Interesting stuff on the Caliphate, but I doubt the Hashemites would form it, they were far more interested in British con-mons and loose confederation, partly why they fell in Iraq and almost so in Jordan.
I see the UAR as capable of lasting a lot longing (ie a few decades) if Syrian interests are adressed, ironically it was Damascus who jumped at the chance to be led by the great Nasser, despite his own wishes for Federation, which led to Egyptian domination and nationalist anger. This and Israel naturally.
Does anyone see the Six-Day-War, in OTL's incarnation as being avoidable? Such a defeat would probably lead to the UAR being greatly weakened.
Anywho, here's the makings of a bare-bones ATL, starting from before the POD, for a bit of background detail. All comment and critique welcome:
July 23rd 1952: The Free Officers Movement, a group of young army officers led by General Muhammad Naguib and Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrows King Farouk of Egypt. They are displeased with the handling of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, high levels of corruption within Egyptian society, and continued British influence over the country.
July 28th 1952: After much discussion between the former government and Free Officers, it is decided to send Farouk into exile in Italy, while his son will rule as Farouk II. General Naguib becomes Prime Minister of the new government and C-in-C of the Army, while Nasser becomes Interior Minister.
September 11th 1952: After weeks of riots calling for action from Naguib’s government, the Prime Minister implements major land reforms. The move removes the wealthiest landowners who dominate agriculture from power. Not only does the reforms show the Free Officers’ socialist leanings but hurts a major group of monarchist support.
January 1st 1953: Under pressure from Nasser and others, a reluctant Naguib bans all political parties. The Free Officers, now renamed the Revolutionary Command Council, declares it will take over for a ‘transitional’ three-year period before returning Egypt to civilian rule.
July 18th 1953: Less than a year after the coup, the RCC abolishes the monarchy. Naguib is now President and Prime Minister of the Republic of Egypt, however he is losing control of the Council to Colonel Nasser.
February 25th 1954: Increasingly isolated from the younger radicals within the Council, Naguib is forced to resign. Nasser becomes Prime Minister. However Naguib is by far the most popular member of the RCC and protests in Cairo calls for his reinstatement. The Council gives in the next day and Naguib becomes President once more, while Nasser retains the role of Prime Minister and RCC Chairman.
November 14th 1954: Having only a ceremonial role as President, Naguib loses his final power base following an internal struggle with Nasser over the military. Unwilling to maintain the charade, Naguib finally steps down voluntarily, sighting health problems. Nasser takes over as President, now having total control over Egypt.
January 19th 1955: A new constitution is announced. The President is granted massive powers over the National Assembly. Although free elections and a free press are protected, political parties are still banned, with the exception of the Council’s mass organisation, the National Union, while as part of growing nationalisation, the state controls a 51% share in all newspapers. Women are granted the vote and Egypt is declared a secular Republic. This leads to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Arab world’s major Islamist group, being forced underground.
September 15th 1955: Following continued tensions with Britain over Sudan and the Suez Canal Zone, President Nasser signs an arms deal with the Soviet Bloc, paid for with massive cotton exports from Egypt’s booming agricultural sector. Despite holding a loathing for Communism in general, Nasser sees Moscow as a more palatable ally compared to the ‘imperialist’ west. At the same time, Britain forms the Baghdad Pact around the Hashemite Kingdoms of Jordan and Iraq, as well as Persia and Turkey in an effort to retain influence over the Middle East. Nasser sees this as a threat to his own Pan-Arab views, further pushing Egypt out of the Western camp.
March 22nd 1956: Pan-Arab groups, backed by Cairo, begin a series of major protests in Amman, the Jordanian capital, against British influence in the region. By the end of the month King Hussein, fearful of a revolution, removes all British advisors from the county, effectively removing Jordan from the Baghdad Pact. By now Westminster views President Nasser as the primary threat to stability in the region.
