United States taking the initiative in the Pacific War

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

We had a Causus Belli in the Panay incident in 37 and we didn't take it and go to war. Lots of people in congress and out of the Government wanted to but cooler heads prevailed on both sides with Japanese sending reparations, dismissal of the IJN and Army officers involved, official apologies from the Japanese Ambassador to the President and apologies from the Emperor him self to the Ambassador Grew in Tokyo. We knew we were not prepared for a war in the Pacific at the time and needed to keep things from happening.

Finally, someone mentions Panay.

Technically, the OP says Roosevelt decides to declare war after Barbarossa. It DOESN'T specifically say that's when the PoD is.

I could imagine a PoD after the Panay incident where the US realizes it can't go to war then - but does start to prepare hard, knowing that war is coming. Use the Japanese non-apology plus amplified (rather than ignored / suppressed) stories of Japanese atrocities, etc., and you might be able to get a significantly earlier build up.
Get Wake built up with sub pens, bunkers, etc., and more forces to the Philippines. Guam may be undefendable. But being able to run subs out of Wake instead of Hawaii / Australia would be huge.

 

[Garrison]

Finally, someone mentions Panay.

Technically, the OP says Roosevelt decides to declare war after Barbarossa. It DOESN'T specifically say that's when the PoD is.

I could imagine a PoD after the Panay incident where the US realizes it can't go to war then - but does start to prepare hard, knowing that war is coming. Use the Japanese non-apology plus amplified (rather than ignored / suppressed) stories of Japanese atrocities, etc., and you might be able to get a significantly earlier build up.
Get Wake built up with sub pens, bunkers, etc., and more forces to the Philippines. Guam may be undefendable. But being able to run subs out of Wake instead of Hawaii / Australia would be huge.

But they don't know war is coming, that would be a massive and expensive extrapolation based on a single incident. That's a hell of lot of money to squeeze out of Congress at a time when the military, especially the army is very rundown. Honestly can something precipitate an earlier US entry into WW2? yes. is the US likely to be any better prepared for war than it was in late 1941? Pretty much no.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

they don't know war is coming, that would be a massive and expensive extrapolation based on a single incident

It's hardly a single incident. It's part of an 'out of control Japanese army' pattern.
Play up Panay. Play up the Rape of Nanjing. Start imposing embargoes earlier. Watch the Japanese overreact. Play THAT up....

It's going to be obvious that the IJA won't stop until someone stops them, and the KMT/GMD sure isn't up to the task.

Sell the building of warships and merchant ships as a New Deal stimulus, not hoping for war, but preparing for the possibility

It wouldn't be easy, agreed. But possible? I think maybe.

 

[CalBear]

But they don't know war is coming, that would be a massive and expensive extrapolation based on a single incident. That's a hell of lot of money to squeeze out of Congress at a time when the military, especially the army is very rundown. Honestly can something precipitate an earlier US entry into WW2? yes. is the US likely to be any better prepared for war than it was in late 1941? Pretty much no.

It is pretty much impossible to get the funding until the Wehrmacht balls up the French Army and tosses them into the bin.

That scared (with good reason) the absolute shit out of Congress and they went from handing out dimes for defense to authorizing, in a single go, new construction of 385,000 tons of capital ships, 200,000 tons of carriers, 450,000 tons of cruisers, 250,000 tons of destroyers, 75,000 tons of submarines. $50M for "patrol , escort and miscellaneous vessel.s and 100,000 tons of naval auxiliary shipping, while also prohibiting the scapping of any currently commissioned USN vessel (except ship's boats) It also provided $240M to construct new facilities at various navy yards to allow the construction of new shipping, munitions, armor, and other essentials. Lastly it authorized the construction of 15,000 naval aircraft

Two months later, Congress approved the Selective Service Act. $8,000,000,000 was also allocated for the U.S. Army to grow to 1.2 million troops, with all equipment and materials needed to field that force ($8B represented a budget greater than the TOTAL provided to maintain the Army since 1920)

The Navy that stomped the Japanese flat sprang from this act. Same goes for the original Selective Service act and the initial increase in strength to 1.2 million Army personnel that led, within 5 years, to a total of 18,000,000 personnel passing through the Armed Forces.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

It's hardly a single incident. It's part of an 'out of control Japanese army' pattern.
Play up Panay. Play up the Rape of Nanjing. Start imposing embargoes earlier. Watch the Japanese overreact. Play THAT up....

It's going to be obvious that the IJA won't stop until someone stops them, and the KMT/GMD sure isn't up to the task.

Sell the building of warships and merchant ships as a New Deal stimulus, not hoping for war, but preparing for the possibility

It wouldn't be easy, agreed. But possible? I think maybe.

For me, increased military funding as a boost to the economy might work, but needs the right kind of president (unfortunately possible candidates are way outside my area of knowledge). I'd see increased warlikeness either to draw attention from all the spending or due to having a big stick and being willing to use it over Panay, Nanking etc.

I'd think a second term president would be more likely to try the distraction if they'd pushed for the spending in the first place, but could see the second option working for either a second term president who wants to show they were right to spend up or simply can behave like that or a freshly elected one who sees an opportunity to make a name for themselves.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

But that means the Japanese start the war, not a surprise declaration of war by the US against the Japanese, that is not the scenario the OP proposed.

Not necessarily. A US sub captain may think he is being attacked and open fire by mistake. You are simply not going to get a massive preemptive strike by the USN cos FDR feels like it.

The USN has no capability to even find a worthwhile target. The Japanese can spy on the USN at Pearl while having a picnic. The IJN is scattered around the Inland Sea and in northern Japan, or at Truk. What are you going to attack? Where is it, I mean its not like the US has a consulate with legitimate coded comms broadcasting down the hill from the picnic spot and Americans stand out a bit in Asia.

OTOH its conceivable that you get something like the Gulf of Tonkin resolution in response to perceived but not actual Japanese aggression. But we know what the US plan was in that instance. Take a Base on the Marshalls and as Kwajalein is garrisoned by maybe 400 base force personnel a dozen AA guns and 18 recon aircraft. I reckon 2nd Marines can take em.


On Panay incident this happens on 12 December 1937. With Apologies but no admission of guilt on 23/24 December and compensation paid in April 38.

On 4 March 38 the second Vinson Act is introduced authorizing a de facto increase in USN size (its not used as building but to retain ships that would otherwise have been scrapped under the London treaty), 3000 aircraft and a study on where to put additional air and naval bases and defences. This is a pretty strong response and bear in mind this is an Isolationist US with an election in 40.

 

[Spherical_light]

I saw a similar thread somewhere here a while back that I took opportunity to construct a bit of a possible scenario [no target though].

Basically using Enterprise on the Wake Island run and expanding that to include an attack on Japan.

Please note that my idea was just using what resources Enterprise would've had with her to provoke a Japanese response while keeping knowledge of the plan to a single force to enhance plausible deniability should problems arise.

Not a well thought out idea, as all it amounted to was attacking Japan at about the same time as the KB was enroute to its own attack point.

Yes, I fully understand the ramifications of attacking Japan first generally was not a good thing politically speaking... Even if you do go back to the Panay incident, the difficulty there is that the USN was not ready for such an adventure, much less the Army. Declaring war at around the time of Germany going east still would have meant some time to get prepared and ready to embark on said hostile adventure. Regardless if America declares war or gets attacked. Any sort of pre-emptive wardec would mean that a resulting hostile action would be limited in nature for a period of time due to logistical issues [supplies, crew, etc].