WI luck had gone the other way in July 1861, Bull Run/ Manassases is a clear Union Victory.
By August the Army of Northern Virginia does not exist and Richmond is in the hands of the lawful government of the United States.
In OTL Republicans and Lincoln though disliking slavery had not felt able to interfere with it. The Emancipation Proclamation was a war emergency measure and had the war been won easily there would be no emergency.
What happens in the South.
My guess is there would be no attempt at Social Revolution in the South but some leaders of the rebellion would have danced Danny Deaver, any thoughts