Union of the Councils of the Socialist Republics vs Nihon

[wkwillis]

Let's say that the Russians kick the Japanese out of Manchuria, China, and Korea at Nomonhon. Stalin tells the army to have at it. Three months of hard fighting and the Japanese army in China is cut off from resupply of ammo while the Japanese home islands are being blockaded by Russian submarines.
This has five effects.
1. Japan has been destroyed as a great power after it loses it's investments in Korea and Manchuria, and eventually the Kuriles, southern Sakhalin, Taiwan, and the Marianas. America doesn't need such a big navy. Ditto Britain.
2. China is a Russian ally, especially the Kuomintang. Stalin didn't have a lot of use for the Chinese Communist Party. They might get Taiwan when the Japanese surrender. Or they might get Manchuria, or both.
3. The anticommunists will be fuming about the Russian subs sinking their ships. The American right will go on record as saying that we have to fight anyone who uses subs against American ships. This will affect the US navy during the Battle of the Atlantic, if there is one.
4. The Russian army will be experienced. When the German army attacks in June of 1941, the Russians will butcher them immediately.
5. The Korean Communist Party will be a Russian satellite. This means the Yalu hydroelectric facilities as well.

 

[NapoleonXIV]

This becomes especially interesting when we consider how Britain is going to feel about Russia Ascendant in the Far East, not to mention America. Britain had been allied with the Japanese and while no longer friendly might very well jump in, to protect her interests in the Pacific. Whether she does or doesn't America will also watch this situation with considerable attention. Should Britain go to war for the Japanese I see America as well, since both saw the Pacific as in their sphere.

That would be neat, Remember Pearl Harbor, when the new super long range Russian bombers sank the Arizona, Prince of Wales and Akagi

 

[Max Sinister]

But would the Soviets win that easily? Wouldn't the Japanese fight for several years? That could end up good for Hitler - A lot of Russian troops will be bound in the East. And if Japan fights Russia, they'll have the sympathies of many people in the US - could FDR still be successful with his embargo against them?

 

[wkwillis]

But would the Soviets win that easily? Wouldn't the Japanese fight for several years? That could end up good for Hitler - A lot of Russian troops will be bound in the East. And if Japan fights Russia, they'll have the sympathies of many people in the US - could FDR still be successful with his embargo against them?

In OTL the Russians beat the Japanese at Nomonhon in '36 (IIRC) and in '45. Both times they beat them easily. In 1936 Russia hasn't had it's big army purge yet. Logistically Manchuria and Korea are pretty easy, so is Sakhalin, though Taiwan would require a general Japanese surrender.
As for American sympathy, it was one sided in favor of China, especially after the Rape of Nanking. Even the Nazi consul in Nanking was unhappy about that one.
Forget the embargo. No embargo if the Japanese are out of China, Korea, and the Pacific Islands. Come to think of it, the Japanese might sell the Pacific Islands to the US during the war with Russia.

 

[Admiral Matt]

Quite right. Japan had fallen far behind on modern land warfare. It's actually a bit surprising how much they let themselves slip. They wouldn't have had a chance if the Russians decided to push the war. In OTL Stalin didn't out of the (fairly justified) fear that it would bring all the powers down on his head in a large scale war.

That said, a large scale war occurred regardless, so it probably would have been worth it. Manchuria and Korea were firmly within Soviet range and the fighting there would be quick and one-sided. Russian projection power in southern China was negligible, but without a base in the north the Japanese would eventually be driven off by the Chinese themselves. Taiwan would probably be pretty safely Japanese, come what may.

I could imagine the Japanese selling off a couple islands, but national pride would probably limit that sort of thing. One thing is for sure - Japan will have no role in WW2.

Speaking of which, the war ought to be quite different. The British will be much more concerned with events in the Far East - expect even more appeasement. Hitler's ideal alliance with Britain is probably not too workable, though, as he'll still feel the need to gobble up most of his neighbors. It's hard to tell whether there would be a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact or a Western Front at all...

 

[The Sandman]

How will the Russians get to Japan?

I would agree that the Soviet ground forces would crush the Japanese, although the end of the Chinese adventure (assuming that the Japanese probably manage to evacuate the bulk of their troops) also means more troops available when the Japanese head south. And they will; imperial prestige, resource shortages and the weakness of the European powers make the Asian colonies too tempting of a target to pass up.

In the meantime, though, how exactly will the Russians get to Japan, Taiwan, or Sakhalin for that matter? AFAIK, the Russian Navy wasn't anything to write home about during WWII, and the IJN is presumably at the top of its game here. The Japanese would acknowledge the loss of its mainland possessions, but there's no way in hell they would hand over territories that the Russians could not possibly have invaded.

 

[Wendell]

Could the Soviets have pushed the Japanese out of the Asian mainland, but lose control of Northern Sakhalin to Japan? I could definitely see Japan selling to the U.S. the islands it took from Germany in World War I. I also have little doubt that the Americans would be in this war by the time the Russians got anywhere near Formosa.

 

[wkwillis]

I would agree that the Soviet ground forces would crush the Japanese, although the end of the Chinese adventure (assuming that the Japanese probably manage to evacuate the bulk of their troops) also means more troops available when the Japanese head south. And they will; imperial prestige, resource shortages and the weakness of the European powers make the Asian colonies too tempting of a target to pass up.

In the meantime, though, how exactly will the Russians get to Japan, Taiwan, or Sakhalin for that matter? AFAIK, the Russian Navy wasn't anything to write home about during WWII, and the IJN is presumably at the top of its game here. The Japanese would acknowledge the loss of its mainland possessions, but there's no way in hell they would hand over territories that the Russians could not possibly have invaded.

1. Sakhalin had a land border. The strait between Sakhalin and the mainland is narrow, susceptible to small boat crossing, combined with air support against naval intercepts in the straits. The Russian air force was large compared to the Japanese air force and battleships and carriers aren't very usefull in the Sakhalin channel.
2. Japan would have collapsed to submarine blockade. The British survived because they had enigma, radar, a large navy, a large airforce, a large merchant marine, and plentiful foreign credit. The Japanese had none of that, though their navy wasn't that bad.
3. The US didn't like Japan because of the Japanese murdering millions of Chinese. Also, the Japanese were competitors in our markets. It was the millions of murdered Chinese the Americancs didn't like most.