Union and Liberty: An American TL
- Thread starter wilcoxchar
- Start date
Part One Hundred: You Do Realize, This Means War
It begins!
Part One Hundred: You Do Realize, This Means War
The Great War Begins: After the Turkish War, relations between the European great powers became ever more strained. Italy and Spain became worried over France's expansionist stance in the region and the perceived dominance that France exerted in the sea. It took a unified diplomatic effort by Britain, Spain, and Italy to convince other nations to prevent France from gaining Tunis and Tripoli in the Treaty of Rome. In 1903, the nations of Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal formed the Lega del Mediterraneo, a unified military alliance between the lesser powers of the Mediterranean. After the dispute over the Adriatic city-states was settled, Hungary joined the alliance in 1904. While the alliance was confined to the Mediterranean, it would become critical in escalating the coming conflict into a world war.
Meanwhile, the tensions between the French and British governments were becoming increasingly difficult to resolve. After the diplomatic crises of the past decade, the French people were becoming increasingly agitated with the government and the booming economy was accompanied by a wave of national pride. The dismissal of Francois Richard Waddington as French ambassador to London[1] after accusations that he sabotaged the negotiations in the Treaty of Rome led to a minor scandal between London and Paris. In July of 1904, the French people voted a Bonaparte out of office for the first time since the formation of the Republic. Charles Joseph Bonaparte was rejected by the people of France in favor of Leon Gambetta, after the events of the Treaty of Rome led to Bonaparte being perceived as wanting reconciliation with the British.
Gambetta's nationalist foreign policy, like Boulanger before him, was aimed to extend French influence over its colonies and protectorate nations and give France a leg up on the rivalry with Great Britain. Gambetta sent more military expeditions to Africa and Asia, while expanding the French coastal defense system on the English Channel. The militarization of France sparked a number of diplomatic incidents in the next years that would lead to the outbreak of the Great War. In 1905, the Japan turned its sights westward and declared war against Corea. As Japanese ships were shelling the port of Chilung[2], a French warship that had stationed there was hit in the crossfire. The French flotilla in Chilung began a counterattack on the Japanese fleet and sunk the Kirishima, a cruiser present at the battle. After the Japanese were repulsed from Chilung, France declared war on Japan in aid of Korea with the excuse that its warships had been fired upon. Both the Russians and the British took the side of Japan that the shelling was a mistake and that France deliberately attacked the Japanese fleet, and their ambassadors in Paris lodged vigorous complaints to Gambetta. The British began preparing to come to the defense of Japan and declare war on France later in 1905, but the incident was resolved before outright war broke out.
With tensions between the European powers now higher than ever with the Chilung Incident, it only took one more slight for France to fully commit itself to military aggression. This last straw broke in the oasis of Ghadames in Fezzan in March of 1906. An Italian surveying expedition to the interior of Tripolitania arrived at Ghadames, but soon encountered a French military expedition occupying an outpost in the village. As the Franco-Italian border in North Africa had never been specifically laid out after the Treaty of Rome, both forces claimed Ghadames as in their territory and a skirmish soon broke out. The French force defeated the Italians at Ghadames, and Gambetta used this opportunity to reassert France's claim on Tunis and Tripolitania. Gambetta proclaimed the Italian expedition to Ghadames was an incursion upon French territory and demanded concessions in return, but Italy refused to budge. France declared war on Italy, and the alliance dominoes began to fall. Italy activated the defensive pact of the Lega do Mediterraneo pulling Spain, Portugal, and Hungary into the war. Great Britain joined the war in assistance to Spain, while Germany entered on the side of the French. In the coming months, British diplomats in Moscow convinced the Tsar to enter the war against Germany and France as a counterpoint in both Europe and against Korea in the conflict in Asia.
[1] Waddington is the son of William Henry Waddington, and OTL French businessman and Prime Minister.
[2] Keelung, a port city in northern Taiwan.
Part One Hundred: You Do Realize, This Means War
The Great War Begins: After the Turkish War, relations between the European great powers became ever more strained. Italy and Spain became worried over France's expansionist stance in the region and the perceived dominance that France exerted in the sea. It took a unified diplomatic effort by Britain, Spain, and Italy to convince other nations to prevent France from gaining Tunis and Tripoli in the Treaty of Rome. In 1903, the nations of Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal formed the Lega del Mediterraneo, a unified military alliance between the lesser powers of the Mediterranean. After the dispute over the Adriatic city-states was settled, Hungary joined the alliance in 1904. While the alliance was confined to the Mediterranean, it would become critical in escalating the coming conflict into a world war.
