Assuming there is strong(er) Federalist feeling in New York, and assuming that New York and the New England states resolve extant territorial claims, I could see New York at least leaning into the "join New England" camp eventually.
In regards to the points
@Dan1988 made, would New England become "basically the OTL US, but a parliamentary democracy, rather than a presidential one"?
Meanwhile, the Continental Congress develops into a "basically the OTL US, but smaller, and a bit less centralised"?
As to the Carolinas and Georgia - I really don't know how likely they would be to unify, even under a loose confederation. On the other hand, Long North Carolina and Big Georgia would have more issues keeping their interior territories under control, particularly with Natives and long lines of communication and supply.
Even assuming the Obligatory Confederation of Carolina unifies, would North Carolina and Georgia agree to spin off their western lands to form new states?