Union and Liberty: An American TL

[Ganesha]

I do have a few questions about this map and the recent turn of events.

1. Is this a three-way war? Because there are different coalitions.
2. Why does Russia join against France and Germany?

The orange is the Lega di Mediteraneo, which is supported by the Coalition - the red alliance. They are not close allies, but they're fighting together in this war.

Russia joined the war on the Coalition side because their interests in Japan and Europe were threatened by Corea, France, and Germany.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

The orange is the Lega di Mediteraneo, which is supported by the Coalition - the red alliance. They are not close allies, but they're fighting together in this war.

Russia joined the war on the Coalition side because their interests in Japan and Europe were threatened by Corea, France, and Germany.

Cheers,
Ganesha

Thanks for that. At the previous page, I did have another set of questions. Can you answer those?

 

[QuoProQuid]

wilcox, is there any chance that you'll make part of the Great War dependent on the audience like you have done for a few elections?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

wilcox, is there any chance that you'll make part of the Great War dependent on the audience like you have done for a few elections?

Now that would be awesome!

 

[jycee]

Thanks for that. At the previous page, I did have another set of questions. Can you answer those?

These would be hard for anyone to answer since Wilcox hasn't covered most of those issues, and would otherwise be spoilers most here likely wont like to hear ahead of time.

Now that would be awesome!

Seconded. Though it will likely be after TR's reelection, which is highly likely - one does not simply win an Olympic medal and not get reelected. Perhaps then not the outcome of the war, but the outcome of the peace. Which would be just as awesome.

 

[Utgard96]

Seconded. Though it will likely be after TR's reelection, which is highly likely - one does not simply win an Olympic medal and not get reelected. Perhaps then not the outcome of the war, but the outcome of the peace. Which would be just as awesome.

I just had to meme that. Sorry.

 

[Koxinga]

These would be hard for anyone to answer since Wilcox hasn't covered most of those issues, and would otherwise be spoilers most here likely wont like to hear ahead of time.

I'd be interested to see some discussion about the likelihoods or probabilities of certain outcomes being discussed, and for fleshing out a more detailed sense of these countries and their agendas.

As i've mentioned before, from what i've seen so far from wilcox regarding the relative strengths of the combatants and their alliances, it will be hard to see an outcome that is too unfavorable against the Alliance Caorlingien, but they don't really seem to have too many lined up on their side anywhere else in the world outside of Corea, who is in a tremendous disadvantage surrounded by China, Japan, and Russia- we all know how well that worked out iOTL.

But then, China hasn't declared their intentions yet, and I could see them aligning with the Coreans over the Russians and Japanese. I would have a hard time seeing all three of Turkey, Persia, and Egypt lining up behind the New Coalition, Persia in particular with Russia and British India on their borders.

And Wilcox left of saying very interesting things about South America...

Seconded. Though it will likely be after TR's reelection, which is highly likely - one does not simply win an Olympic medal and not get reelected. Perhaps then not the outcome of the war, but the outcome of the peace. Which would be just as awesome.

Ugh, with the numbers of folks who seem eager for things to turn out just as they have in our timeline, by absorbing the most interesting things about this TL into whichever OTL imperium, i'm less enthused here. My overall sense has been people will vote for the least interesting or compelling of any given choices...

 

[IchBinDieKaiser]

Hmm. Perhaps TR's participation in the Olympics could set a precedent, at least for physically fit Presidents.

 

[wilcoxchar]

Update's done. I'll add footnotes and answer earlier comments later tonight.

Part One-Hundred Three: War, Interrupted

The War Resumed:
The Olympic truce lasted the three days after the opening ceremony from June 9th to the 12th. The commanding generals were wary of any maneuvering that happened during the truce and so the fighting soon resumed in Europe. During the truce, both sides attempted to gain an advantage. France sailed a fleet out of Marseilles to assist with the navy in Menorca and positioned more troops on the Spanish border in preparation for beginning their third invasion of the Iberian Peninsula in a century. However, the New Coalition came out of the truce with the upper hand. With Russia's entry into the Great War on June 16th, the length of the national borders on the eastern front tripled. The New Coalition also bolstered its defense in the Pyrenees as Britain sent an expeditionary force escorted by the Atlantic Fleet. The fleet ran into a French squadron that they defeated after a two day engagement, before landing the expeditionary force at San Sebastian. As the expeditionary force joined the Spaniards at Irun, France began its first initial push into Iberia.

