United States of Latin Africa

[Hawkeye]

The United States of Latin Africa was a hypothetical country proposed by Barthelemy Boganda, first president of what is now the Central African Republic. Being pragmatic, Boganda realised that the CAR wouldn't do well economically and wanted to create a federation out of French Equatorial Africa plus the Congo and Angola of which the CAR would be a federal unit. But this quickly fell apart due to regional jealousy and personal ambitions.

But what if somehow we could make this work? Let's say that Felix Eboue who lead the colony to support the Gaullist faction of the Free French Forces in WWII survived his heart attack in 1944 and works toward making Equatorial Africa more of a cohesive entity amongst its population. The Central African colonies join together after their independence. Barthelemy gets elected as it's first president and aligns himself with the French gaining their support. The embryonic USLA invades the Congo after the turmoil that erupts after the Belgians pull out and the collapse of Lumumba's regime. Although their might some resistance to this, the lack of a unified movement against the USLA keeps the region firmly under it's control. Then finally, the USLA goes to war against Portugal to "liberate" Angola and succeeds.

So how does this affect the Cold War now that there's a major player in Africa on the level of Brazil or maybe India in geopolitical power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Latin_Africa

 

[Luminous]

Well, let's look at population figures. French Equatorial Africa and its successor countries would have a population of roughly 47 million. In this timeline, it might be a bit higher because Central Africa wouldn't be quite the mess it is. So, let's say that its population would be roughly 50 million.

The Congo has a population of roughly 82 million; Angola has a population of 26 million. So an invasion and subjugation of those two nations would put the European-educated, French Elite of Equatorial Africa as minority rulers of, by modern times, 100 million people.

Or, let me put it in perspective and assume that population ratios are roughly going to maintain themselves as equal (as I haven't dug through and examined population growth). There are 1.64 Congolese per French Equatorial Africans, and 0.52 Angolans for the same. That's an extremely large ratio to try and subjugate, especially as the tendency will be to consolidate power in the center of French Equatorial Africa (Cameroon, particularly).

On top of that, the defining aspect of much of that region will be its religion, as that is a major unifier. (moreso than language, although only Angola speaks Portuguese) And, while the Congo was falling apart and throwing out the European and European-educated Africans... to be replaced by another set will not likely be met with any sort of joy or acceptance. Also, the Islamic Africans that reside in the North of country will be opposed about that Latinization.

At best, you will have a resource exporting nation that uses its wealth to try and fuel growth at the center of its power while having to put down constant rebellions and troubles in the south. The Congo would likely be kept as a single unit... which would bring many problems as the Congo by itself is larger than Equatorial Africa, and as such there would be immense difficulties in shifting that power south. That would not help its standing on the international stage. Somehow, if this managed to work, the west would likely fund the country as its resources would be of vital importance, but there might be trouble down the line that would eventually preclude a later split.

To be clear, I think Equatorial Africa as a single unit could work. The center of power would undoubtedly be Cameroon. Gabon wanted to stay with France OTL, but it, R. Congo, and CAR could likely be integrated well, especially if there are long term ties with France proper. Chad would be the most difficult portion to integrate, but likely could be done. It seems really unlikely for a very nascent unit which barely had any cohesion OTL would be able to invade and conquer a much larger country and unilaterally conquer it. After all, the OTL objective of the US and the west was to maintain the Congo as an independent unit once the Belgians pulled out; letting another country invade and conquer it would potentially create a breeding ground for communist rebels and forces to intervene there and elsewhere through Africa. This is especially the point if they are unilaterally invaded by a much smaller country which places the Congo in nearly the same situation it was before.

The better choice for what you're suggesting might be for Equatorial Africa to unilaterally assist the DRC alongside the US and any other western forces against the rebels in the west. An Equatorial Africa that does intervene will likely be able to play off that intervention with a friendlier relation with the Congolese government. Instead of forcing EA to develop the DRC as an economic colony, it would partner with it as an ally. They could be the core axis of a Latin Africa project, and maybe EA could prove to be a bit of a moderating force in the DRC/Zaire and prevent the worst of its dictatorial abuses.

Then, sometime later (in the 90s) when some other countries in the Francophonie jump on board, then you might see some talks of some informal economic union that might lead to greater political ties. Then this power bloc starts to have some real influence.

If not, and they rush into it... this Latin Africa becomes a resource colony that is beset by even more brushfire wars than OTL, at least outside the core territories of the north and the coastal cities. I fear that it may end up falling apart once the Cold War ends and the reasons for the US and others to support this conglomeration of fractious states evaporates.

 

[Hawkeye]

Darn, that's a bit of a wrench in my plans. Maybe Belgium collaborates with France?

 

[Luminous]

Darn, that's a bit of a wrench in my plans. Maybe Belgium collaborates with France?

I think you're just trying to do too much too quickly with this sort of supposition. Having a unified Equatorial Africa that is reasonably developed and considered part of the First World would be a major development. I mean First World in the older sense, more so, even if economic development in the Interior takes quite a while to reach western standards. Having a unified Equatorial Africa that has a defined regional goal will bring stability to its portion of Africa; who knows what it might lead to.

Swallowing up the Congo whole is not something to be done lightly; it would likely be far better for the less populous but more developed country to be a guiding hand in Zaire/DRC. Let them grow into an alliance, common market, common currency, etc. Then, when all is said and done, you have a strong relationship that is based on mutual respect and have a union that is everything but merged together.

Many African countries have the potential to be power players, but time must be given to them. Equatorial can be a leader and exercise outdone influence on the rest of its neighbors. Just have to get to that point first.

 

[rfmcdonald]

This does not seem like a polity with much chance of coming about. What are the odds of even a successful Equatorial Africa being able to take Congo, never mind Portuguese Angola?