Unnotable Nukeing?

I don't know if this should be earlier to go with my early POD for this story I'm cooking up or later since I'm not talking about the story but wondering about a particular aspect that has little to do with the TL itself.

Suppose that there is an industrial war going on. One faction A, is a super-power that started the war. Faction B has 1/3 of the population and the military size at the start of the war, but ends up winning and ends up destroying many of Faction A's military units due to a mixture of luck, force concentration, and leadership.

Faction A refuses to give concessions to end the war and Faction B pushes the issue, landing troops on A's peripheral industrial centers and oversea colonies.

Faction A finishes it's secret weapons, seven atomic bombs. With most of their air force destroyed, sorties are difficult. With no airfields close to B, they have no delivery system available to nuke B to make them agree to status quo antebellum.

So in the span of 3 hours, they launch three nuclear sneak strikes past enemy detection, striking a city in their own industrial heartland and two large cities in their own colonies (all in faction B controlled territory, someone actually asked so I wanted to clarify they aren't self nuking). All of them are supposed to be important links in Faction B's supply line and all were supposed to have large military formations.

The thing though is... their intel sucked. The formations have left a week before. Not only that, but there weren't even military police (to enforce occupation) or supply and logistics personnel in them as Faction B has not yet co-opted buildings for storage or the railroads for their own use. From the direct nuking, they suffered ZERO casualties military or civilian.

Faction B orders supply trucks to go around the hot zone. The equivalent of Marie Curie discovered the effects of radiation in this time line. The command is puzzled and the soldiers frightened but the war continues.

The seven days later, Faction A launches another nuclear strike on an airfield where Faction B kept lots of its forward bombers and some escorts. Some armored units moved nearby and... also were in the blast radius.

Now I have a feeling I'm going to hear "But you didn't give us maps and it's not a real world country so we don't have enough information! But you didn't tell us troop numbers! But we don't even know what's been going on for the whole war! How do you expect us to pick a winner?"

No my question isn't who wins the war since I'm not finalizing the story (or releasing it) but making a draft. My question is, does the fourth nuke become notable?

In OTL the atomic bombing of Hiroshima was notable. It was the first atomic bomb to be dropped. Less morbidly, not too many people know Buzz Aldrin. Who were the teams that went to the Major League Playoffs in 2014 that didn't win the World Series? George Washington was the first king, I mean president, of United States. My point being, there is a certain fame for being the 1st.

So in TTL, 30 years later when people look at in universe history does the fourth nuke get special notability for being the first nuke that caused enemy casualties? Or is it like Nagasaki, which is obviously a well recorded event, but in layman's terms is simply "another nuke on top of what was already done at Hiroshima?" And I don't mean this from Faction B's point of view (in which case the 4th one is going to be notable because they lost many men there and it might have cost them the war but it might not have because I'm not revealing the outcome) but from the history of any nation that isn't the victim of the 4th nuke?
 
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CaliGuy

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Yes, the fourth nuke becomes notable in this TL--though more for exhibiting the level of incompetence of faction A than for anything else.
 

CalBear

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Actually the first use will be the historic event, even though, in this case, it will be seen as as the most spectacular own goal of all time.

We remember Hiroshima because it was first, not because it was instantly decisive (it wasn't), or because it destroyed a famed city (it didn't) or even because it killed the most humans in a single raid (nope, 2nd place, at best).
 
Hiroshima was the first combat use of a nuclear weapon. Many people probably believe that it was the first nuclear explosion on Earth (not on this board, of course). So it would seem at least possible that the first destruction of a city by a nuclear weapon is what would really count ITTL. However, perhaps the lesser 'fame' of the Trinity test is partly due to the fact that it was not announced to the public at the time, though, while the bombing of Hiroshima was immediately reported by the press.

But consider the option IOTL of a "demonstration" of a nuclear explosion somewhere off the coast of Japan. This probably would have been remembered as The First Time They Used The Bomb, even if the demonstration was followed by an actual attack.

About the OP in general: although a non-notable nuclear explosion seems implausible at first thought, a device in the ~10 kT range could well cause few or no immediate casualties if it went off well outside an urban area, say in a forest or a lake. (I tried using Nukemap to scorch some forests near Berlin with a 15 kT bomb, and indeed got 0 casualties from the simulation.) I'm not sure how a failure of intelligence would cause this, but I guess that's up to the TL author.
 

CalBear

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Hiroshima was the first combat use of a nuclear weapon. Many people probably believe that it was the first nuclear explosion on Earth (not on this board, of course). So it would seem at least possible that the first destruction of a city by a nuclear weapon is what would really count ITTL. However, perhaps the lesser 'fame' of the Trinity test is partly due to the fact that it was not announced to the public at the time, though, while the bombing of Hiroshima was immediately reported by the press.

But consider the option IOTL of a "demonstration" of a nuclear explosion somewhere off the coast of Japan. This probably would have been remembered as The First Time They Used The Bomb, even if the demonstration was followed by an actual attack.

About the OP in general: although a non-notable nuclear explosion seems implausible at first thought, a device in the ~10 kT range could well cause few or no immediate casualties if it went off well outside an urban area, say in a forest or a lake. (I tried using Nukemap to scorch some forests near Berlin with a 15 kT bomb, and indeed got 0 casualties from the simulation.) I'm not sure how a failure of intelligence would cause this, but I guess that's up to the TL author.
Trinity isn't as well known because it was a test, not a use. Had it ended there, the weapon would still be mainly unknown.

