Union Response to Pacific Republic

In 1860-61 about 1/3 of the population of the population of California was pro-Confederate... Many of these Southern simpathizers saw it as their duty
to take care of Confederate interests in the West, sep. in California. To that end, they formed several secret societies to further their cause. They relized
that they were too small of a minority to have any chance of bringing CA into the CSA, but thought that if they could form a coalition with certain other
groups they could get CA, OR, Utah Territory (including Nevada), and the northern section of New Mexico Territory (CSA claimed the southern section as
Arizona Territory) to secede as the Pacific Republic. To that end they devised a plan to seize control of San Francisco and the San Francisco Bay, and
declare the Republic.

Looking at the 1860 election results, and the number of people in CA that were ineligible to vote, I think that if they had gotten that far (They had hoped
that brevet Brigadier General Albert Sidney Johnson, commander of the army's Depart of the Pacific, would join there cause; but were sorely dissapointed.),
they might have been able to gain the support of the people of CA, and probably could have gained the suport of the territories as well... Oregon would have
been difficult, but might have been do able... In the map below, green show the areas I think would have become part of , or at least claimed by, the Pacific
Republic... (Not sure about the green and blue stripe area, but it had a small enough population that they might as well claim it...

So, my question is, how would The Union/Lincoln have responded? Would they/he have ignored the Pacific Republic while they fought the CSA (w/o CA gold
to keep them solvent) and then tried to retake the West after the CSA was defeated? Would they/he try to put the war w/ the CSA on hold until the West
was reclaimed? Or would they/he have tried to fight both the CSA and the Pacific Republic at the same time?

CivilWarRepublicOfTheWestB.png
 
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I would think the Californian's claim for independence would have probably been taken lightly (it's still fairly unrealistic). It might be treated like Missouri, who also "seceded" from the Union. Any real attempts to secede would have been swiftly crushed. I doubt Utah would have been claimed by California, considering the stigma Mormons had at the time. The Mormons probably would have wanted to become an independent nation themselves-Deseret. Maybe if the C.S.A. won, a possibility of California seceding would be more likely, but they certainly wouldn't be able to hold the massive amount of land you have them claiming.
 
If it was Pro-Confederate it would only be California.

That said, if it did do so their's a 50/50 chance that Oregon and the then Washington Territory would secede as a seperate nation as well (their was support IOTL, the only reaso they did'nt was because they thought it'd make them look Pro-CSA.) though it would be pro-Union.
 
The population of the territories is miniscule, that of Oregon and California well below half a million and two thirds of California is pro-Union, virtually everyone in Oregon and sparsely populated Nevada.
 
Ok, Is this map better? I was already thinking that the Pacific Republic would have to declare official neutrality in the war between the CSA and the USA, in
order to build a coalition of support... Also, I recognize that there is a huge difference between claiming territories and holding them, but I figure that if the
land is unpopulated you might as well claim it, so that if you end up at the barginning table you can afford to give something up without hurting your
interests...

In any case, my main question is how much of a priority is Lincoln going to put on regaining control of the West? Is he going to to dispatch troops and/or the
US naval fleet immediately, or will he wait a few months hoping to quickly defeat the CSA first? For example, if the Pacific Republic declared its independence
on April 10, 1961, when would US troops show arrive to reclaim it?

CivilWarRepublicOfTheWestC.png
 
As I said, it would not include Oregon.

It might be able to get Nevada, and maybe a small bit of borderlands with the New Mexico/Arizona Territory, but that's about it.
 
In any case, my main question is how much of a priority is Lincoln going to put on regaining control of the West? Is he going to to dispatch troops and/or the US naval fleet immediately, or will he wait a few months hoping to quickly defeat the CSA first? For example, if the Pacific Republic declared its independence on April 10, 1961, when would US troops show arrive to reclaim it?

The majority of the populace does not want to secede. The majority of the troops are either pro-Union or have left to join the CSA. Best case, if Lincoln botches what he handled successfully in OTL, is a short-lived state holding some of southern California with its capital in San Francisco. Regular US troops and volunteers from the pro-Union areas would probably suppress the revolt before Lincoln had time to decide on a response.
 
You're doing a good job, but I think you're going to have to wait until the U.S. loses the Civil War (and maybe a few decades after that) and have events line up to encourage secession. I'm glad you put in Deseret, but I agree that Oregon probably won't join California. You could create a third nation: Oregon-Columbia. The northwest had considered becoming its own nation, but not much ever came of it. If you play your cards right though, you could have the entire West break off from the Union. I think it would be best to rely on the domino effect here. No Pacific Republic in 1866, but maybe in 1876 or 1886. Try having the C.S.A. become independent, then domino Deseret, your Pacific Republic, and Oregon-Columbia. This gets away from your Lincoln's response question, but I think time isn't on your side here. I would shoot for later and dominos.

Also, if the Pacific Republic declared its independence on April 10, 1961 I think the Union troops would have to fight off a fair amount of Soviets to reclaim it.
 
Ok, so Oregon, etc., would want to be separate from the Pacific Republic... Any chance they would agree to be part of the Pacific Republic until the US recognizes their independence and then divide... This would allow CA to split into up to 3.5 states and Oregon to possibly split into 1.5, and Shasta/Jefferson (the two halves, might have a diff name than the proposals had in OTL) could decide which republic to join by referendum...

