United Arab nation and its demographics

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by HistoricalArthropod, Feb 22, 2019.

  1. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    So, what is the latest possible pod for a united Arab nation? At minimum, this nation has to include Arabia, the Levant, Mesopotamia, Egypt and Sudan. Other territories are allowed, but these are manditory.

    And assuming this nation formed and stayed stable, here are some questions...

    How populated would it be?
    How powerful would it be?
    How would minorities fare?
    Could it become an industrial power with european levels of living standards and literacy?
    Could it have a lot of scientific output much like Germany does otl?
     
  2. Byzantine fanatic Pasha of the Rumistan beylik

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    No Mongol invasion and sack of Baghdad? Without that, the Arab world fares better I suspect.
     
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  3. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    Do you think it would be able to get extensive railroads connecting all its major cities and ports?
     
  4. wtw Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I do, its avoiding the European and Ottoman conquest that I would also worry about
     
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  5. Noscoper Well-Known Member

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    You could have a successful Muhammad Ali state as the basis for a United Arab nation
     
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  6. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    Would he have been able to get all of Arabia and Mesopotamia? And could there be a way for a European country to actively support him?
     
  7. Noscoper Well-Known Member

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    Sure Arabia can be acquired during the 1850s and 1860s while Mesopotamia can be taken during a Major ottoman war.
    Not sure maybe have Russia decide to back him over the ottomans
     
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  8. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    Now, a major obstacle to overcome would be having the Arab army be trained and equipped enough to fight off Europeans like the British.
     
  9. Noscoper Well-Known Member

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    He can't win against the Europeans, The best way would to avoid an outcome of the Oriental crisis which leads to him losing the Levant or avoid the oriental crisis in it's entirety
     
  10. Nivek Resident Videogame Expert

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    More sucessful ottomans?
     
  11. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    I mean, what if he has another European power backing him?

    And would it be possible for him to extend pass the Levant?
     
  12. BellaGerant Well-Known Member

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    The French tried to back him but they had to fall back after the British, Prussians, Austrians, and Russians all backed the Ottomans.

    No one at this point is too keen on seeing the Ottoman Empire collapse, so the European Great Powers aren't going to suffer such uppitiness from the Egyptians. The Levant is staying Turkish so long as the Great Powers favour the integrity of the Ottoman Empire (a sudden collapse would result in the whole of the Balkans being consumed by war while the Austrians and Russians would be trying to beat each other out, which the British are loathe to witness and the Austrians and Russians were hesitant on even at this point, seeing how they sided with the Ottomans in the Oriental Crisis historically) over the territorial ambitions of a local governor (a rather bad precedent to set, overall).
     
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  13. Queen Edward II³-(IV+II²) Trigger-Happy Beerbarian

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    Had the Rashidis won the internal struggle over Najd against the Saudis in the early 20th century, we might have seen an open-minded, modern Mashriq by today.

    Coupled with the later oil wealth and considering the complete absence of Wahhabi extremism in this scenario, it could also have resulted in a politically united Arabia at least east of Egypt.
     
  14. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    Hmm. Well, what if this new egypt with some luck manages to establish itself in Sudan, Egypt and the Levant at first. And then later, as the situation changes, it expands more (perhaps with an alt world war).
     
  15. Soverihn Proud Tribalist

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    Iraq joins Nasser's UAR in 1957, tilting the balance of that union decisively in favor of the Nasserists both at home (preserving its stability) and in the Arab Cold War. Prince Talal rallies his Free Princes movement upon seeing the apparent success of the Nasserists in the late 50s and successfully launches a coup following the weakening of King Saud. Saudi Arabia joins soon after, and the Gulf monarchies are soon swept aside in a wave of popular revolutions much like 1848. Without Saudi support, Yemen falls to the UAR and officially joins in. Lebanon falls to a sponsored coup the moment US troops are unable to keep the lid on the sectarian mess bubbling up.

    Finally in 1969, upon Jafar Nimeiry's coup in Sudan, his pro Arab nationalism stance and initial popularity lets him smoothly integrate the Sudanese republic with the burgenoning and blossoming UAR; the Sudanese people having growed increasingly apathetic to a decade of sluggish growth, isolation, and political instability.

    Throw in a probably inevitable war with Israel that this massive superstate manages to conquer it via changing doctrine to mobilize intiative among ground troops, logistics, coordination, investing in better AA guns, and copious amounts of Soviet surplus and you've got everything united around 1970.

    So the population would likely be less than what is historically the case; combination of greater wealth, Nasserist policies on education prior to Intifah, women's emancipation/education, and urbanization would mean a smaller fertility rate and therefore an earlier demographic transition. Entire thing might be around 200-250 million or so.

    Just by oil and manpower alone it would be a regional powerhouse or a great power.

    This theoretical state houses I believe slightly over 30% of the world's proven oil reserves and would hold immense deposits of minerals (including aluminium, barite, basalt, gold, silica, marble, limestone, precious gems, etc). Additionally it would have an utterly massive domestic market of buyers that would be well linked and educated through its oil wealth and import substitution policies. Other important sectors include vast agriculture potential in grains, cotton, citrus; and and given Nasserist policies large amounts of heavy industry (your milage may vary on how efficient it'll be) alongside an emphasis on transport and shipping. Oh and of course, the inevitable service sector. Hard to estimate how that will go since it depends on so many factors.

    Difficult to determine. There likely will be be great pressure to assimilate or at least learn Arabic.

    Yes; the Nasserist policies of import substitution can do a lot to start from scratch given the huge domestic market for labor intensive manufacturing and the subsidies from oil paying for basically everything at first, up to and including a robust welfare state and quality education. The best part is education would get much more efficient over time as the increasingly educated classes are able to aid their children in school and in turn invest in education privately.

    Would take a few decades to get the necessary critical mass of literati, accumulated business and technical knowledge, and R&D funding, but looking at China and Iran we have successful models of state led programs to dramatically expand research in just a few decades.
     
  16. Socrates Well-Known Member

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    I believe Yemen had twice the population of Egypt at this time, so it's not as easy as you might think.
     
  17. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting. Do you think the general image of Arabs on the world stage would be vastly more positive than otl? And the islamic extremism as we know will cease to exist or at least be crubed to a massive degree?
     
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  18. Soverihn Proud Tribalist

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    I'd think so.

    Much of Islamism and its more reactionary tenants are a response to the failures of Arab nationalism, so I'd think it'd be curbed heavily. Qutbism (and other related ideological tenants) was already a thing so its not going to disappear entirely but will be much more fringe.
     
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  19. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    And on the side note, I think it will also help if a strong national identity can develop. Where everyone feels they are on people. Where being Sudanese or Omani is secondary to being Arab. Of course each region will have its unique properties, but all countries are like that. Seperatism will still exist but it may well have less support and be much less violent. Probably on the level of separatism in western european countries.
     
  20. Noscoper Well-Known Member

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    Source ?