United kingdom German peace 1940/1941

Rommel (or Graziani) takes the Suez and/or Franco either joins the Axis and takes Gibraltar or allows German troops through there territory to take it. Germany would cut off the UK from resources and Germany would have the Middle East oil. With German subs taking a toll in the North Atlantic and UK supplies having to go around the Cape of good hope, taking months, it might put enough pressure on Churchill to sue for peace. With dozens of German divisions freed up and no oil shortage the Soviet Union collapses in 42/43. With the UK out of the war, the US never enters the European theater. Of course, Japan would see what was happening and take Russian Siberia.
 
The German invasion of France ends in a stalemate. The German economy collapses without being able to loot France and the Army turns on the Nazi's and ask for a cease fire. A conference is then called to settle the borders of Germany and Eastern Europe.
 
Rommel (or Graziani) takes the Suez and/or Franco either joins the Axis and takes Gibraltar or allows German troops through there territory to take it.

So that the British take the Canary Islands and promptly begin to starve Spain. Bad deal - and that's why Franco did not do that.

Germany would cut off the UK from resources and Germany would have the Middle East oil.

From Suez to the oilfields there are still a few hundred kilometers of desert with no rail lines.

With German subs taking a toll in the North Atlantic and UK supplies having to go around the Cape of good hope, taking months,

Huh, that's exactly the OTL situation. If British convoys went through the Med, it was chiefly to resupply Malta. Most stuff did go around the cape.
 
Germany bounces off France in 1940 due to an earlier and more effective military rearmament by Britain, France and the lowlands who are also better prepared.

Casualties on all sides mount and stalemate ensues.

Italy not sure which victors table to join sits on her hands.

Come mid 1941 with Russia becoming increasingly belligerent and supply's not forthcoming as promised a cabal of German officers seeing the writing on the wall 'writ large' lead a coup ousting the NAZI leadership and approach the Western powers with peace proposals.

Not sure that it would be a status quo more a status quo ante bellum with perhaps some logical redrawing of boarders.

Russia hoping that she could take advantage of the European powers having beaten themselves over the heads for a couple of years actually find the place an armed camp for the next 2 decades.
 
So that the British take the Canary Islands and promptly begin to starve Spain. Bad deal - and that's why Franco did not do that.



From Suez to the oilfields there are still a few hundred kilometers of desert with no rail lines.



Huh, that's exactly the OTL situation. If British convoys went through the Med, it was chiefly to resupply Malta. Most stuff did go around the cape.

Franco knew that the UK would take the Canary islands and had factored that it. From what I've read he didn't join because Hitler refused to forgive $200 million in war debt.

The Axis would have built rail lines, moved oil by truck or some way figured out a way to move the oil.

The UK supplied Egypt and Malta through the Med, so both would have been lost. There would have been no Operation Torch, no invasion of Sicily or Italy. That might have made the UK consider a peace deal.
 
Franco knew that the UK would take the Canary islands and had factored that it. From what I've read he didn't join because Hitler refused to forgive $200 million in war debt.

Sometimes you place demands you know can't or won't be accepted because you don't want the deal, actually.

The Axis would have built rail lines, moved oil by truck or some way figured out a way to move the oil.

Sure, over time. Say a year. Naturally, you do remember what happened to the Kuwaiti oil wells when Saddam had to abandon them. Say another 18 months to re-drill the oilfields.

The UK supplied Egypt and Malta through the Med, so both would have been lost.

Just no. Egypt was supplied from around Africa. After the Tiger convoy, I think no more than a dozen of cargo ships went all the way from Gibraltar to Alexandria while there were Axis troops in North Africa, and that was because the Brits had a convoy stopping in Malta anyway.
 
Sometimes you place demands you know can't or won't be accepted because you don't want the deal, actually.



Sure, over time. Say a year. Naturally, you do remember what happened to the Kuwaiti oil wells when Saddam had to abandon them. Say another 18 months to re-drill the oilfields.

exactly.



Just no. Egypt was supplied from around Africa. After the Tiger convoy, I think no more than a dozen of cargo ships went all the way from Gibraltar to Alexandria while there were Axis troops in North Africa, and that was because the Brits had a convoy stopping in Malta anyway.

1) So maybe that is the POD, Franco wanted to get back at the Allies for the international brigades?
2)Exactly
3) If Graziani had used the mobile warfare doctrine he came up with and taken the Suez, there is no way for the UK to supply Egypt "from around Africa".
 
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1) So maybe that is the POD, Franco wanted to get back at the Allies for the international brigades?
2)Exactly
3) If Graziani had used the mobile warfare doctrine he came up with and taken the Suez, there is no way for the UK to supply Egypt "from around Africa".

1: Well, he'd fail getting revenge for that since he'd be overthrown by a starving populace before the war was over.
2: How are the Axis forces even going to get there with their logistical deficiencies in the region?
3: And how is he going to take and hold it when Axis logistics were already stretched to breaking point by being in Egypt?
 
1: Well, he'd fail getting revenge for that since he'd be overthrown by a starving populace before the war was over.
2: How are the Axis forces even going to get there with their logistical deficiencies in the region?
3: And how is he going to take and hold it when Axis logistics were already stretched to breaking point by being in Egypt?

1) Once the UK sued for peace, the point would be moot.
2) with the Med closed off to the Allies, by sea.
3) If Graziani would have used the mobile warfare doctrine that he came up with and didn't use, the supply problem would have been much less. After he reached the Suez, by sea.
 
1) So maybe that is the POD, Franco wanted to get back at the Allies for the international brigades?

Maybe not.

2)Exactly

Not a great idea considering what's happening in the SU.

