Union State

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So let's say the SSRs in red (along with Abkhazia) don't become independent. However, the USSR still dissolves, yet it becomes a capitalist "Confederation of Independent States". How will the politics of this CIS go? Does it resemble the OTL 1990s? I am curious about how the Nargono-Karabakh War goes, seeing as how Armenia is independent but Azerbaijan isn't.
 

Deleted member 14881

I'm not sure how the 90s would end up economically or politically but I can see Armenia backing an "Artaskh Republican Army" kind of like how Irish-Americans did with the IRA, because anyone who backs an open conflict with this Rump-USSR would be laughed out of Yerevan.
 
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