Meanwhile, the tensions between the French and British governments were becoming increasingly difficult to resolve. After the diplomatic crises of the past decade, the French people were becoming increasingly agitated with the government and the booming economy was accompanied by a wave of national pride. The dismissal of Francois Richard Waddington as French ambassador to London[1] after accusations that he sabotaged the negotiations in the Treaty of Rome led to a minor scandal between London and Paris. In July of 1904, the French people voted a Bonaparte out of office for the first time since the formation of the Republic. Charles Joseph Bonaparte was rejected by the people of France in favor of Leon Gambetta, after the events of the Treaty of Rome led to Bonaparte being perceived as wanting reconciliation with the British.
Gambetta's nationalist foreign policy, like Boulanger before him, was aimed to extend French influence over its colonies and protectorate nations and give France a leg up on the rivalry with Great Britain. Gambetta sent more military expeditions to Africa and Asia, while expanding the French coastal defense system on the English Channel. The militarization of France sparked a number of diplomatic incidents in the next years that would lead to the outbreak of the Great War. In 1905, the Japan turned its sights westward and declared war against Corea. As Japanese ships were shelling the port of Chilung[2], a French warship that had stationed there was hit in the crossfire. The French flotilla in Chilung began a counterattack on the Japanese fleet and sunk the Kirishima, a cruiser present at the battle. After the Japanese were repulsed from Chilung, France declared war on Japan in aid of Korea with the excuse that its warships had been fired upon. Both the Russians and the British took the side of Japan that the shelling was a mistake and that France deliberately attacked the Japanese fleet, and their ambassadors in Paris lodged vigorous complaints to Gambetta. The British began preparing to come to the defense of Japan and declare war on France later in 1905, but the incident was resolved before outright war broke out.
With tensions between the European powers now higher than ever with the Chilung Incident, it only took one more slight for France to fully commit itself to military aggression. This last straw broke in the oasis of Ghadames in Fezzan in March of 1906. An Italian surveying expedition to the interior of Tripolitania arrived at Ghadames, but soon encountered a French military expedition occupying an outpost in the village. As the Franco-Italian border in North Africa had never been specifically laid out after the Treaty of Rome, both forces claimed Ghadames as in their territory and a skirmish soon broke out. The French force defeated the Italians at Ghadames, and Gambetta used this opportunity to reassert France's claim on Tunis and Tripolitania. Gambetta proclaimed the Italian expedition to Ghadames was an incursion upon French territory and demanded concessions in return, but Italy refused to budge. France declared war on Italy, and the alliance dominoes began to fall. Italy activated the defensive pact of the Lega do Mediterraneo pulling Spain, Portugal, and Hungary into the war. Great Britain joined the war in assistance to Spain, while Germany entered on the side of the French. In the coming months, British diplomats in Moscow convinced the Tsar to enter the war against Germany and France as a counterpoint in both Europe and against Korea in the conflict in Asia.
[1] Waddington is the son of William Henry Waddington, and OTL French businessman and Prime Minister.
[2] Keelung, a port city in northern Taiwan.
Excellent update!
Would Russia really join the British side though? It would seem to me that due to its isolationist nature ITTL, Russia would prefer to wait to see which side clearly looked like the victorious side before declaring war.
Besides, I was hoping to see Russian New Caledonia.
Would Russia really join the British side though? It would seem to me that due to its isolationist nature ITTL, Russia would prefer to wait to see which side clearly looked like the victorious side before declaring war.
Besides, I was hoping to see Russian New Caledonia.
I concur.
It would be more plausible if Russia only joined Britain and the others after they achieved some substantial victories against the Franco-German alliance and/or offered Russia considerable concessions.
Winston Smith
Banned
In 1906, war were declared. Jolly good show! Is it me, or does the Franco-German alliance kinda... outweigh the other-side, in terms of population, industrial power, etc?
Would Russia really join the British side though? It would seem to me that due to its isolationist nature ITTL, Russia would prefer to wait to see which side clearly looked like the victorious side before declaring war.
Besides, I was hoping to see Russian New Caledonia.
I almost want to agree, yet at the same time the pretense of a Franco-German alliance from the 1870s onwards is probably too reminiscent of the Napoleonic Wars for the Tsar's peace of mind. Thus it is likely that a British-Russian alliance in responce to a Franco-German offensive had been in negotiation for quite a while, especially after the Turkish War, despite Russia's relative neutrality so far.
