Unsuccessful Hawaiian Invasion, 1941

Doable, yes, large volumes no.The arctic route along the northern coast of Russia - nope. Anything from the North Sea, Baltic Sea, or Black Sea even if the RN is out of the picture will eventually run in to the USN surface ships or subs.

TSRR capacity would far exceed any possible amount of supply. The northern shipping route would be usable for neutral Soviet, not Axis, shipping.
 
(^^^^) repudiated by others. Here's the other thing. Suppose Barbarossa does not go off but the Pacific war does. Pretend one is Stalin. Where does it profit Stalin to torque off the one Pacific power that can successfully damage the CCCP? Would it not be better to let the Americans hammer the Japanese, then take Manchuria (which Stalin nearly did anyway, RTL.) at the endgame, when the Americans are about to execute Downfall? The Americans have cleared the way and made it a Russian east Asian walkover. If Stalin supports Japan, then FDR and then Truman and whoever follows them will have a big permanent bullseye on Moscow.

It is not in Russia's interest to support Japan, or let anyone else attempt to do so, and that is where the whole thing about Europe helping Japan really falls apart. The notion is ridiculous.
 

nbcman

Donor
(^^^^) repudiated by others. Here's the other thing. Suppose Barbarossa does not go off but the Pacific war does. Pretend one is Stalin. Where does it profit Stalin to torque off the one Pacific power that can successfully damage the CCCP? Would it not be better to let the Americans hammer the Japanese, then take Manchuria (which Stalin nearly did anyway, RTL.) at the endgame, when the Americans are about to execute Downfall? The Americans have cleared the way and made it a Russian east Asian walkover. If Stalin supports Japan, then FDR and then Truman and whoever follows them will have a big permanent bullseye on Moscow.

It is not in Russia's interest to support Japan, or let anyone else attempt to do so, and that is where the whole thing about Europe helping Japan really falls apart. The notion is ridiculous.

You know that there is a reason why it would be in Russia's interest to allow the Germans to ship all sorts of kit to the Japanese where it will most likely end up rusting away on some bypassed Pacific island. Heck, they should let the Germans ship all their tanks, artillery and other weapons to Japan if the Nazis are stupid enough to throw the equipment away.
 
You know that there is a reason why it would be in Russia's interest to allow the Germans to ship all sorts of kit to the Japanese where it will most likely end up rusting away on some bypassed Pacific island. Heck, they should let the Germans ship all their tanks, artillery and other weapons to Japan if the Nazis are stupid enough to throw the equipment away.

If you've been following the argument being made, the Russians would certainly have an interest in that happening. So much so they might match the German shipments piece for piece. Much of any equipment sent would be on bypassed islands, much of it would not. The key battles of the Pacific War were on Saipan, Guam and Tinian in 1944. Before that point the USN offensive was narrowing to a focal point - the Marianas. After that the fall of the Marianas, the advance could - and did - open up into different directions, so many possible objectives that a successful defense was impossible. The lack of heavy IJA artillery firepower in these island battles was the dominating feature that made the casualties very one-sided, moreso than was the case in European battles until right near the end of the war. There were no Anzios in the Pacific because the IJA lacked the necessary heavy weapons in quantity.
 
Suppose Barbarossa does not go off but the Pacific war does.

You mean, suppose we imagine what we've been talking about for the past 6 pages?

Where does it profit Stalin to torque off the one Pacific power that can successfully damage the CCCP?

Under Soviet doctrine the capitalist powers needed to bleed each other to exhaustion. If the Japanese and Germans were the weaker side, then it was worth it to the Soviets that this weakness would be corrected. Ideally, the Germans, British, Americans and Japanese might merrily be killing each other for 10 or more years, sinking into exhaustion and making way for glorious socialist revolution.

Would it not be better to let the Americans hammer the Japanese, then take Manchuria (which Stalin nearly did anyway, RTL.) at the endgame, when the Americans are about to execute Downfall? The Americans have cleared the way and made it a Russian east Asian walkover. If Stalin supports Japan, then FDR and then Truman and whoever follows them will have a big permanent bullseye on Moscow.

Best case scenario for Stalin is, while maintaining formal neutrality, to make the Japanese so dependent on the USSR that it falls into the Soviet orbit and goes communist. If the US is going to win the war, then the second best scenario is to launch a massive offensive at just the right moment to capture not only the Japanese empire in Asia, but as much of the Japanese home islands as possible then turn the Soviet sector of the Japanese home islands into one of them there socialist paradises.

It is not in Russia's interest to support Japan, or let anyone else attempt to do so, and that is where the whole thing about Europe helping Japan really falls apart. The notion is ridiculous.

I am amazed by the almost fantastical ideas about how the Soviets would express their interests if not pinned by Barbarossa. Suffice it to say I think you are radically more optimistic about Stalin's enthusiasm for American post-war global domination than I think he actually was.
 
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