Union attacks first

As we all know, the first shots of the American Civil War were fired by the Confederates at Fort Sumter. When this crisis arose Lincoln had 3 options. Surrender, Attack, or resupply. Lincoln had chosen to resupply the fort. What if Lincoln decided to order the troops at fort sumter to attack first? What would the result of this attack be? What impact would this have on international relations?
 
Pre Fort Sumter, Many Northerners were willing to left the South Go.
Newspapers were starting to use a Confederate Byline for Southern News.
Congress was dragging its feet over expanding the Army, and the Army was having trouble recruiting up to the pre war authorization.
Fort Sumter changed that. It gave Lincoln a Bloody Shirt to wave. Lincoln wrapped himself in the Union Flag, and Waved the Bloody shirt for all the mileage He could get.

If Lincoln orders a First Strike Attack, then this gives the South the Bloody Shirt, and Lincoln a lot of Political Problems.

However this would not be Fort Sumter.
Sumter Island is a tiny piece of Land, in the Middle of Charleston Harbor. The fort was designed to reinforce the more powerful Land based Guns, by covering the centre of the Harbor.

The Fort has [had] most of its strength facing Seaward, and the Commander was well aware that he was very vulnerable to the Harbor Fort Guns.
If the Supplies hadn't reached Him when they did, He would probably have surrendered within a week. No way He would Attack.
 
Why at Sumter? It was untenable, so Lincoln would be both making himself the aggressor, and starting off with an unsuccessful aggression to boot.

If he was going to do anything like that, wouldn't Ft Pickens be better? It was secure against capture by the Confederates, so at least the aggression doesn't have to end in failure.
 
Warfare by politics

If Lincoln attacks first, Kentucky will go South, and Maryland will try to. Missouri, maybe.

The Kiat

Absolutely right about Kentucky. Western Maryland, too. It might be a little tough for eastern Maryland to follow with their western cousins. In 1850, Missouri would be gone. But the waves of Pro-Unionist German immigrants that came into Missouri in the following decade? The immigrants who helped keep the state in the Union IOTL MIGHT be enough to prevent it's loss ITTL. That or create a state-wide Missouri Civil War.
 
The Kiat

Absolutely right about Kentucky. Western Maryland, too. It might be a little tough for eastern Maryland to follow with their western cousins. In 1850, Missouri would be gone. But the waves of Pro-Unionist German immigrants that came into Missouri in the following decade? The immigrants who helped keep the state in the Union IOTL MIGHT be enough to prevent it's loss ITTL. That or create a state-wide Missouri Civil War.

Re Missouri: Like OTL, in other words?

Re Maryland: We would try to secede, but we would be squashed. We are between Washington and the rest of the Union. If Lincoln let us go, he can kiss the war goodbye. How can he claim control over the CSA if the Stars and Bars fly from the White House?

I pretty much agree with DuQuense. OTL, Lincoln managed to get the CSA to seem like the aggressors, and was able to rally the Union behind the war as a result. Without that, the war effort is much more fractured and public support for the war is much less. The effect on international relations is much less certain. I think it depends more on the actual results on the war, though the European powers might be more friendly to the CSA if they are seen as the defenders.
 
Let's Get the Hell Out of Dodge!

Re Missouri: Like OTL, in other words?

imperialaquila

My apologies. I should have been more clear. When I used capitalized letters for "Civil War" I was poorly communicating what I actually meant to say. IOTL, only the relatively sparsely populated southwestern third of Missouri was staunchly Pro-Confederate. The other two-thirds tended to fall into the "leave me alone" or "Pro-Unionist" categories, depending on where you were and who you were.

Fast thinking Union generals secured St. Louis fairly quickly, and much of the northern portions of the state along the Iowa border had an initial Pro-Unionist sympathy. I only meant to say that ITTL, as opposed to OTL, you could see a rapid statewide breakdown of Federal authority from state-line to state-line, resulting in more of a Hatfield vs. McCoys situation ALL over the state. IOTL, the fighting was certainly about the most bloody, most ruthless, in the ACW. But there WERE plenty of places in the northern/eastern parts of the state that were relatively safe. ITTL?:eek::eek::eek:

EDIT: Actually, you could expect a Confederate state government to set up (as one did briefly IOTL) in Jefferson City, but with FAR greater and lasting support from the inhabitants
 
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imperialaquila

My apologies. I should have been more clear. When I used capitalized letters for "Civil War" I was poorly communicating what I actually meant to say. IOTL, only the relatively sparsely populated southwestern third of Missouri was staunchly Pro-Confederate. The other two-thirds tended to fall into the "leave me alone" or "Pro-Unionist" categories, depending on where you were and who you were.

Fast thinking Union generals secured St. Louis fairly quickly, and much of the northern portions of the state along the Iowa border had an initial Pro-Unionist sympathy. I only meant to say that ITTL, as opposed to OTL, you could see a rapid statewide breakdown of Federal authority from state-line to state-line, resulting in more of a Hatfield vs. McCoys situation ALL over the state. IOTL, the fighting was certainly about the most bloody, most ruthless, in the ACW. But there WERE plenty of places in the northern/eastern parts of the state that were relatively safe. ITTL?:eek::eek::eek:

EDIT: Actually, you could expect a Confederate state government to set up (as one did briefly IOTL) in Jefferson City, but with FAR greater and lasting support from the inhabitants

Ah, many thanks. That is much more clear now. I agree with what you are saying, though Missouri will probably never be more than a sideshow in the overall war.
 
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