already sunk the Ruben James, and a U-boat (U-203) had done its very best to attack USS Texas while on Neutrality Patrol during 1941. If that boat had been a bit luckier the U.S. and Germany would have been at war in a week.

In fact their tactical plans expected severe US resistance, the absence of it surprised them. This was partially because it was expected that Nomura would deliver the declaration of war at the same time the Pacific Fleet was destroyed, admittedly.
 
War will still happen. Hitler had an obligation under the Tripartite Pact to declare war on America anyways. Besides, the Japanese will still attack the British, who will pressure the US to join--so an American declaration of war in 1941 is inevitable.

The British had been pressuring the US to declare war for quite a long time, to no avail, ultimately it took actually being attacked for the US to bother to do anything. And the Japanese attack itself was basically just a culmination of bad blood between the US and Japan because Japan expanding into areaas America had interest

Hitler doesn't actually owe Japan much of anything, let alone a treaty, given his historical disposition towards following such things, he never quite forgave Japan for attacking China, a nation he had wanted to cultivate as an ally. In retrospect, declaring war on the US was the biggest easily avoidable mistake that Hitler really ever made at any point in time. He by all means had justification to say that Japan was a terrible ally that made no sense to have on account of being on the other side of the world and leave them to be destroyed by the Americans.

But really, the tipping factor of America's role in the war was the Lend-Lease Act, which in many ways did MORE than the actual troops America sent to fight in the war ever did.

A war between the US and Japan is inevitable, one between Germany and the US, not so much, but even without actual US military involvement in Europe the Germans are still probably going to lose.
 
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