Starting in the middle of June, France had mobilized almost five million men on the Spanish border. Like in the Seocnd Napoleonic War forty years prior, the French concentrated their forces on the coasts to skirt around the majority of the Pyrenees. The fighting in the Basque country where the million man British expeditionary force joined the Spanish was known as the Battle of the Bidasoa. For much of the latter half of 1906, the front line moved very little. Both the French and the New Coalition armies attempted to wear each other's forces down from attrition while making few major territorial offensives. However, the French had a slight upper hand in the mountains and made breakthroughs in September during which they captured the village of Ultzama five miles north of Pamplona. However, the British assistance to the Spanish on the coast prevented the French from taking San Sebastian, although the city as well as the border towns of Irun and Hendaye took large damage from artillery shellings by both sides.

On the Mediterranean, however, the fighting was nowhere near as static. The numerical advantage of the French army on the eastern side of the Pyrenees combined with the French naval dominance in the Mediterranean allowed the French to push the Spanish back quickly and gain far more ground. Unlike the Second Napoleonic War, the French armies were almost entirely focused near the Mediterranean coast and not divided between the coast and the Segre basin. However, the French did advance somewhat down the Segre, capturing Puigcerda but they were stopped and dug in before reaching Cerdanya. On the coastal offensive, the French fleet from Menorca defeated a Spanish squadron in the First Battle of the Belearic Sea and shelled Tarragona while the army advanced down the coast. By the end of September the French advance had reached the outskirts of Mataro on the coast and had captured Vic further inland. Further south, the French suffered their first significant loss in the Mediterranean Sea. A combined British-Spanish-Portuguese fleet defeated the French squadron at the Khedira base in August and forced its way through a small French blockade force at the Strait of Gibraltar[1].


The Bear Awakes:
Before the Russian entry into the Great War, the Tsar had already positioned several armies near the German and Hungarian borders. The troop placements were part of the reorganization of Russia's international focus and its transition toward greater participation in the European diplomatic stage. When Russia joined the war, they immediately started an offensive into East Prussia to try and catch the Germans off guard. The Russian offensive capture Memel early in the offensive. However, the advance was stopped by the Germans in July and prevented the Russian armies from reaching Labiau and Insterburg. Further south, the Russians were stymied by German fortifications and artillery placements in the Masurian Lakes[2]. The Russians did force Germany to mobilize more forces in the later months of 1906, but the initial offensive did not weaken Germany as much as the Tsar hoped.

Meanwhile, the Russian armies in Poland and Galicia were more successful than the East Prussian offensive. Russian armies moved across Galicia to join Hungary in their defense against hte German advance, and to stop a German attack on Krakow, the capital of Galicia. The German army moved east from Kattowitz into Galicia and Russian Poland on June 29th, and began the Siege of Krakow on July 3rd. As the Galician government was evacuated to Tarnow, the Russian forces tied up the invading Germans in the surrounding hills and prevented the Germans from getting near the city itself. However, in Hungary the Russians and Hungarians were pushed back by a continued German summer offensive. The German armies took Pressburg, Nitra, and Zilna in northern Hungary and reached Gyor in the German advance toward Budapest.

The Russians not only had an early push in Europe, but also in East Asia. The Russian Pacific Fleet moved to base on the island of Tsushima after the Korean invasion of the island was rebuffed and word reached the island that Russia had entered the war. In late July, the Russian fleet joined a Japanese fleet in a raid on the Korean port city of Busan. As the French squadron was preoccupied with the British fleet from Malaya harassing Hainan and the Chinese coast, the Koreans faced the combined Russian-Japanese force on their own. The Battle of Busan took place over four days in August of 1906. The Korean navy narrowly drove back the Russian-Japanese fleet, with Korean ships seeking respite off Geoje Island[3]. By the end of September the East Asian front had changed little, and while Tsushima had been retaken by the New Coalition, no solid gains had been made against Korea either.

[1] The navy was assisted by British submarines, marking the first use of submarines in warfare.
[2] Just as in OTL WWI, the lakes are a sore spot for the Russian offensive.
[3] Geoje Island is a large island a few miles west of Busan. It provides a secluded sound to the north and a good harbor in the city of Geoje.

 

[Ganesha]

Great update as always, Wilcox! I'll have more comments later.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Utgard96]

Good work! They should never have invaded Spain; focus on Russia first, that's what I say. The French have a good border defence in the form of the Pyrennees, that the Spaniards would have an extremely hard time invading across.

 

[Mac Gregor]

Good work! They should never have invaded Spain; focus on Russia first, that's what I say. The French have a good border defence in the form of the Pyrennees, that the Spaniards would have an extremely hard time invading across.

Agreed.

