Uniting Germany - Hanover, Bavaria and Saxony
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In the early 1800's, Prussia was already the dominant player in north German affairs. If Bonaparte was to dismember Prussia instead of leaving a festering sore, it would be up to the next aspiring nation to lead Germany - but who?
In this French dominated land, no one would have been allowed to "lead" Germany - that was Bonapart's job. Assume Bonapart falls as IOTL, which German state would have filled the vacuum left by Prussia? A new Westphalia/Rhineland? or one of the "old school" say Saxony (which I doubt) or Hanover (which I very much doubt) There is no one power with the size and strength of Prussia. Hesse Kassel might have had a go (leading a new Westphalia/Rhineland?), it was wealthy enough, but not BIG enough. Bavaria was the wrong religion (and southerners!) that just leaves a resurgent Holy Roman Empire. Would France and Russia allow that?
In this French dominated land, no one would have been allowed to "lead" Germany - that was Bonapart's job. Assume Bonapart falls as IOTL, which German state would have filled the vacuum left by Prussia? A new Westphalia/Rhineland? or one of the "old school" say Saxony (which I doubt) or Hanover (which I very much doubt) There is no one power with the size and strength of Prussia. Hesse Kassel might have had a go (leading a new Westphalia/Rhineland?), it was wealthy enough, but not BIG enough. Bavaria was the wrong religion (and southerners!) that just leaves a resurgent Holy Roman Empire. Would France and Russia allow that?
What if Prussia looses the Seven Weeks War? Hanover defeated the Prussians in battle at least once in OTL. Would Hanover have received sufficient territorial compensation from Western Prussia to make it a relevant power?
I suppose it may depend on whether its an Austrian victory or one arising because of French intervention?
I suppose it may depend on whether its an Austrian victory or one arising because of French intervention?
But who would control the commercial might of Germany - the rising industries of the rhien and rhur, where would Hanover get the man power and money? the Battle of Langensalzawas a victory - sure - but would Hanover have survived many more like that? Again, it leaves Austria to sweep the board.
Having the change in the 19th century is difficult, since by 1800 the Prussian hegemony in Northern Germany is rather entrenched. Even if Napoleon completely abolishes Prussia in 1806, it will probably come back into existence after the French Empire finally overstretches.
Just look at this website:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_größten_deutschen_Städte
In 1700, Berlin had about 30000 inhabitants, the twelth place in the list of largest citiers in the HRE:
Vienna (~114000) was first, Hamburg (~70000) second, the next four were in today's Belgium, Breslau (~40000) was seventh, Cologne (~39000) eighth, Prague ninth, Bruges tenth, Nuremberg (~35.000) eleventh. Following Berlin, there were Frankfurt (~28000), Bremen (~27000), Augsburg (~26000), Munich (~24000), Lübeck (~23000) and Dresden (~22000)
Just 50 years later, the picture has chamged a lot:
Vienna is still the biggest (~175000), but Berlin is number two with ~113000, Hamburg has stagnated with ~75.000 at third place. Breslau (~55000) has grown quite a bit, Dresden (~52000) has grown a lot. Cologne (~43000) has more or lass stagnated.
So the best point to stop Prussian hegemony is between 1700 and 1750. A hugely different war of Austrian Succession might be the best bet: If France had been a bit more thorough in helping the Wittelsbach emperor, we might get a dominant Bavaria reaching from Vienna to Cologne and Prague to Innsbruck, with Silesia going to Saxony, and a second-row Prussia staying comparatively powerless.
The next, rather obvious possibility is Prussia going down in the 7YW.
Just look at this website:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_größten_deutschen_Städte
In 1700, Berlin had about 30000 inhabitants, the twelth place in the list of largest citiers in the HRE:
Vienna (~114000) was first, Hamburg (~70000) second, the next four were in today's Belgium, Breslau (~40000) was seventh, Cologne (~39000) eighth, Prague ninth, Bruges tenth, Nuremberg (~35.000) eleventh. Following Berlin, there were Frankfurt (~28000), Bremen (~27000), Augsburg (~26000), Munich (~24000), Lübeck (~23000) and Dresden (~22000)
Just 50 years later, the picture has chamged a lot:
Vienna is still the biggest (~175000), but Berlin is number two with ~113000, Hamburg has stagnated with ~75.000 at third place. Breslau (~55000) has grown quite a bit, Dresden (~52000) has grown a lot. Cologne (~43000) has more or lass stagnated.
So the best point to stop Prussian hegemony is between 1700 and 1750. A hugely different war of Austrian Succession might be the best bet: If France had been a bit more thorough in helping the Wittelsbach emperor, we might get a dominant Bavaria reaching from Vienna to Cologne and Prague to Innsbruck, with Silesia going to Saxony, and a second-row Prussia staying comparatively powerless.
The next, rather obvious possibility is Prussia going down in the 7YW.
While my PoD is before 1800, there's not a lot of change in Europe until the end of the Napoleonic Wars.
Based on a map Susano created, where Prussia got Belgium, I have the Prussians taken down a peg in 1830, and severely annoying the rest of the German states. So, no Zollverein based on Prussia, which really helped them cement their position. Also, the map gave Silesia to Austria (no, we've never been able to figure out why), so at the end of 1830, Prussia has lost Belgium, the Rhine Province, and basically united everyone else in Germany against them. They still have Westfalen, with e.g. Essen, as a major industrial center, but they've lost their other two (Belgium and Rheinprovinz, iTTL; Rheinprovinz and Silesia compared to OTL), and they're economically weaker due to the developing customs unions excluding them, rather than based on them.
So, 'Germany' will end up mostly unified (eventually, hasn't happened yet, still working on this stuff), without Prussia - or Austria, which is why I say 'mostly' unified. I use 'kleinstdeutsch' as opposed to OTL's 'kleindeutsch' Reich.
I think that knocking them down a peg, and getting the rest of the German states legitimately worried about Prussian aspirations is a necessary condition for a non-Prussian based union. Beyond that, it may need for a little luck to go to the Non-Prussians...
Based on a map Susano created, where Prussia got Belgium, I have the Prussians taken down a peg in 1830, and severely annoying the rest of the German states. So, no Zollverein based on Prussia, which really helped them cement their position. Also, the map gave Silesia to Austria (no, we've never been able to figure out why), so at the end of 1830, Prussia has lost Belgium, the Rhine Province, and basically united everyone else in Germany against them. They still have Westfalen, with e.g. Essen, as a major industrial center, but they've lost their other two (Belgium and Rheinprovinz, iTTL; Rheinprovinz and Silesia compared to OTL), and they're economically weaker due to the developing customs unions excluding them, rather than based on them.
So, 'Germany' will end up mostly unified (eventually, hasn't happened yet, still working on this stuff), without Prussia - or Austria, which is why I say 'mostly' unified. I use 'kleinstdeutsch' as opposed to OTL's 'kleindeutsch' Reich.
I think that knocking them down a peg, and getting the rest of the German states legitimately worried about Prussian aspirations is a necessary condition for a non-Prussian based union. Beyond that, it may need for a little luck to go to the Non-Prussians...
If the Wettins gain Silesia they will have more Polish sympathy with them especially with the Poles in Silesia, and Poland-Lithuania will be under Wettins for a longer time perhaps even in the Present and they don't even need to propose to give Posen to Prussia in exchange for their rule.
