United Iberia

What if Portugal remained part of Spain? Let's say Jaoa IV's coup failed or Spain won the Restoration War? What if?

PS: Are there any TLs on this?
 
What if Portugal remained part of Spain? Let's say Jaoa IV's coup failed or Spain won the Restoration War? What if?

PS: Are there any TLs on this?
Not too familiar with the intricacies of the period. A question is: who would favor the Porguese nobility in the succession war? The Austrian Hapbsburgs or the French?
 
Very unlikely. For one, by the time the Portuguese Restoration war started, Spain's resources were pretty stretch, with armies in the Low Countries, Germany, Catalonia and Italy. It would be incredibly difficult for the Spanish to win the initial stages of the War or for Spain to stop the Coup. Plus, it was in many nations interests to support Portugal's bid for independence, as it would weaken Spain. Not to mention Portugal gained no real benefits from the Union, and in fact lost large amounts of their colonial holdings to the Netherlands. Your best bet would be to change the policies of Philip IV and the Count-Duke of Olivares towards Portugal. They tried to transform Portugal from an independent nation into another province of Castile. It angered the Portuguese and eventually triggered the restoration and subsequent war. So stop the policy and your good. However, sooner or later the Portuguese were bound to rebel against the Spanish. All your doing is putting it off.
 
So, Olivares isn't harsh towards the Portuguese. How does this affect the War of Spanish Succession?

Also, if you see a better way to keep Iberia United, please tell me.
 
So, Olivares isn't harsh towards the Portuguese. How does this affect the War of Spanish Succession?

Also, if you see a better way to keep Iberia United, please tell me.

OK HUGE amount of time between the Portuguese succession war and the War of Spanish succession. With such a POD, the Spanish Habsburgs might not go extinct, so no succession war. But , if the war happens similar to OTL, then there are a couple ways it could go down. One, Portugal could break away once the past Habsburg King dies, and reestablish its independence, similar to what Scotland threatened to do in Queen Anne's reign. Two, in the twilight years of the Habsburg dynasty, a union could be enacted between Spain and Portugal, like the one between England and Scotland. Spain would give a bit, no doubt over Portuguese law and things like that, but would create a Kingdom of Iberia.

However, in my opinion, the Iberian Union was pretty doomed from nearly the start. Under the Union, Portugal lost large amounts of Colonial possessions, went to war with England, its traditional ally, and entered into a useless war with the Netherlands. So unless Spain can make the Union profitable for Portugal, sooner or later the Portuguese are gonna go, Hey whats the point of having a foreign King if we keep losing our sh*t? Plus, it was a union at the edge of a sword, not the best beginning for something like this.

Your best bet would be something like Drake's Prince of Peace. It would be a peaceful union, with Portugal technically "winning" as it was their Prince who inherited Castile and Aragon, rather then the other way around.
 
Well, Olivares was doing the same thing on Aragon, which triggered the temporary secession of Catalonia and its temporary union with France, and also a small rebellion in Aragon.
A less harsh (i'd prefer more realistic) Olivares would largely be more in tune with the policies of Lerma... but he despised Lerma and blamed him for the decline of the Spanish power.

If we want to keep Spain united, we need to find another way for Olivares to channel his reformer spirit. Or give him a counter-balance that could moderate his policies.
Checking the wiki page on him, i see a couple of potential PoDs: on one side, his uncle de Zúñiga as foreign advisor was important on his decision to restart the war against the Dutch. This was probably an unnecesary war that deprived of resources for the wars later on.
Also in 1628 the treasure fleet was captured (by the Dutch) though an insolvency crisis, which caused him to press Portugal for higher taxes, which in turn provoked the first attempts of rebellion.

OK HUGE amount of time between the Portuguese succession war and the War of Spanish succession. With such a POD, the Spanish Habsburgs might not go extinct, so no succession war.
By the time Spain stops trying to retake Portugal, Carlos II is already king (even if underage). Even by the time Spain stops having real options to get it back, it was a sure deal that he was going to be king. And as long as Carlos II will be king, there will be a successional crisis: what could possibly prevent the rising star of France to project its influence over Spain, specially a Spain ruled by a weak of character and sickly king? With a PoD near Carlos II crowning, i think a Succession War is very likely.


However, in my opinion, the Iberian Union was pretty doomed from nearly the start. Under the Union, Portugal lost large amounts of Colonial possessions, went to war with England, its traditional ally, and entered into a useless war with the Netherlands. So unless Spain can make the Union profitable for Portugal, sooner or later the Portuguese are gonna go, Hey whats the point of having a foreign King if we keep losing our sh*t? Plus, it was a union at the edge of a sword, not the best beginning for something like this.
Portugal was not in a very different position than Aragon was, regarding to Castille. And while there was rebellions in Aragon, also supported by the foreign powers, they ultimately failed, so, there's no reason a priori to think that the Portuguese rebellion was bound to succeed.
Also, the union of Castille and Portugal was hardly "at the edge of a sword". Most of the Porguese nobility had supported Phillip II's claim.
 
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Jotabe1789, you summed up my points perfectly:). I think the Portuguese would support Archduke Charles as a counter to Castilian Philip V. Maybe the Hapsburgs remained in Spain, maybe not.
 
Portugal was not in a very different position than Aragon was, regarding to Castille. And while there was rebellions in Aragon, also supported by the foreign powers, they ultimately failed, so, there's no reason a priori to think that the Portuguese rebellion was bound to succeed.
Also, the union of Castille and Portugal was hardly "at the edge of a sword". Most of the Porguese nobility had supported Phillip II's claim.

Portugal being part of the spanish crown during the Succession War and supporting the Austracistas is a very interesting scenario. It would totally change the correlation of forces during the war. However, it's important to remember that the traditional, symplistic view of the War of Succession as matter of Aragon (with the Archduke) vs Castille (with Philip) doesn't represent necesarilly the coplexities of the situation. Certainly catalan nobility supported Charles, but that's not so clear about he catalan bourgeoisie (even Casanovas' position is very ambigous), not to mention that many Charles' supporters in Castile, who existed, after the war suffered a mix of damanatio memoriae and "let's hidden our past", that is what happens when you lose a civil war in central Spain and the frontier is too far to fly.
 
not to mention that many Charles' supporters in Castile, who existed, after the war suffered a mix of damanatio memoriae and "let's hidden our past", that is what happens when you lose a civil war in central Spain and the frontier is too far to fly.
Yes. This is one of my biggest problems researching the Castillian Civil War: when i was in school and highschool, we studied that the Juanista side was mostly the Galician and Andalusian nobility, while the rest of the nobility were on the Aragonese party. Boy, was that wrong... Literally, supporters of both sides were all over the place.
 
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