Good update. Keep it coming.

 

[Ganesha]

Good work! They should never have invaded Spain; focus on Russia first, that's what I say. The French have a good border defence in the form of the Pyrennees, that the Spaniards would have an extremely hard time invading across.

Yes, but I don't think they knew Russia was going to be a threat. In fact, I think they still don't view Russia as a threat. To the French, the thought of a British invasion from Spain was much more immediate than the Russians coming through Germany, their good ally.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[jycee]

Quite interesting!

It sounds like this Great War, will be significantly naval based. The Brits and Spanish have made it into the Mediterranean, and they are both likely set on recovering lost territory (Menorca and Malta).

While in the far east, Corea is has to avoid a Japanese or Russian landing at all costs. I kinda feel that if either gets a foothold on land Corea is lost. Once the US and California join in, this could evolve into an early Pacific War.

Yes, but I don't think they knew Russia was going to be a threat. In fact, I think they still don't view Russia as a threat. To the French, the thought of a British invasion from Spain was much more immediate than the Russians coming through Germany, their good ally.

Cheers,
Ganesha

Agree here.

Also I was kinda hoping for Galicia to backstab Russia and Hungary and join the German side. Seems like they have more to win there (chunks of Ukraine and Upper Hungary). Plus the Russians have probably not been treating Galicia too kindly in their partnership.

On the Spanish front, it kinda seems possible that France could stir some nationalist sentiment on the Basques to push further into Spain.

Also, I am still curious about Illyria. For now, their neutrality is probably quite a nuisance on Germany and Italy, who could use its alliance against the other. But I don't want it to join the wrong side.

Keep it up Wilcox!! (will you be providing maps of the campaign).

 

[wilcoxchar]

Added footnotes. Replies to your comments are below.

Have some questions about what is going to happen in the TL:

1. When will California and America join the war?
2. Will the Russian Revolution occur just like it did in OTL?
3. Will there be an Arab Revolt?
4. Which nations are on France and Germany's side?
5. Are there other nations against France and Germany?
6. Will a Lusitanian-like scenario pull America into the war?
7. Is there going to be the Zimmermann Note, only this time sent to California?

Some of these questions I can't answer because of spoilers. But I'll answer the ones I can. The Russian Revolution and Arab Revolt probably won't occur the same as OTL, but the forces behind the events are definitely still there. I'd say more so for the Arab Revolt with the earlier loss of Egypt, the humiliation of the OE in the Turkish War, and the favorable autonomy granted to Serbia and Montenegro.

Currently the sides are France and Germany against the UK, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Hungary, and Russia.

I haven't decided exactly what will trigger the US entry into the war, but it probably won't take as much to bring the US in. Depending on how I work it, California might be the trigger or joining in from an alliance with the UK, still haven't decided.

I'm conflicted; normally under these circumstances I'd want Germany to win. But under the same circumstances, France to lose. I don't know which side to support

Equally conflicted.

France and Germany are clearly the agressors here. And I've never been a fan of the über-Gemanys much less über-Frances in ATLs. But we kinda know they will be on the winning side as the US will be in their side. (Unless Wilcox pulls a Kansas City Shuffle and has the US on the loosing side of a Great War - that doesn't happen often).

Britain has been acting like a douche in TTL, Hungary isn't that much better. So you don't want them winning. But Russia has been chill in TTL and it has Alyeska, which I hope stays Russian and not get swallowed by the US.

At the same time if Illyria joins the winning side, we can see a semi-Yugoslavia if it takes the Croat lands from Hungary and some ports from Italy. Ragusa can also take some land and we might see a revitalized Dalmatia (talk about ancient rebirth). I am 100% for this.

My guess is the Ottoman's will go Alliance since Russia its traditional rival and Hungary - still kinda a rival - are on the Coalition.

Keep it up Wilcox.

Excellent. That's part of my goal for the timeline, that there aren't really any objectively good or bad sides.

Nice update. Can we get a map showing the belligerents?

Soon, I'll probably put one up of Europe later tonight or tomorrow.

Given the foreshadowing regarding California, I doubt that the US will actually lose. A pyrrhic victory for the United States could be interesting though.

The war grinds to a standstill in Europe forcing a bitter truce. While the United States makes territorial gains on its front against California, the war leaves the western and northern states ruined. The rebuilding process is complicated by the souring of relations between the minor powers of the Western Hemisphere and economic turmoil.

Yeah, I could see something like that. The United States isn't isolated by its oceans in this timeline.

