United Arab Republic: Nasser's Dream

Yup. Black September is the only thing, really.

If Black September works out like OTL, then I could see Jordan and Lebanon joining in the 2020s. Basically the map is what the union would look like during the Cold War.



The Jordanian people is different from the Jordanian elite. Which is why I think Jordan and Lebanon would only join in/after the 2020s (or after democratization).
I'm assuming that the UAR eventually reforms to be around as democratic as Iran before 2009 here, though.

We're really killing the butterflies on this one... the formation of an enormous Arab nation spanning the strategically vital Middle East is going to change everything least of all Jordan's views on them, and not just of the government or the people. You don't have people grow up in regimes as diametrically opposed as those of Egypt and Jordan for example and not have there be some levels of opposition between the two of them, the average American and the average Soviet certainly didn't know anything other than opposition to each other's nations. Who's to say there won't be a war or that someone will use the UAR's strength vis-a-vis Jordan to demand some choice bits of Jordanian land?

Assuming the kind of secularization by force as advocated by Nasserists and Ba'athists alike would go over well in Jordan is a bit of a jump to take as well.
 
What could be interesting is if Faisal II of Iraq isn't deposed and executed by the revolution there, we have a monarchic Arab Union and a Republican Arab Union existing at the same time. It might be a lot easier to get the Gulf states in the former while the latter might hold together better with a major regional rival and expand a fair bit.
 
ITTL how does the UAR do in the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War?
Does this timeline change the Arab Israeli conflict?

This timeline would radically alter the entire course of Middle Eastern politics and world history at that, it will definitely alter the conflict to have an enemy nation on either side of Israel, if Iraq joins the union the hole is getting even deeper for the Israelis.
 
What could be interesting is if Faisal II of Iraq isn't deposed and executed by the revolution there, we have a monarchic Arab Union and a Republican Arab Union existing at the same time. It might be a lot easier to get the Gulf states in the former while the latter might hold together better with a major regional rival and expand a fair bit.

The US took a very pro-monarchist stance during the whole period of Nasserist Arab Nationalism in the Middle East, though there would still be major discomfort among policy-makers of a seriously tangible union of Gulf states... something like the modern GCC with some alliance elements would be the most the USA would find comfortable I would imagine.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
We're really killing the butterflies on this one... the formation of an enormous Arab nation spanning the strategically vital Middle East is going to change everything least of all Jordan's views on them, and not just of the government or the people. You don't have people grow up in regimes as diametrically opposed as those of Egypt and Jordan for example and not have there be some levels of opposition between the two of them, the average American and the average Soviet certainly didn't know anything other than opposition to each other's nations. Who's to say there won't be a war or that someone will use the UAR's strength vis-a-vis Jordan to demand some choice bits of Jordanian land?

Assuming the kind of secularization by force as advocated by Nasserists and Ba'athists alike would go over well in Jordan is a bit of a jump to take as well.
And as I stated earlier a UAR invasion of Jordan or possibly a Gulf Monarchy would force the US to intervene, in order to contain a nominal Soviet ally from gowing too strong on the behalf of the strategical partners of the US.
 
And as I stated earlier a UAR invasion of Jordan or possibly a Gulf Monarchy would force the US to intervene, in order to contain a nominal Soviet ally from gowing too strong on the behalf of the strategical partners of the US.

Precisely, the US held no great love for Jordan during the Cold War, but keeping it out of the hands of someone the US definitely thinks is not in its interest to allow to expand will push the US to the breaking point.
 
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