It occurred to me that a couple of my recent dreams would work well together as a timeline, though some of the background details necessary would need to be worked out.
Is there a scenario where Sweden does not lose Finland to Russia during the Napoleonic wars? Ideally, we still need to get rid of the king and get Bernadotte on the throne, as his still being in French employ would be too great a butterfly. If Sweden doesn't lose Finland, then in the eventual peace Norway probably remains unified with Denmark.
The other alternative is to have Russia lose Finland to revolution in 1905, seeing German support for the Finns and thus not being able to push back once the autocracy is stabilised at home. For this, it may need Wilhelm II to be dead, so his sentimental attachment to cousin Nicky doesn't get in the way. But it could perhaps be a butterfly of the below.
The main element of the first dream is the German naval defeat of Spain in 1898. It is assumed possible that this could have occurred in the Far East using OTL forces, from what I have read, but what would have been available to achieve it in the Caribbean I am not sure? Also, given that Germany and Spain occupy the same continent, there would have been some naval aspects in home waters.
One possibility, again, is a Kaiser Heinrich scenario where instead of beginning to be obsessed by large battlefleets, Germany has had more of a cruiser development. The other, I guess, is that Germany does actually have the reserves in European waters to take out the Spanish fleet at Santiago, but will need to rely in home waters upon its smaller coast defence battleships (Siegfriend and Bayern classes IIRC).
In victory over Spain, Germany annexes the Philippines as well as the Carolines and Marianas. American pressure would make sure that any Caribbean outcome would be an independent Cuba, probably with no German influence. Germany could trade off US recognition of their annexation of the Philippines against agreeing to let the U.S. have sole influence in Cuba.
One interesting question is what happens to Tsingtao? Do the Germans still go ahead and seize it off China, or will they be satisfied, or have their hands full, with the Philippines?
Having the Philippines means that from the start the Germans base a larger force in the Far East. For the sake of the second dream, this should soon include some or all of the Brandenburg class battleships, akin to how the Russians based out of Port Arthur.
What effect would German presence in the Philippines have on Japan? IIRC Japan had contacts with the Filipino independence movement prior to 1898 so aren't going to be too thrilled to see another European colonial power replace Spain, rather than a native rule that Japan might hope to dominate. On the other hand, Germany might be seen as a potential counter to Russia in the wider theatre?
If we don't want to touch the Russo-Japanese War, then we still have to accept that Rozhestvensky might well put into Manila. Whether he sits there as a substitute for French Vietnam, or gets on his way earlier is a question. If he gets a move on earlier than historical, though still with the pause at Madagascar, what effect will this have on TsuShima? Well, for one thing Felkerzam won't drop dead on the eve of the battle!
It's hard to see how things could actually go worse for the Russians, except that a stop in a proper port like Manila might encourage the Admiralty to actually send out the self-sinkers and lumber Rozhestvensky with ships like the Korniloff and the Minin. Quite what having these as a tail is going to do to his battleline is an interesting thought. It is also possible that the cruiser battle might go differently, and that rather than running away (and in effect saving his ships) Enqvist might get them sunk.
A harder end to the Russo-Japanese War might well see national revolutions break out in Russia. Germany backs the Finns to establish an independent Finland, if we ditch the original idea about Sweden to keep things simpler. The Tsar will have to be content with putting down the Poles, which the Germans will be quite happy to see.
With Germany operating a force of some size out of Manila Fisher won't be ditching the overseas squadrons, and indeed if we go with a Kaiser Heinrich scenario and no all-out Tirpitz Plan, then dreadnought too is not coming along so soon.
Britain will continue to operate a full-strength Mediterranean Fleet and after the expanding of the Entente also operate out of French bases.
By 1914, German efforts to court the Turks are succeeding better than British ones, and Germany has agreed to sell two of its station battleships from the Far East to the Turks, probably ones that had already returned home once to be rebuilt before heading back out there in 1906 or so.
Battleship design is in the early dreadnought stage, but ironically the battlecruiser has grown beyond this, due to a development out of the armoured cruiser, which sees things like Russia's 10"-gunned Rurik, and the Japanese hybrids. By 1914, Germany is operating a Mediterranean Squadron of its own in Goeben and Breslau, intended to work with the Italian and Austrian fleets due to the size of both the French and British fleets in the theatre.
So, 1914 in many ways goes according to OTL, and by early Summer war is looming. The two German battleships are advised to avoid the Suez Canal, and make their way round the Horn. As they approach the Straits of Gibraltar, a decision has to be made by the German admiral. To proceed into the Mediterranean would take them past the British fleet at Algiers. The Turkish senior commander wants to combine his part-crews and take over one ship, whilst taking the other one "under escort" but the German admiral eventually decides that is too risky.
British airship photographic reconnaissance over Istanbul shows the Goeben and Breslau there, taking on supplies alongside the two Turkish cruisers.
The German admiral takes the two battleships West of Ireland and past the Faeroes to the Arctic naval base of Petsamo in German-allied Finland.
The British Baltic fleet is sailing off Turku and Oulu as war breaks out, but information reaches the Finnish commanders late, not allowing them to use their coastal defence battleships or torpedo boats against the British.
That sort of ties up the dreams into a timeline. The question is now to make something of it in more detail, tie up loose ends, and launch upon a world war in these circumstances...