Russia also has the Corean warm water ports to win here. So the alliance makes sense. Corea is going to have a tough time against Britain, Russia, Japan, and later California. Even if it is in the winning side of the game it will take a beating. Especially because, without Indochina, France has a looser foothold in the region than in OTL. Even if the US throws its weight into the Pacific it is a tough fight and I don't think China would come to its rescue, it probably has bigger internal issues to deal with right now.
Now that I think of it, it all seems set up for an early Pacific War. And there are more powers to consider than in OTL, mainly California and Corea. But also Russia who with Alyeska has a better foothold on the region (and I agree with Venusian if somehow Russia- perhaps after a coup/revolution- decides to play for the winning team, and ends up with a good chunk of New Caledonia, it would be awesome!)
What is also interesting is that in TTL, it is the nationalistic offender, France, who will likely be victorious.
Agreed. And awesome update Wilcox!
I recon the US and California won't enter until late in the game after some diplomatic catastrophe with Britain in the area. Will the war spread to South America by any chance?
Keep it up!!!
They do on the continent, but they are fighting two univasionable foes. It seems to me that unlike OTLs World War I, this Great War will involve a lot more or proxy fighting with minor powers.
Now that Russia, Greece and Italy are all in one camp. It is likely the Ottomans will place aside their differences with Egypt and both will join the alliance with France.
BTW Wilcox have you though of names for the ailing es? Somehow the Continental Alliance and the New Coalition make sense.
Well depends, sure France and Germany together have lot of resource and capability but at the same time they must fight on many fronts at the same time (basically death by papercut) :
France has the Italian and Spanish front plus the naval front of North France facing UK.
Germany faces Russia and Hungary and Italy
The mediterrean front will be interesting between the italian siege of Malta and fight on the Algeria/Tunisia-Lybia front
If Russia is joining Britain partially to oppose Korea in Asia, than how will China and Japan fall? The Japanese are sure to side with the British and Russians, but will want to gain the upper hand over Russia if at all possible. The Chinese, on the other hand, are in a much more tricky spot. Allying with Russia risks being made into a puppet (and losing a war with Korea), while opposing Russia and Japan is far too dangerous. Their best course is probably to try and stay neutral, but I don't see that happening.
Great update, wilcox!
Cheers,
Ganesha
Great update, wilcox!
Cheers,
Ganesha
As I said, even if Korea is on the winning side, it will take a beating. Assuming China stays neutral (why not every time it gets involved in foreign affairs things go bad, and they are likely not going well at the moment anyhow), Russia and Japan are probably both expecting good spoils from Korea. Russia wants a warm water port and Japan wants to be the main power in the Asian Pacific.
But I think the thing we are forgetting is that Korea and Japan are evenly matched in TTL- Korea might even have the upper hand. In TTL they both modernized about the same time, but Korea is larger than in OTL both territorially and in terms of population. And unlike Japan it recently fought a large war against China, and won. Japan hasn't had the equivalent of OTL's Russo-Japanese war to prove its weight and test its skills. Perhaps Japan has a better navy, which it used to colonize Hawaii, but Korea likely has a larger and better trained army, and a decent enough navy to protect Taiwan from Japanese -and probably British- incursions. Korea is likely much more prepared for this war as it has always been surrounded by enemies.
If Korea holds on for a couple of years - even if it looses Taiwan and the Japanese/Russian forces occupy a chunk of the north - Russia is likely to fall to revolution at some point soon and once the US enters and sends some aid - however small- to distract the Japanese, Korea might then gain the upper hand late in the game and will certainly have it during the negotiations when its allies may or may not* defend its interests. Japan on the other hand, even if it wins most of the battles will likely loose all the negotiations if its allies are defeated.
* I say may or may not, judging from OTL where the Allies were pretty keen on ignoring the interest of Japan, even when it was on the winning side of the war. Even if it wins, Korea might gain some small Russian territory, but it might have to accept the "sovereignty" of Formosa/Taiwan, which will likely now be under the influence of its new liberators [French or American].
Last edited:
I'm guessing that the US is going to get involved on the side of France and Germany based on what I remember from past chapters. California is supported by the British and I recall the chapter about California saying that it was annexed by the US during Teddy's presidency. This leads me to believe that the US will at least be against Britain, which would mean they are defacto allied to France and Germany.
Since it sounds like the US gains territory this either means that the Franco-German alliance wins as a whole, assuming this TL follows the "America will always win" effect that most of OTL has followed, or Britain sues for a separate peace with the US sometime during the war.