May 19th 1956: Nasser recognises the People’s Republic of China. The United States, previously willing to except the Egyptian President’s radical actions, joins Britain in opposing the Cairo regime. American funding is pulled out of the Aswan Dam project on July 19th. Needing money in order to continue the Dam project, and seeing relations with the West as a lost cause, Nasser decides on drastic action.
July 26th 1956: Egyptian forces cross into the Suez Canal Zone without resistance. President Nasser nationalises the Canal. Britain requests support from Washington but with an election nearby, President Eisenhower refuses act on the controversial issue. Meanwhile France, equally hurt by the loss (both nations held major shares in the Canal) suggests unilateral military action, with Israeli support. Anthony Eden, the British Prime Minister is under pressure from backbenchers within the Conservative Party to act, sighting the affair as reminiscent of Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland.
October 22nd 1956: The Protocol of Sevres- British, French and Israeli politicians secretly meet to organise an attack on Egypt. Israel hoped to end Cairo’s blockade of the Red Sea and as such was willing to aid an Anglo-French mission to Suez via an invasion of the Sinai Peninsula. Westminster and Paris, once Israeli forces reached the Canal, would intervene supposedly to halt hostilities, by occupying the Canal as a buffer zone. From there they hoped that America and the UN would support the internationalisation of the Canal, in light of Egypt tenuous hold over the region.
October 29th 1956: Operation Kadesh, the Israeli invasion of Sinai begins.
November 5th 1956: Following an aerial bombardment, British and French paratroopers land at Port Said, the Mediterranean entrance to the Canal, beginning Operation Musketeer.
November 6th 1956: The British and French find little support for their actions. Eisenhower presently decrying the suppression of Hungarian rebels by the Soviets is unable to ethically back his European allies. Meanwhile the Commonwealth, expected to back the mother country to the hilt is outraged, with Prime Minister St. Laurent of Canada leading calls for UN intervention. Moscow goes even further with Premier Khrushchev making veiled threats of atomic attacks on London, Paris and Tel Aviv. Finally after threatening to destabilise the British economy by selling off the US’s reserves of pound sterling, Eden gives in to Eisenhower and declares a cease-fire without French knowledge, regardless they soon follows suit.
December 22nd 1956: The Anglo-French Task Force is replaced by the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF) the first such UN peacekeeping force deployed. Eden resigns as Prime Minister in January, while President Nasser is hailed as a hero of the Arab world, having ‘won’ a great victory against the former colonial powers.
October 10th 1957: Fearful of Communist and Islamist forces, the pan-Arab Ba’ath Party government in Syria, buoyed by Nasser’s popular appeal, begin talks with Cairo over a political union. Damascus proposes a unitary state dominated by the larger Egyptian Republic. Nasser is less enthusiastic however, due to geography and Syria’s minority but powerful nationalist groups. He insists on a federal model for the time being, to which the Syrians begrudingly agree[POD].
February 1st 1958: The United Arab Republic is formed. Nasser takes the position of Federal President, while retaining his Egyptian Presidency. Meanwhile in Syria, Michel Aflaq, formerly Education Minister and the major architect of the union is made Vice-President of the UAR and President of Syria through Egyptian pressure, backed by massive support in Ba’ath rank and file. The constitution is modelled heavily on Egypt’s, however Syria retains some of its democratic institutions at a regional level. Communist and Islamist groups are banned throughout the UAR.
July 17th 1958: The National Union and Ba’ath Party dissolve to form the Arab Socialist Union.
December 4th 1962: Under mounting pressure from Pan-Arabs, President Qasim of Iraq opens talks with the UAR regarding unification. Nasser travels to Baghdad, causing massive pro-union demonstrations. Although Cairo has been responsible for encouraging Shiite unrest and even an assassination attempt, Qasim sees no other option.
March 10th 1963: Qasim announces the UAR will gain a third member. In return for joining, Qasim retains his presidency and is granted a position in the Arab Socialist Union’s upper echelons, along with autonomy for the Kurds, his primary allies. However Ba’athists, such as General al-Bakr are given key roles in his Cabinet and effectively control Iraq.