United Kingdom allies with Confederates

The CSA would have to pull off a big victory, like wining Gettysburg or something

Antietam is a better bet.

The Battle of Antietam itself isn't a better bet; the best the Confederates could hope for is a stalemate (which they got). But yeah, the campaign itself is a better chance than Gettysburg. It might bring British and French recognition, though I doubt armed intervention (unless the North overreacts to recognition, but then the North would be the aggressor). It would also have a highly negative effect on the Republicans in the mid-terms, and could easily give the Democrats control of the US House. Even if there is still a pro-war majority, it could hinder Lincoln's ability to run the war the way he wants.
 
Supporting the Monroe Doctrine was seen as part of British Foreign Policy, in reality it was the British was policed this not the Americans (at least during the 19th centrury).

I would agree that Britain would not seriously consider war with the US and even if the Trent Affair went even more pair shaped would not start a shooting war.

The point about Britain interfering with the Chinese civil war (Taiping Rebellion) is well made however the Brit's sided with the existant government AGAINST the rebels, a mirror of this policy would have seen them support the US not take up arms against them.
Exactly. I said that the FRENCH would want to weaken the Americans, not the British.
 

frlmerrin

Banned
I've been pondering this in my head and always wondered why the United Kingdom never took advantage of the American Civil War. I remember reading somewhere that the British even voiced some support for the Confederacy at first, but not much else.

So, what if the Confederates and the British formed an alliance with each other to take on the Union during the American Civil War?

The short precise answer to your question is: if the Confederate Government and the British Government formed an alliance to take on the Union during the American Civil War then the Union would lose the war and the Confederacy would gain its independence.

However, the circumstances in which the British Government would need to or decide to ally with the Confederate Government are very limited.

There are no situations in which the British Government would ally with the Confederate Government simply to take advantage of the American Civil War (ACW). The ante-bellum USA (both the Union and what becamethe Confederacy) was a major British trading partner and target for investment. British Merchants were the source of at least 60% of the USA’s imports; British merchants also purchased much of the USA’s exports, vast quantities of cotton, sugar, tobacco and grains. British companies had large investment portfolios spreading across the whole country. A significant part of the USA’s trade was carried on British merchant ships. During the ACW British merchants made even greater profits by providing materiel of war to both sides. There was simply no reason to turn a profitable situation, trading with both belligerents to a war which would involve extensive costs for the British Government and a loss of sales opportunities to the British Merchants just to ‘take advantage’ of the ACW.

There are two sets of circumstances where the British might have ended up at war with the Union during the ACW. These are:

1) The improper imposition of the naval blockade of the Confederacy by the Union Navy. A war between Britain and the Union over an issue involving the blockade was very likely. In fact it is a tribute to the British Station Admiral of the North American and West Indies station that it did not happen. Especially given the strong Confederate sympathies of a number of his Captains. In the event of such a war there is a good chance that if a British victory was not immediately forthcoming (within six months say) that the British Government would ally with the Confederate Government against the Union.

There are several naval incidents that could have resulted in a British-Union war. They are listed below.

