The usual assumption made in a CSA victory scenario is that the Confederates win due to European (i.e. British/French) interference in the Civil War, followed by an Entente-Confederate alliance, parallel to one between the Union and the German Empire. I suppose my question is, then, in two parts; what is the easiest way for the CSA to win without British and/or French intervention, and in a world in which the Confederates win, how could the United States still end up allied with the British and French?
Union-Entente Alliance in a CSA Victory Scenario?
- Thread starter Calcaterra
- Start date
Germany could come to the conclusion that the CSA would make the perfect trade partner. The CSA supplies them with cotton, sugar and food stuffs, and acts as a market for German weapons and finished goods. I'm not sure if they would be interested in a military alliance with them, though.
So the easiest way for the CSA to win without British/French intervention also sort of involves British/French intervention. Basically, some crushing battle (a "super Glendale" followed by another Second Bull Run and a march on Washington) would probably see the European powers offer mediation to the Union and Lincoln may be forced to accept. The second option is a "peace of exhaustion" from political factors in 1864 which sees both sides exhausted.
As to the second part, it would depend on European politics between 1864 and 1900. Does the French Empire still fall? Does the German Empire still form? What happens in Russia in this time? Do the European powers still engage in a scramble for Africa? None of these are really trivial questions in a lead up to an alternate WWI, and much does indeed depend on this and how it ends up affecting the United States.
As to the second part, it would depend on European politics between 1864 and 1900. Does the French Empire still fall? Does the German Empire still form? What happens in Russia in this time? Do the European powers still engage in a scramble for Africa? None of these are really trivial questions in a lead up to an alternate WWI, and much does indeed depend on this and how it ends up affecting the United States.
But the cotton could not get past the Allied blockade, and anyway the CS could equally well sell it to the Entente.
Indeed, if both Union and confederate ships are getting sunk by u-boats, isn't it entirely possible that they *both* come in on
the Entente side?
One of my real dislikes in CSA Alternate History's is the idea that WW1 starts exactly as in our timeline, but the Central Powers win because America joins.
In my view if there is even a chance America is joining that war on Germany's side, Britain is staying well clear. One of Grey's main arguments for entry was the country would lose as much by staying out as it would by fighting. If a potentially aggressive Union sits on the Canadian border, even the hyper-imperialist faction of the Tories wont be convinced.
Equally, by 1914 Britain wasn't massively into propping up unstable backwards states anymore. Lord Salisbury had shifted British attention from the Ottomans a generation earlier for example, because propping them up was more hassle than it was worth. Assuming Britain is a Confederate semi-ally early on (and even this is unlikely because 19th century Britain despised slavery like nothing else), I think Salisbury would have affected a similar shift away from a Confederate alliance.
If the Union adopts a similar neutral policy post-civil war defeat, as it did in the wake of victory, relations are probably better between Britain and America in my opinion. As the Monroe doctrine is basically destroyed. America could then still intervene in the war for the same reasons as OTL, mainly Germany not caring about international law and the US wanting to protect its interests. It doesn't necessarily have to be a case of America joining to fight the CSA.
Germany, wanting an informal empire, starts meddling in Latin America. Invading Venezuela and setting up a puppet (using debt as a pretext), gaining French Guyana and Caribbean in the Franco-Prussian War, allying with Chili and/or Argentina... The USA are pissed.
In addition, US and German interests collide in the Pacific (Samoa).
So, Germany gets closer to the CSA. Being otherwise a pariah, the CSA accepts. Maybe not a military alliance, but a close trade partnership.
In addition, US and German interests collide in the Pacific (Samoa).
So, Germany gets closer to the CSA. Being otherwise a pariah, the CSA accepts. Maybe not a military alliance, but a close trade partnership.