Since it sounds like the US gains territory this either means that the Franco-German alliance wins as a whole, assuming this TL follows the "America will always win" effect that most of OTL has followed, or Britain sues for a separate peace with the US sometime during the war.
Personally, I am hoping that while the United States manages to win its part of the war, France and Germany get bogged down and are forced into an unsatisfactory truce.
It is so rare that we see a successful Spain or Italy. Also, the Lega del Mediterraneo seems pretty cool. I want it to survive.
It is so rare that we see a successful Spain or Italy. Also, the Lega del Mediterraneo seems pretty cool. I want it to survive.
With Wilcox' permission I am posting some speculation on how South America has evolved so far, and how it can be dragged into the Great War. Hopefully this gets some discussion going:
"I am Parting from the notion that butterflies reached South America as a result of President Calhoun’s support of republican movements in the region. Two main initial changes can be observed: one, Rio Grandese gained independence from Brazil, and two - which was never mention but only seems logical - the Peru-Bolivia Confederation also received some American aid during the War of Confederation, however minimal.
Unlike The Rio Grandese Republic, the Peru-Bolivian Confederation did not survive. However upon its breakup South Peru decided to stay in federation with Bolivia. It was only the elites in Lima and North Peru - who had more to gain from trade with Chile and Colombia that opted to break away. Chile wasn’t fully defeated during the war but it didn’t come out victor as in OTL, thus it opted to shift its focus south - gain control of the straights - and west into the Pacific. This further complicates Pacific politics as we are adding Chile to the number of powers in the region California, Britain, Japan, Corea, and the US.
North Peru, simply referred to as Peru - the Confederation is commonly known Bolivia though it likely has a very long and lofty constitutional name - began focussing on maritime trade, as it was now too small for any other course. It also struck an alliance with Chile to contain Bolivia, in case some dictator ever tried to restore the Inca Empire. However, Bolivia - outmatched at sea - placed its focus inland, and expanded into the Chaco and Amazon with success. Thus explaining the huge-ass Bolivia of TTL. I am also guessing that the capital is neither Sucre, La Paz, or Cusco, but Tacna the capital of the Confederation in OTL, which lies practically on the Peru, Bolivia border and has likely grown, not just as the political capital but as an economic one since it would be Bolivia's main port as well.
On the other side of the Andes, the river Republics - Uruguay, Paraguay, and Rio-Grandese - evolved more-or-less together. Early on an alliance was likey formed to facilitate trade, and to avoid being swallowed by the larger powers - Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia - that surrounded them. An economic and military alliance soon evolved into a customs union, a trade union, and ultimately the political federation known as Mokuguay - like Bolivia I am guessing it has a loftier constitutional name - the Mesopotamia of the West. Their federation provoked the Platinean War, as the Argentinean administration feared a new power gaining control of the river trade. The Platinean war did not end up well for Argentina, resulting in the independence of Tucuman, which was rapidly brought into Bolivia’s economic influence.
In the last decades of the 19th Bolivia and Mokuguay both became formidable regional powers. With good political relations, both federations facilitated trade - liking their roads and tracks from the Rivers to the Andes to the Pacific - and secured a military alliance dragging Tucuman along. Argentina on the other hand had been humiliated, and weakened beyond near repair. In the aftermath, it signed a treaty with Chile establishing the border on the Andes’ drainage basins - but unlike OTL were the southern border was evenly split, Chile took the winning bite thus gaining full control of the Straights and access to its claims of the Falkland Islands.
Colombia and Venezuela probably re-united after the successful example of Mokuguay and Bolivia. It was also likely a result of British incursions into Venezuela. Similarly the Mesoamerican Federation was formed after the US dealings in Costa Rica. Meanwhile Brazil remains in isolation, as the only power with legal slavery. By now the aging (60+) Emperor Alfonso - I am guessing Pedro II died already since he’d be 80+ by now - is trying to figure out a way to end slavery without rocking the boat. Unfortunately, for Brazil, the boat was rocked at the outbreak of the Great War.
If the war reaches South America, you have two systems of alliances already in place: one centered in Chile with Peru, Argentina (and likely Ecuador) as its allies, and one forged between Bolivia, Mokuguay and Tucuman. CP&A have the advantage at sea, and likely have better trained officers, and perhaps better tech while BM&T have the advantage on land, as well as greater resources and manpower.
Colombia and Brazil are wild cards, but I reckon Colombia will throw its weight with Bolivia and Mokuguay, while Brazil will do its best to remain neutral.