And I sincerely hope it doesn't! (and not just because of the slowly increasing plausibility challenges every year, either) At the very least, I'd be thrilled if they permanently lost Alaska/Alyeska at some point, Revolution or not.......even if it just becomes a new home for the Romanovs and/or their allies and/or is a satellite for a while.

Btw, Wilcox, great update.

I haven't quite decided what to do with Alyeska yet.

interesting war so far, hopeful that it will be as interesting and well-balanced as has been the calling card of this TL thus far.

Would be interested to learn some more about warfare in this world war, such as the logistics and geographies of relative arms and armed populations of the nations of the Alliance Carolingien and the New Coalition at the start of the war. Starting WWI nearly a decade earlier than OTL would make the fighting better resemble OTL's Russo-Japanese War than the outright trench warfare of our WWI, at the same time as having two central continental powers aided to some degree by mountains in the south, oceans to the west and north, and buffer states in the east, seems to indicate to me, as someone mentioned in an earlier post, that the majority of the fighting might be contesting territories outside the core of Europe. Can this war devolve into trench warfare once the lines are settled on the fronts? It seems less likely to me here because of the geography and because of the Carolingien advantages in industry, population, and location.

My last query here is, what are the victory conditions for each nation at the outset of the war- what are they fighting for? Growing out of imperial ambitions of the Alliance Carolingien, the campaigns of each nation will be centred around the achievements of specific goals, or do we assume that Alliance Carolingien is merely seeking outright domination of the world? The war seems to have been predicated on middling southern European states grouping together to avoid consumption under Franco-Germanic dominance, with Britain likely pulling their strings to some degree.

My handicapping of this war calls for major territorial acquisitions by the Alliance Carolingien at the expense of the Lega del Mediterraneo, while in Asia one has a difficult time seeing Corea emerge victorious in the face of a Russo-Japanese double-teaming with France their only major ally with much power in the region. I would have a difficult time seeing the United States really play much of a role in this war in fact, but again, the major goals of all the parties are not clear to me outside of 'banding-together-to-halt-expansion-of-FrancoGermany,' which, really, i have a hard time seeing the New Coalition doing. Maybe I am overestimating the strength of the Alliance Carolingien at the start of the war, the weakness of the Lega, or the inability of the British to project enough power to invade France or Germany, but getting a sense of the relative military capacities of each nation at the outset might make it clearer.

I'm not really that familiar with or interested in the technical side of military history so you probably won't be seeing much on weapons and such, but I'm trying to include some information on tactics. As for victory conditions, I haven't really thought about what the two sides' long-term plans are. But Germany is now definitely making plans for what to do with Russia, where before the Russians joined they were mostly looking to help France. Britain and the rest of the New Coalition are looking to contain France and German expansion in Europe through military and economic limitations, along with colonial concessions and maybe minor territorial gains on the continent.

Attached a (really awful, sorry) map with who i saw mentioned to be on which side as of the last post- Blue for Carolingiens, Red for New Coalition, and Orange for Lega- most of the world is neutral grey, which means 'not really mentioned yet' but if we assume the US is with the Carolingiens, they're Blue too. Though not mentioned, it seemed safe to assume the Illyrians were in the Lega?

Not sure which side Turkey is on- guessing the Caorlingien but not sure so left grey. Same for northern europe- would expect Netherlands and Belgium to go Carolingien, but Scandinavians may opt for neutrality. Really it seems like there could be a diplomatic battle for allies in some strategic spots, and ways to play places against each other.

Looking at the map, with the world set up this way, it's hard to see a lot of bright signs for the Lega, even with the British and Russians backing them.

Illyria and the OE are still neutral for now, and you're missing a few of the combatants' colonies (Portuguese Africa and the Guianas mostly). Other than that the map looks good.

wilcox, is there any chance that you'll make part of the Great War dependent on the audience like you have done for a few elections?

Now that would be awesome!

I probably won't include anything interactive during the war since a lot of my plans for after depend on it. Some of the post-war events might be interactive though.

Seconded. Though it will likely be after TR's reelection, which is highly likely - one does not simply win an Olympic medal and not get reelected. Perhaps then not the outcome of the war, but the outcome of the peace. Which would be just as awesome.

I just had to meme that. Sorry.

That is brilliant.

Hmm. Perhaps TR's participation in the Olympics could set a precedent, at least for physically fit Presidents.

Possible. But looking up the fitness of politicians is hard. (f.e. I couldn't even find any numbers for TR's weight for which class boxing he'd be in so I had to guess)

Good work! They should never have invaded Spain; focus on Russia first, that's what I say. The French have a good border defence in the form of the Pyrennees, that the Spaniards would have an extremely hard time invading across.

