United States going full turtle in 1930?
- Thread starter reksfilms
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Anchises
Banned
If the Isolationism lasts into the late 40s, people in Europe better learn singing the Horst-Wessel-Lied....
And I don't want to talk about what happens in the East, to minorities or politically decent people.
WW2: without the industrial strength of the USA (assuming that Japan limits itself to grabbing European colonies in Asia)
1939-1941: Blitzkrieg phase
late 41-43: "balanced phase"
43-45/46: Germany becomes the 800 pound gorilla again
ITTL the "Rüstungswunder" (yeah I know, but I use that term for simplicity) kicks in, while the Soviet war industry collapses and massive starvation kicks in. GB is probaby dead broke at this point because Japan either is conquering India or at least blockading it.
Ramontxo
Donor
This have been adressed before, but with the USA going "fuck you I dont care who wins" in Europe there is no reason (or lógic) for the UK and the Ducths to stop selling oil to Japan. So no British Japan war, no fall of Singapur and better case for the nazis being a stalemate in Europe.
Economically this screws the US for at least another decade. Without WWII as we know it the reconstruction of the US industrial plant does not occur, the US does not absorb a huge portion of the wolds capitol. Up through the 1930s Europe purchased over half of the US exports, and even at the depths of the Depression exports constituted around 60% of US production of raw materials and finished goods. A German dominated Europe would be favoring internal production over imports, continuing the 1930s protectionism. Less capitol would flow from Europe to the US banks. All this leave the US (and many others with low Depression era levels of economic activity. The massive economic boom or growth of the 140s-60s does not occur, large swaths of the US (and others economies) remain stagnate and what prosperity returns is confined to a relatively low portion of the population.
Any return to pre 1914 levels of economic activity depend among other things on the business competency of the nazi regime. Given the nature of the kleptocratic nazi leadership of the 1930s & 40s one can't be too optimistic about this.
Over the long haul the US can reorient its economy to depend more on the Americas, and portions of China, but it will be a very long time before that replaces Europe as the #1 source of sales and export income.
Ramontxo
Donor
Without American help (or hope of) the Javan oilfields would be open and if necesary credits would be given.
Only if the Dutch and Brits are not at war with Germany. If that's the case they need the oil and have little money to lend Japan.
Beyond that why would a isolationist US not sell oil to Japan? Petroleum was one of the few really profitable US exports in the Depression. Not selling to a regular customer makes no sense.
Or the Soviet Hymn more likely, since Hitler is still a complete fuckwad who will still invade the Soviet Union like a fuckin speed-freak idiot.
Anchises
Banned
Which is a rather simplistic view.
Hitler had valid strategical reasons to invade the Soviet Union and conventional wisdom of the time made it seem like Germany could easily succeed.
And I still don't get how a starved Soviet Union, with a hilariously insufficient logistical system is going to "sweep the Nazis away and push towards the channel".
If the Americans are not conquering Sicily in 1943 the Germans are likely to employ a more defensive strategy. And German industrial output for the Heer is going to be much stronger.
There is simply no way that the Soviet Union will be able to endure the titanic casualties that driving the Nazis out necessitates, without the massive and diversified U.S. aid of OTL. And ITTL the clock is racing against the Soviets because they are starving.
Sure, Hitler was a criminal and insane mass murderer and made insane mistakes but he wasn't "dumber" than Stalin.
Imagine that not the Soviets but the Nazis recieved Lend and Lease. I don't want too....
RamscoopRaider
Donor
One reason why would be that AFAIK Japan even without the embargo was burning through its hard currency faster than it could earn it, AFAIK by the end of 1942 Japan would run out of it, and an isolationist US is unlikely to give Japan below market rates or financing, so if Japan runs out of money, the US won't sell
Ian_W
Banned
An obvious step is the Dutch and/or Brits trading oil for weapons in 1940.
I could see these going into Allied service, for example.
http://www.combinedfleet.com/Wakatake_c.htm
Did GB not have more oil than it could actually transport, especially from the far east when it had ME/Persian or Caribbean oil closer?
That point has been raised many times. It leads to the capacity of the Norwegian and Greek tanker fleets, what the real capacity vs gross capacity was, port capacity and storage. The last was a problem as the operating areas often had effective zero storage capacity, so tankers had to be deadlined as storage facilities. Plus the Germans and Italians we're trying really hard to sink the tankers.
How short tanker transport the Brits we're varies by year and month.
That is actually a good point. Communists weren't exactly popular, so with just a bit of propaganda, the Nazis might get Lend-Lease.
Picture this: Rather than dividing Poland, Hitler agrees (secretly) to let the Soviet Union have the whole thing for some grain and oil up front. Stalin pays up, and now the Russians are the aggressors, with Hitler attacking the Soviet Union to "liberate" Poland. It means France and the UK are at the LEAST friendly neutrals to Germany, and more likely are standing beside Hitler driving back the Soviets.
Just what were the "prior engagements of the US" towards the end of 1930?! It wasn't a member of the League of Nations or even of the World Court...
Nazi Germany was almost certainly going to lose the war against the USSR.
It benefitted from an extremely incompetent political and military soviet leadership and was unable to win because nazism comprised its own fatal contradiction. The only way to defeat the USSR was to liberate the Peoples of the western part of the USSR, not to conquer a lebensraum at their expense and to mass murder 70% of them and reduce the 30% remaining into slavery.
Lend-lease’s effect for the soviet war effort has long been way overestimated and needs being debunked.
Lend-lease was always marginal (from 0,5% to 10% of soviet military production) and, most importantly, most of lend-lease US military equipments were shipped to the USSR in 1944-1945. That is way after the soviets had decisively won the war on their own.
The soviet population was 190 million people in 1941. It was most of all this huge demographic reserve that enabled the USSR to endure dramatic losses and to bring in new troops after their incompetent commanders and their tyrannical rulers had sent to death millions of soldiers. This and the industrial capacity of the USSR that dwarved German military production from the beginning to the end of the war.