Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics

The Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics is a confederation of 12 member states, 8 of which were among the 15 republics in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics:

Azerbijan
Belarus
Kazkahstan
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

It also contains 4 republics which were once territory within one of the original 15 Soviet republics:

Abkhazia
East Ukraine
South Ossetia
Transnistria

Additionally, the Balkan states of Krajina, Serbia, and the Serbian Republic of Bosnia have all expressed some interest in joining the USSR.

The USSR flag has a red background, with 12 red stars, each bordered by yellow, in the upper left corner.

Each member state in the USSR contributes about 2% of GDP to fund the central government in Moscow, which consists of a presidency, legislature, and supreme court. Member states have their own embassies, their own seats at the UN, and their own armies. However, all share a common currency (ruble), and a unified military command, which controls the USSR's nuclear weapons.

The USSR has a total population of 280 million. Although less than half of the USSR is ethnic Russian, native Russian speakers account for more than half, due to the large Russophone Ukrainian population in the republic of East Ukraine.

POD... ?
 
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I would say "No Yeltsin". Gorbachev got his "Rump USSR". Communist system is a thing of the past. However, name "Soviet" (noun) is kept for elective assemblies for sentimental reasons and to underscore shared background of all member countries. Later on nationalistic movements tore Ukraine apart, with Western Ukraine and Galicia becoming separate "State of Ukraine". Both Ukraines are in bitter dispute as per which is true Ukrainian state. However, Western media slapped "Eastern" tag on Soviet Ukraine (which really consists of Eastern and Southern Ukraine and Crimea, i.e. it has more than half of "Communist" Ukraine's population and 80% of industry) to paint "Asiatic" (a.k.a. "backward") image of the country. Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Transnistria petitioned to join new USSR after successful struggle with nationalistic regimes of Moldova and Georgia. Balkan territories joined in mid-1990s (after so-called "Gorbachev's Oil Miracle", sudden rise of oil prices to unheard-of $80 per barrel in 1994-1995; it gave USSR authorities money to carry out economic reforms and cushion transition blow) to avoid being attacked by foreign powers on trumped up charges of human rights violations. They were reluctant to join initially, but so-called "Medak events" (total annihilation of Serbian population of Medak region by Croatian militants, protected by NATO armoured units and air cover) convinced them that the USSR is their only chance to escape destruction and genocide.

So, 3 main PODs: Gorbachev's "Rump USSR" plan succeeds, oil price jumps in mid-1990s and Croats get more aggressive (this is possible consequence of POD #1).
 
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I would say "No Yeltsin".

In which case Ryzhkov wins Russia's 1991 presidential election, and instead of Russia having an anti-Communist president who wants to dismantle the USSR, it has a Communist president who wants to help Gorby preserve it.

Gorbachev got his "Rump USSR". Communist system is a thing of the past. However, name "Soviet" (noun) is kept for elective assemblies for sentimental reasons and to underscore shared background of all member countries.
Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics actually was the original proposed name for the new union. In OTL it got changed to Union of Sovereign States by the final draft, but assuming the change was due in part to objections from Yeltsin, the original name would be more likely to remain in this ATL.

Later on nationalistic movements tore Ukraine apart, with Western Ukraine and Galicia becoming separate "State of Ukraine". Both Ukraines are in bitter dispute as per which is true Ukrainian state.
This could unfold in two ways:

In OTL Ukraine was one of the 7 republics that opposed the new union treaty. Maybe Ukraine doesn't sign the treaty in this ATL either, but Russophone Ukraine wants to join the new USSR, and hence Ukrainian division occurs.

Or, Ukraine signs the treaty in this ATL, but then later withdraws from the new USSR for some reason, and then the Ukranian division occurs.


However, Western media slapped "Eastern" tag on Soviet Ukraine (which really consists of Eastern and Southern Ukraine and Crimea, i.e. it has more than half of "Communist" Ukraine's population and 80% of industry) to paint "Asiatic" (a.k.a. "backward") image of the country.
I was thinking Soviet "East" Ukraine would just be the 7 overwhelmingly Russophone oblasts, running from Odessa in the south to Kharkiv and Donetsk in the east, which would have a total population of about 18 million. However if it includes Dnipropetrovsk and the other three central-eastern oblasts where Russian is somewhat less dominant, then yes that would give Soviet Ukraine a population of about 25 million, compared to 20 million in the State of Ukraine.

(after so-called "Gorbachev's Oil Miracle", sudden rise of oil prices to unheard-of $80 per barrel in 1994-1995; it gave USSR authorities money to carry out economic reforms and cushion transition blow)
I hadn't considered an earlier rise in oil prices...

I was thinking that with a more gradual transition to a market economy instead of "shock therapy", and without the disruption caused by trade barriers in what had been a common economic space, Russia's GDP today might be about the same as in OTL, but without having experienced the wild swing from collapse to boom that it did post-1991 in OTL.

In OTL, from 1992-1998 Russian GDP declined by 40%, an average rate of -7% per year (-12% per year from 1992-1994). Growth then averaged 7% per year from 1999-2008, with GDP not returning to its 1990 level until 2007.

In this ATL, Russia's growth for most of 1992-2008 might instead have been relatively flat, experiencing a much less severe decline in the early 90's, but also a slower takeoff afterwards, not reaching 5%+ growth rates until around 2005.
 
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USSR presidency: Who is elected President of the USSR in 1995, 2000, and 2005? Is Gorbachev now in his fourth term there?

In 1990, Gorbachev was elected President by the Congress of People's Deputies, where he had to receive 2/3rds of the vote, or there would have been a general election. Does Gorby ever run in a general election in this ATL, or does he just keep getting re-elected by the COPD?

Russian presidency: Who wins the Russian presidential elections of 1996, 2001, and 2006?

NATO expansion: Does it happen in this ATL?

Chechen conflict: Does it happen in this ATL?

If so, it probably goes better for Russia- for one thing, with the Russian economy not completely collapsing as in OTL, the Russian military won't be in such a dismal state either.
 
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