United Kingdom general election of 1915

Let's say that there is no World War One (or, for those who think that WW1 was inevitable, that it is postponed), and that the british general election of 1915, which IOTL was not held due to the war and was postponed to 1918, is held on schedule. What have been the results of the election? Would the liberal goverment have stayed in office or would the conservatives have won the election resulting in an earlier Bonar Law's goverment? If it is the latter, what would have been Bonar Law's cabinet?

I supose that the main issue in the election would have been the situation in Ireland and the Home Rule Crisis, and that the results of the election will depen on how the Home Rule Crisis develops. I also suppose that to that point would have degenerated into a civil war in Ireland, or at least into some form of armed conflict between the Ulster Volunteers and the Irish Volunteers, but I may be wrong.
 
I suspect that if the 1915 election was held Asquith would have been returned with a majority. How big would depend on the situation in Ireland. Despite the statements made at the time by some of the Army I think that Home Rule would have been enacted and there would have been some strife but not as much as was predicted or feared.
 
"It is the view of many historians that only the outbreak of World War I prevented civil war in Ulster." Alfred F. Havighurst, *Britain in Transition: The Twentieth Century* (Chicago: University of Chicago Press 1985), p.111. http://books.google.com/books?id=0Nhq1g1WYmEC&pg=PA111

A key question of course is where the military will stand in a confrontation between the Government and the Unionists. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curragh_Incident

Until we have considered the likelihood of civil war in Ulster (and maybe not even limited to it...) we might as well (in a world where Lincoln lost in 1860) ask whether if Lincoln had won, what his tariff and internal improvement and patronage policies would be, and whether the Democrats could unite to defeat him in 1864, while ignoring the question of whether Yankees and Southrons will be slaughtering each other...
 
Bonar Law seems to have believed he could call the Liberal bluff over Home Rule and I think he was right. Asquith would have backed down and Redmond would have been forced by his own supporters to withdraw support from the Liberals.

The Conservatives won have won the election and Ireland would be sliding down the path to civil war, probably a good deal bloodier than that of OTL.
 
What would have happened with the Home Rule? The Home Rule Act had alredy become law. Would the conservatives have repeal the complete Home Rule Act or would they have only amended it to exclude the counties of Ulster? And how would a consevative goverment have dealt with the civil war in Ireland, if there is a war? And Asquith's goverment, before the election?
 
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