Also, if the Pacific Republic declared its independence on April 10, 1961 I think the Union troops would have to fight off a fair amount of Soviets to reclaim it.
Good catch and very funny ... but that was a typo, I meant April 10, 1861...

The reason I want the declaration to be then, and am interested in Lincoln's response is because of the possible outcomes:
1. If he waits the Pacific Republic will have time to organize and prepare, increasing their chances of success w/ or w/o CSA success.
2. If he decides to act, geography will force the attack to be a mixture of naval assault and amphibious invasion...
a. If it is mainly a naval attack w/ a secondary amphibious invasion, then he will need to take direct action against the SF Bay. In this case, prudence would dictate he prepare for the possibility that the Pacific Republicans have fully garrisoned Fort Point, Fort Alcatraz, and the Citadel of Alcatraz (Considered a separate fort inside Fort Alcatraz, and either could have easily qualified as a fort in their own right independently)... Considering the strength of these 3 forts, it would probably have taken half of the then existing US Navy to regain control of the bay... [obviously they could blockade the bay with fewer ships, but then the Pacific Republic could use one of its many other ports (LA, San Diego, Monterey, Portland being the larger ones, but smaller ones also being options)... and then if necessary the Pacific Republic could probably have been self sufficient for quite a while if they were willing to do without some luxuries.]
b. If it is mainly an amphibious invasion w/ the naval attack being support, it would still require a large number of ships, and would also take significant land forces away from combat with the CSA...
Any of these could cause major butterflies...
 
In order for California to succesfuly secede and form it's own nation along with whatever bits of surrounding states wnat to accompany them something kind of major would have to spark a much wider rebellious sentiment. Perhaps something occured to make these western states more sympathetic to the rebel cause, or alienated from the north.. either way it's not going to happen without something to encourage it. It wasn't ever a serious concern IOTL because there really wasn't any realistic way for them to accomplish this. Asuming however you manage to butterfly away these objections, an independent California and Deseret is huge. That essentially means half of the Union just jumped ship, it would be a majot morale blow to the North, and would lend credence to the southern cause on the global scale. I think that if this happened European powers would be far more likely to acknowledge the CSA. After all, with not one but three new Countries being formed out of the US it's much harder to argue that its "just a rebellion" In addition to that, dispatching troops and ships to pacify these areas, especially if they were determined to remain free, would be a massive venture. It would not only draw away huge ammounts of men from the western front, but it would be a strategic nightmare supplying and controlling that kind of manpower so far from Washington. As far as the fleet goes, if Lincoln has to send ships to california there goes the bloackade on the rebels, which would mean they could get the supplies and arms they so desprately needed. All in all a Californian State would probably result in a CSA victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to hold on to their Arizona claims in addition to the Kentuck and the rest of the seceded states. As for Deseret, even if California maintains indepence, which it probably would, it probably wouldn't. There wouldn't be many groups willing to help them, and it's a good deal easier to take back for the union then California, though I could easily see it being a frequent trouble spot for years to come.
 
So there seems to be a consensus that an 1860-1861 POD is too late to have enough support in the West for the Pacific Republic, unless the POD is something huge and borderline or totally ASB. Would a seemingly minor POD 10-20 yrs earlier that leads to a series of caterpillars (that’s what you’d call baby butterflies, right?) that lead to discontent work? I mean things so small that they would not make a noticeable major difference before 1860, but would create an undercurrent of discontent. Obviously, when I'm ready to turn this into a timeline, include specific details of what these changes are, but for now, I want to know if this is viewed as a viable option.
 
Given that there would be more people on the spot supporting the Union than the Confederacy or other secession and that it is unclear that any separatist movement can scrape up as many as ten thousand men in California, and effectively none in Oregon or Nevada, and that under the most favorable condition, it will take a marginal effort by Lincoln to restore the status quo.

Ten thousand men with some ships carrying arms for Union loyalists will be all that is needed and possibly more than is needed to do the trick.


Eire7, it's not just the POD, it is the utter lack of a population base for any credible movement.
 
I would think the Californian's claim for independence would have probably been taken lightly (it's still fairly unrealistic). It might be treated like Missouri, who also "seceded" from the Union. Any real attempts to secede would have been swiftly crushed. I doubt Utah would have been claimed by California, considering the stigma Mormons had at the time. The Mormons probably would have wanted to become an independent nation themselves-Deseret. Maybe if the C.S.A. won, a possibility of California seceding would be more likely, but they certainly wouldn't be able to hold the massive amount of land you have them claiming.

Missouri did not secede. When the secession convention - the body authorized to decide the issue - decided not to secede, the governor and secessionist members of the legislature left the state capital and set up a breakaway government in southwestern Missouri that declared its (and Missouri's) loyalty to the Confederacy, and was admitted as a state by the Confederate Congress. They never controlled most of the state's territory, and after a bit of fighting in the southwest ended up in exile in Arkansas, while the former "secession" convention ran the state itself (in view of the governor's having left his office....) as a Union state. Similar history for Kentucky, by the way, except that the legislature was mostly Unionist and remained in existence.

To the larger point: on principle, secession is secession and it would have been intellectually inconsistent for Lincoln to ignore breakaway states on the West Coast while going to war against the Confederacy. As a practical matter, who knows?
 
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