These are only the major conflicts and movements. Smaller conflicts, crisis, border adjustments, etc. likely happened. I’m only suggesting what were likely the major divergences from OTL: a different outcome to the Confederation War, the events that led to and the result of the Platinean War, and the lack of a Pacific War until now, with the likelihood the Brazil has stayed out of the arms race. Furthermore it is simply speculation Wilcox can take his TL in any direction he please, but this makes sense to me.
"I am Parting from the notion that butterflies reached South America as a result of President Calhoun’s support of republican movements in the region. Two main initial changes can be observed: one, Rio Grandese gained independence from Brazil, and two - which was never mention but only seems logical - the Peru-Bolivia Confederation also received some American aid during the War of Confederation, however minimal.
Unlike The Rio Grandese Republic, the Peru-Bolivian Confederation did not survive. However upon its breakup South Peru decided to stay in federation with Bolivia. It was only the elites in Lima and North Peru - who had more to gain from trade with Chile and Colombia that opted to break away. Chile wasn’t fully defeated during the war but it didn’t come out victor as in OTL, thus it opted to shift its focus south - gain control of the straights - and west into the Pacific. This further complicates Pacific politics as we are adding Chile to the number of powers in the region California, Britain, Japan, Corea, and the US.
North Peru, simply referred to as Peru - the Confederation is commonly known Bolivia though it likely has a very long and lofty constitutional name - began focussing on maritime trade, as it was now too small for any other course. It also struck an alliance with Chile to contain Bolivia, in case some dictator ever tried to restore the Inca Empire. However, Bolivia - outmatched at sea - placed its focus inland, and expanded into the Chaco and Amazon with success. Thus explaining the huge-ass Bolivia of TTL. I am also guessing that the capital is neither Sucre, La Paz, or Cusco, but Tacna the capital of the Confederation in OTL, which lies practically on the Peru, Bolivia border and has likely grown, not just as the political capital but as an economic one since it would be Bolivia's main port as well.
On the other side of the Andes, the river Republics - Uruguay, Paraguay, and Rio-Grandese - evolved more-or-less together. Early on an alliance was likey formed to facilitate trade, and to avoid being swallowed by the larger powers - Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia - that surrounded them. An economic and military alliance soon evolved into a customs union, a trade union, and ultimately the political federation known as Mokuguay - like Bolivia I am guessing it has a loftier constitutional name - the Mesopotamia of the West. Their federation provoked the Platinean War, as the Argentinean administration feared a new power gaining control of the river trade. The Platinean war did not end up well for Argentina, resulting in the independence of Tucuman, which was rapidly brought into Bolivia’s economic influence.
In the last decades of the 19th Bolivia and Mokuguay both became formidable regional powers. With good political relations, both federations facilitated trade - liking their roads and tracks from the Rivers to the Andes to the Pacific - and secured a military alliance dragging Tucuman along. Argentina on the other hand had been humiliated, and weakened beyond near repair. In the aftermath, it signed a treaty with Chile establishing the border on the Andes’ drainage basins - but unlike OTL were the southern border was evenly split, Chile took the winning bite thus gaining full control of the Straights and access to its claims of the Falkland Islands.
Colombia and Venezuela probably re-united after the successful example of Mokuguay and Bolivia. It was also likely a result of British incursions into Venezuela. Similarly the Mesoamerican Federation was formed after the US dealings in Costa Rica. Meanwhile Brazil remains in isolation, as the only power with legal slavery. By now the aging (60+) Emperor Alfonso - I am guessing Pedro II died already since he’d be 80+ by now - is trying to figure out a way to end slavery without rocking the boat. Unfortunately, for Brazil, the boat was rocked at the outbreak of the Great War.
If the war reaches South America, you have two systems of alliances already in place: one centered in Chile with Peru, Argentina (and likely Ecuador) as its allies, and one forged between Bolivia, Mokuguay and Tucuman. CP&A have the advantage at sea, and likely have better trained officers, and perhaps better tech while BM&T have the advantage on land, as well as greater resources and manpower.
Colombia and Brazil are wild cards, but I reckon Colombia will throw its weight with Bolivia and Mokuguay, while Brazil will do its best to remain neutral.
These are only the major conflicts and movements. Smaller conflicts, crisis, border adjustments, etc. likely happened. I’m only suggesting what were likely the major divergences from OTL: a different outcome to the Confederation War, the events that led to and the result of the Platinean War, and the lack of a Pacific War until now, with the likelihood the Brazil has stayed out of the arms race. Furthermore it is simply speculation Wilcox can take his TL in any direction he please, but this makes sense to me.