In the scenario under discussion there are three actual uses against city targets before one that actually manages to do noteworthy damage to an enemy target. If anything, scoring an "own goal" with a WMD would make 1st use even more memorable, for the blatant stupidity if nothing else.
 
Hiroshima was the first combat use of a nuclear weapon. Many people probably believe that it was the first nuclear explosion on Earth (not on this board, of course). So it would seem at least possible that the first destruction of a city by a nuclear weapon is what would really count ITTL. However, perhaps the lesser 'fame' of the Trinity test is partly due to the fact that it was not announced to the public at the time, though, while the bombing of Hiroshima was immediately reported by the press.

Yeah, I know there was the secret tests but those were found out, you know later after the fame of Hiroshima.

About the OP in general: although a non-notable nuclear explosion seems implausible at first thought, a device in the ~10 kT range could well cause few or no immediate casualties if it went off well outside an urban area

I'm imagining 15-20 kiloton TNT equivalent dropped on cities. Now I don't meant "non-notable" as in history forgets. I mean, you know Hiroshima gets so much more fame than Nagasaki. In TTL, I'm wondering if the 4th nuke should get some Hiroshima level fame simply because it wasn't an own goal.

I'm not sure how a failure of intelligence would cause this, but I guess that's up to the TL author.

Ah I don't want to reveal too many details (especially since I might tweak some before release, and I'm releasing to my friends before AH), but Faction A lost the air war. Sorties into area Faction B controls regularly results in their surviving aircraft dropping like flies. The triple nuclear strike actually results in a loss of 70% of planes launched by them. So air recon is out of the question when the 3 target cities were in control by Faction B for 3 months/ 4 months/ 11 months. So they are relying on traditional intelligence networks, which can be wrong. The fact that the formations they were targeting actually existed and were in the cities doesn't help. Remember in OTL how Nazi Germany shot some V-1s and whenever they got hits they were told "too short" (doesn't help that their spies in that city were turned...)?

Yes, the fourth nuke becomes notable in this TL--though more for exhibiting the level of incompetence of faction A than for anything else.

What do you mean? I can see two possibilities.

One, Faction A uses bad intel to chose targets. Then Faction A choses wrong targets. Then the first three nukes. First nuke gets fame for being the first publically used nuke (remember in OTL secret tests were secret). Then Faction A launches 4th nuke. Fourth nuke gets fame for showing Faction A's intel was incompetent and their command dumb enough to trust it.

One, Faction A uses bad intel to chose targets. Then Faction A choses wrong targets. Then the first three nukes. First nuke gets fame for being the first publically used nuke (remember in OTL secret tests were secret). Then Faction A launches 4th nuke. Fourth nuke gets fame for being the first nuke that hits the enemy and it was only possible because of Faction A's incompetence.

Actually the first use will be the historic event, even though, in this case, it will be seen as as the most spectacular own goal of all time.

We remember Hiroshima because it was first, not because it was instantly decisive (it wasn't), or because it destroyed a famed city (it didn't) or even because it killed the most humans in a single raid (nope, 2nd place, at best).

I know Hiroshima probably wasn't instantly decisive, for desotrying a famed city, and it wasn't even the most humans dying in a single day's event.

it was the first public nuke... but it also gets the first for killing enemeies.

In TTL, the first one gets fame for being the first. I was wondering if the fourth gets fame for "first to kill enemy" or if it will be like Nagasaki and get in th history books as "well, just more nuking"
 

CalBear

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...

I know Hiroshima probably wasn't instantly decisive, for desotrying a famed city, and it wasn't even the most humans dying in a single day's event.

it was the first public nuke... but it also gets the first for killing enemeies.

In TTL, the first one gets fame for being the first. I was wondering if the fourth gets fame for "first to kill enemy" or if it will be like Nagasaki and get in th history books as "well, just more nuking"

My guess is that the 4th use is remembered more in the vein of "if first you don't succeed, try, try (try) again".
 

Wimble Toot

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Actually the first use will be the historic event, even though, in this case, it will be seen as as the most spectacular own goal of all time

The first detonation of nuclear weapon did not occur in Japan. It occurred closer to Los Angeles than Tokyo.
 
The first detonation of nuclear weapon did not occur in Japan. It occurred closer to Los Angeles than Tokyo.

I think he knows that, but the first detonation was kind of a secret.

Hiroshima was the first puic deontaiton

There is a reason Hiroshima is more famous than Trinity's tests. Now my question was in TTL obviously the first public nuke detonation gets fame (and gets even more fame for being an own goal since the cities were in Faction B's territorial control but no actual Faction B targets were there) but does the fourth get any mention.
 

CalBear

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The first detonation of nuclear weapon did not occur in Japan. It occurred closer to Los Angeles than Tokyo.
I didn't say first detonation, I specified 1st USE.

Significant difference. Also a major difference between a tower shot and deployment as a weapon.
 

Wimble Toot

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The best place to detonate a nuclear weapon is far away from populated areas, as every nuclear detonation since August 9th 1945 has proved.
 
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