3) If Graziani had used the mobile warfare doctrine he came up with and taken the Suez, there is no way for the UK to supply Egypt "from around Africa".

First, Graziani totally lacked the wherewithal to apply such a doctrine, even assuming he had the wits.
Second, keep track of what you are claiming. You wrote that "Egypt was supplied through the Med" - it was not. Facts are facts.
Third, yes, if Suez and Alexandria and Cairo fall to the Axis, Egypt cannot be supplied, not even through the Cape route - obviously, because it's no longer in British hands. But in the previous message you claimed that the British supply lines going the Cape route would be a factor against Britain after the entire Middle East has fallen to the Axis, and that's wrong, since supplies to India or Singapore or Australia, and from there, did go around the Cape in OTL and Britain did not seek terms. In this scenario, the British LOCs would still go around the Cape to reach Port Sudan and Basra, and this thing would be not one whit different from OTL.
 

nbcman

Donor
1) So maybe that is the POD, Franco wanted to get back at the Allies for the international brigades?
2)Exactly
3) If Graziani had used the mobile warfare doctrine he came up with and taken the Suez, there is no way for the UK to supply Egypt "from around Africa".
1) So Franco would doom his governance in Spain because of the International Brigades? Franco wasn't stupid enough to do that OTL.
2) So the German / Italians have to march about 1000 kms from the Suez Canal to Mosul through pretty forbidding terrain, redrill the destroyed wells, and rebuild the destroyed pipelines to get oil out of Iraq - but then the oil is at a Med port which requires Italian / German tankers to carry the oil back. By that time that's all completed (2+ years - 1943/1944), USAAF and RAF strat bombers are blowing the crap out of German industry and the Soviets have stopped the German invasion.
3) Graziani was in command in Libya and completely screwed up the invasion of Egypt. If he trimmed down the invading forces to semi-mobile units, that invasion was only a few divisions which the available Commonwealth units in Egypt could have stopped cold. Also, if you strip down your transport to push those 3-4 division equivalents forward into Egypt, how do you keep them in supply? Don't say the RM will keep those forces in supply as the RM didn't have the heavy ships available in mid 1940 to try to run convoys to the Eastern Med in the face of the RN Med Fleet. The RM only had 2 old BBs available in June 1940 with one more old BB added in July 1940. The RM new BBs were completed in early August 1940 but they still had to go through sea trials. ABC with 4 BBs and 2 CVLs would have been more than happy to engage the RM in the Eastern Med if they tried.
 
Maybe not.



Not a great idea considering what's happening in the SU.



First, Graziani totally lacked the wherewithal to apply such a doctrine, even assuming he had the wits.
Second, keep track of what you are claiming. You wrote that "Egypt was supplied through the Med" - it was not. Facts are facts.
Third, yes, if Suez and Alexandria and Cairo fall to the Axis, Egypt cannot be supplied, not even through the Cape route - obviously, because it's no longer in British hands. But in the previous message you claimed that the British supply lines going the Cape route would be a factor against Britain after the entire Middle East has fallen to the Axis, and that's wrong, since supplies to India or Singapore or Australia, and from there, did go around the Cape in OTL and Britain did not seek terms. In this scenario, the British LOCs would still go around the Cape to reach Port Sudan and Basra, and this thing would be not one whit different from OTL.

Maybe not...The whole point is...what if.
Not a great idea...I was agreeing with you, now you are saying your point wasn't a great idea?
Graziani came up with the doctrine, so I would think that he had the wit. As for not being able to apply it...what if he could?
Egypt was supplied through the Med ports and the Suez was a vital supply line for the UK. Are port Said and Alexandria in the Med?
Sending All men, resources, food, etc (supplies) around the Cape would be a major obstacle. Considering that most of Europe was under Nazi control, that might...just might have made them consider an agreement. That is what this whole thread was about.
 
1) Once the UK sued for peace, the point would be moot.
2) with the Med closed off to the Allies, by sea.
3) If Graziani would have used the mobile warfare doctrine that he came up with and didn't use, the supply problem would have been much less. After he reached the Suez, by sea.

1: And how long will that take? Britain isn't going to surrender before Franco's out on his arse and he knows it. It isn't worth it for him.
2: With what ports? The Allies are going to tear anything they threaten to lose to pieces. The Axis won't have the supplies they need.
3: He didn't have the capabilities, nor logistics for that. Going by OTL performance, how is he go accomplish any of this?
 
Maybe not...The whole point is...what if.
Not a great idea...I was agreeing with you, now you are saying your point wasn't a great idea?
Graziani came up with the doctrine, so I would think that he had the wit. As for not being able to apply it...what if he could?
Egypt was supplied through the Med ports and the Suez was a vital supply line for the UK. Are port Said and Alexandria in the Med?
Sending All men, resources, food, etc (supplies) around the Cape would be a major obstacle. Considering that most of Europe was under Nazi control, that might...just might have made them consider an agreement. That is what this whole thread was about.
As has already been pointed out British LOC was already via the cape OTL*. It was only a relatively handful of very important convoys that went to Egypt via the Med once Italy had joined the war. The mass majority went around the cape. *A great deal of the supplies the Commonwealth forces needed was sourced relatively locally from the Middle East or elsewhere in the World in order to reduce the logistical burden. Not everything came from the UK/USA.
 
The real world isn’t a game of hearts of iron.

You can’t just pick “mobile warfare” doctrine and suddenly your armies are awesome until about 1943 when the other doctrines catch up...
 
The real world isn’t a game of hearts of iron.

You can’t just pick “mobile warfare” doctrine and suddenly your armies are awesome until about 1943 when the other doctrines catch up...

And you can't just move a few industry sliders for Germany to crank out the materials and equipment to create a brand new railroad in the Middle East.
 
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