HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
Yup. Black September is the only thing, really.
If Black September works out like OTL, then I could see Jordan and Lebanon joining in the 2020s. Basically the map is what the union would look like during the Cold War.
The Jordanian people is different from the Jordanian elite. Which is why I think Jordan and Lebanon would only join in/after the 2020s (or after democratization).
I'm assuming that the UAR eventually reforms to be around as democratic as Iran before 2009 here, though.
We're really killing the butterflies on this one... the formation of an enormous Arab nation spanning the strategically vital Middle East is going to change everything least of all Jordan's views on them, and not just of the government or the people. You don't have people grow up in regimes as diametrically opposed as those of Egypt and Jordan for example and not have there be some levels of opposition between the two of them, the average American and the average Soviet certainly didn't know anything other than opposition to each other's nations. Who's to say there won't be a war or that someone will use the UAR's strength vis-a-vis Jordan to demand some choice bits of Jordanian land?
Assuming the kind of secularization by force as advocated by Nasserists and Ba'athists alike would go over well in Jordan is a bit of a jump to take as well.