Yes, but I don't think they knew Russia was going to be a threat. In fact, I think they still don't view Russia as a threat. To the French, the thought of a British invasion from Spain was much more immediate than the Russians coming through Germany, their good ally.

Cheers,
Ganesha

Yes, France didn't really expect Russia to be so much of a threat in Europe, and Spain and Italy are more important to France's focus as they are more helpful to Britain.

Quite interesting!

Agree here.

Also I was kinda hoping for Galicia to backstab Russia and Hungary and join the German side. Seems like they have more to win there (chunks of Ukraine and Upper Hungary). Plus the Russians have probably not been treating Galicia too kindly in their partnership.

On the Spanish front, it kinda seems possible that France could stir some nationalist sentiment on the Basques to push further into Spain.

Also, I am still curious about Illyria. For now, their neutrality is probably quite a nuisance on Germany and Italy, who could use its alliance against the other. But I don't want it to join the wrong side.

Keep it up Wilcox!! (will you be providing maps of the campaign).

With Galicia, the Russians have kept a pretty tight control on the government's opinion toward Russia so they didn't really have much room for diplomatic maneuvers.

Basque and Catalan nationalist sentiment would indeed be a good thing for the French to stir up.

Illyria is probably going to do its hardest to stay neutral. With all the armies around it, it's sitting nice and happy and peaceful in the eye of the storm and doesn't want that to change.

 

[Ganesha]

Yes, France didn't really expect Russia to be so much of a threat in Europe, and Spain and Italy are more important to France's focus as they are more helpful to Britain.

With Galicia, the Russians have kept a pretty tight control on the government's opinion toward Russia so they didn't really have much room for diplomatic maneuvers.

Basque and Catalan nationalist sentiment would indeed be a good thing for the French to stir up.

Illyria is probably going to do its hardest to stay neutral. With all the armies around it, it's sitting nice and happy and peaceful in the eye of the storm and doesn't want that to change.

It seems to me that even though Germany and France are allies, they aren't really best buds. In the end, each country views their national interests as separate, if aligned.

Illyria will be dragged into the war quite soon, I'd imagine. Eventually, one of the Great Powers will get paranoid enough that one of the others is about to invade Illyria that they'll preemptively invade and start the fighting there.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Utgard96]

When making my comment on invading Russia, I was referring to the entire Alliance, not just France. Germany should definitely focus on knocking out Russia (and Hungary, though that's almost done) as soon as possible, while maintaining a defensive posture (for now) in Italy.

 

[QuoProQuid]

As always I support the Russian and Italian war efforts.

Have the British been preparing for a possible American entry into the war? I have to wonder what the border looks like between the Canadian states and the United States. How funny would it be if the United States declared war on the 95th Anniversary of the War of 1812?


This is a bit unrelated but was the Papal Schism ever repaired? If not, will it ever be? I really hope so.

 

[jycee]

When making my comment on invading Russia, I was referring to the entire Alliance, not just France. Germany should definitely focus on knocking out Russia (and Hungary, though that's almost done) as soon as possible, while maintaining a defensive posture (for now) in Italy.

Had Moravia remained independent from Germany, and joined the German war effort, they could have stirred some nationalist sentiment amongst the Slovaks and perhaps result in a revival of Great Moravia. Alas this is not the case, but would have been cool.

As always I support the Russian and Italian war efforts.

Have the British been preparing for a possible American entry into the war? I have to wonder what the border looks like between the Canadian states and the United States. How funny would it be if the United States declared war on the 95th Anniversary of the War of 1812?

The war would need to last over six years for that. Kinda unlikely but possible.

This is a bit unrelated but was the Papal Schism ever repaired? If not, will it ever be? I really hope so.

From what I gather, it was "repaired" in the sense than no one thinks of the Temporal Pope in Puebla as the real Pope. The Catholic Church was welcomed back to Rome, and the Temporalists are now just a conservative sect operating in Mexico.

What is cool though, is that the weakened and more liberal Catholic Church has likely allowed the Americanism heresy to simply be, allowing Catholicism to further spread and integrate into American society.

It would also be cool, if you had the Temporalists build a ridiculous gaudy replica/rival to St Peter's Basicila in Puebla just cause they can.

 

[wilcoxchar]

It would also be cool, if you had the Temporalists build a ridiculous gaudy replica/rival to St Peter's Basicila in Puebla just cause they can.

Every time I see the word gaudy, I think of Gaudi instead. And that just gave me the idea of putting the Temple of the Sagrada Familia in Puebla as the Temporalist Basilica.