Grey Wolf
Is there a scenario where Sweden does not lose Finland to Russia during the Napoleonic wars? Ideally, we still need to get rid of the king and get Bernadotte on the throne, as his still being in French employ would be too great a butterfly. If Sweden doesn't lose Finland, then in the eventual peace Norway probably remains unified with Denmark.
The other alternative is to have Russia lose Finland to revolution in 1905, seeing German support for the Finns and thus not being able to push back once the autocracy is stabilised at home. For this, it may need Wilhelm II to be dead, so his sentimental attachment to cousin Nicky doesn't get in the way. But it could perhaps be a butterfly of the below.
The main element of the first dream is the German naval defeat of Spain in 1898. It is assumed possible that this could have occurred in the Far East using OTL forces, from what I have read, but what would have been available to achieve it in the Caribbean I am not sure? Also, given that Germany and Spain occupy the same continent, there would have been some naval aspects in home waters.
One possibility, again, is a Kaiser Heinrich scenario where instead of beginning to be obsessed by large battlefleets, Germany has had more of a cruiser development. The other, I guess, is that Germany does actually have the reserves in European waters to take out the Spanish fleet at Santiago, but will need to rely in home waters upon its smaller coast defence battleships (Siegfriend and Bayern classes IIRC).
In victory over Spain, Germany annexes the Philippines as well as the Carolines and Marianas. American pressure would make sure that any Caribbean outcome would be an independent Cuba, probably with no German influence. Germany could trade off US recognition of their annexation of the Philippines against agreeing to let the U.S. have sole influence in Cuba.
One interesting question is what happens to Tsingtao? Do the Germans still go ahead and seize it off China, or will they be satisfied, or have their hands full, with the Philippines?
Having the Philippines means that from the start the Germans base a larger force in the Far East. For the sake of the second dream, this should soon include some or all of the Brandenburg class battleships, akin to how the Russians based out of Port Arthur.
What effect would German presence in the Philippines have on Japan? IIRC Japan had contacts with the Filipino independence movement prior to 1898 so aren't going to be too thrilled to see another European colonial power replace Spain, rather than a native rule that Japan might hope to dominate. On the other hand, Germany might be seen as a potential counter to Russia in the wider theatre?
If we don't want to touch the Russo-Japanese War, then we still have to accept that Rozhestvensky might well put into Manila. Whether he sits there as a substitute for French Vietnam, or gets on his way earlier is a question. If he gets a move on earlier than historical, though still with the pause at Madagascar, what effect will this have on TsuShima? Well, for one thing Felkerzam won't drop dead on the eve of the battle!
It's hard to see how things could actually go worse for the Russians, except that a stop in a proper port like Manila might encourage the Admiralty to actually send out the self-sinkers and lumber Rozhestvensky with ships like the Korniloff and the Minin. Quite what having these as a tail is going to do to his battleline is an interesting thought. It is also possible that the cruiser battle might go differently, and that rather than running away (and in effect saving his ships) Enqvist might get them sunk.
A harder end to the Russo-Japanese War might well see national revolutions break out in Russia. Germany backs the Finns to establish an independent Finland, if we ditch the original idea about Sweden to keep things simpler. The Tsar will have to be content with putting down the Poles, which the Germans will be quite happy to see.
With Germany operating a force of some size out of Manila Fisher won't be ditching the overseas squadrons, and indeed if we go with a Kaiser Heinrich scenario and no all-out Tirpitz Plan, then dreadnought too is not coming along so soon.
Britain will continue to operate a full-strength Mediterranean Fleet and after the expanding of the Entente also operate out of French bases.
By 1914, German efforts to court the Turks are succeeding better than British ones, and Germany has agreed to sell two of its station battleships from the Far East to the Turks, probably ones that had already returned home once to be rebuilt before heading back out there in 1906 or so.
Battleship design is in the early dreadnought stage, but ironically the battlecruiser has grown beyond this, due to a development out of the armoured cruiser, which sees things like Russia's 10"-gunned Rurik, and the Japanese hybrids. By 1914, Germany is operating a Mediterranean Squadron of its own in Goeben and Breslau, intended to work with the Italian and Austrian fleets due to the size of both the French and British fleets in the theatre.
So, 1914 in many ways goes according to OTL, and by early Summer war is looming. The two German battleships are advised to avoid the Suez Canal, and make their way round the Horn. As they approach the Straits of Gibraltar, a decision has to be made by the German admiral. To proceed into the Mediterranean would take them past the British fleet at Algiers. The Turkish senior commander wants to combine his part-crews and take over one ship, whilst taking the other one "under escort" but the German admiral eventually decides that is too risky.
British airship photographic reconnaissance over Istanbul shows the Goeben and Breslau there, taking on supplies alongside the two Turkish cruisers.
The German admiral takes the two battleships West of Ireland and past the Faeroes to the Arctic naval base of Petsamo in German-allied Finland.
The British Baltic fleet is sailing off Turku and Oulu as war breaks out, but information reaches the Finnish commanders late, not allowing them to use their coastal defence battleships or torpedo boats against the British.
That sort of ties up the dreams into a timeline. The question is now to make something of it in more detail, tie up loose ends, and launch upon a world war in these circumstances...
Grey Wolf
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