a) Union ships illegally searching and taking British blockade runners in Mexican waters on the Rio Grande.
b) Activities of USS Tuscarora’s captain during the Nashville affair and crew behaviour in Southampton.
c) Activities of USS Tuscarora’s captain in Gibraltar and the expulsion of the ship from the colony.
d) The Trent Affair in which the Confederate Commissioners to London and Paris were taken from a British mail ship in international waters by an armed party from the USS San Jacinto. It is interesting to note that most of the Union Cabinet including Lincoln had no idea how angry the British Government and public were about the issue, they wanted to put the issue to international arbitration. The Cabinet completely failed to understand that the British Government started preparations for war almost as soon as it heard the news of the detention of Slidell and Mason, the Confederate Commissioners. It began sending thousands of troops to British North America and got them there in just four weeks, reinforcing the Royal Navy’s North America and West Indies station into a large battle fleet capable of destroying the USN, reinforcing the Pacific station and giving all theatre commanders provisional war orders. It was only Seward’s and a few other cabinet colleagues insistence that the British were serious about war that eventually convinced Lincoln and the rest of the cabinet to yield to the British demands to return the Confederate commissioners to them.
e) Attempted stopping of HMS Terror an ironclad floating battery by a Union cruzier mistaking it for a merchant ship.
f) The activities of several Royal Navy captains on blockade watch some of which involved assisting British ships to break the blockade.
g) The activities of several Union Navy cruzier captains who violated British neutrality, in particular attempting to stop ships in British territorial waters and also improperly hunting Confederate raiders outside of international law.
h) Wilkes the Captain of the USS San Jacinto was heard to make threats against British mail ships in a pub several months after the Trent Affair. The British Station Admiral immediately sent orders to all of his Captains that such an event must be resisted with all means at their disposal. This order was subsequently rescinded by the British Admiralty several weeks later and discussion between British and Union diplomats resulted in Wilkes being reined in by the Union Navy department.

2) Attempts by Britain to mediate a peace between the Union and the Confederacy. There is some chance of a war between Britain and the Union over this issue. Early in the war there were occasions when the British government considered offering its services to mediate a peace between the ACW belligerents as it was greatly alarmed by the high loss of life in some battles, as indeed was much of the newspaper reading British Public. If the tide of victories had been just slightly more in the Confederacy’s favour early in the war it would probably have done so. Through its Minister in London the Union threatened war with Britain in the event of such an offer being made. It is hard to imagine this threat being taken seriously by the British Government and it was certainly hyperbole on the part of the USA but in the event of the British Government deciding on mediating it is not hard to see how war might come about Between the Union and the British. Once again after a British-Union war starts, if it does not end quickly the British will end up allying with the Confederacy through necessity.
 
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Best way to get the British into the American Civil War..

Best way to get the British into the American Civil War..

Is have the French support the CSA

Can we widen this out?

French go all-in to protect their Mexican adventure and declare full support for the CSA.
And it has measurable effect.

At what point would the British intervene to support the North? Could this kick off another European war?

...apologies if this has been covered before...
 

frlmerrin

Banned
Best way to get the British into the American Civil War..

Is have the French support the CSA

Can we widen this out?

French go all-in to protect their Mexican adventure and declare full support for the CSA.
And it has measurable effect.

At what point would the British intervene to support the North? Could this kick off another European war?

...apologies if this has been covered before...


The effect of the French 'declaring full support for the CSA' by which I presume you mean recognition of Confederate independence and material support of its armed forces would be to make the rest of the European nations including Great Britain give serious consideration to recognition of the CSA. Indeed if the French recognise them then the Belgians and Austro-Hungary would also recognise the CSA as they are all tied together by Royalty in to the Mexican adventure. Having said that in OTL the French Government made it very plain to the British Government via diplomatic channels that they wanted to recognise the CSA but were unwilling to do so unless the British did so too. Despite a strong desire within the British Government to end the suffering of the ACW they decided not to recognise the CSA or even offer to mediate between the beligerent parties.

With French recognition you get the interesting situation of the French Navy protecting French ships entering or leaving Confederate ports from the Union Navy. Perhaps even being ordered to lift the blocade by Force Majeure, something they were quite capable of doing but given the naval commitments to Mexico, Indo-China, The Magreb and home defence it would stretch them somewhat. However the Union Navy was far too weak and would not be able to offer a credible defence against such a move.

The British were less than thrilled by the French adventure in Mexico and its interests in Indo-China but they were unwilling to go to war about it. All they did was to refuse the French Government permission to use British merchant vessels as troop ships to transfer the army from France to Mexico. Instead they had to use disarmed battleships to carry the troops. This was ultimately one of the key factors in the withdraw of France from Mexico.
 
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