Unintentional Counterfactual AHC: Spanish-Polish Colonial Struggle

[DanMcCollum]

So, what is an "Unintentional Counterfactual AHC"?

Glad you asked, mysterious reader? Have you ever come upon a butchering of history in your life, so preposterous, that you think it would make a great AHC? Maybe it was one of your student's papers, or a typo in a news story. Well, a Unintentional Counterfactual AHC is just that. A challenge given to the board stemming from just such a mistake.

So, you want us to come up with an way in which Spain and Poland are competing for colonies?

Well, sort of. Let me explain:

I was reading an exam recently where someone claimed that Spain and Poland were competing for colonies in India - a conflict where the Pope had to intervene to bring about peace.

Obviously the writer meant to say 'Portugal' instead of Poland. But it got the brain juices flowing.

So, your challenge is to create a situation where Poland and Spain are both trying to gain colonies in India sometime during, or after, the 16th century. How you do this, is completely up to you. Extra points if the Pope is forced to intercede!

Good luck!

 

[BellaGerant]

Hmm, perhaps if the Vasa retain control of both Sweden and Poland. You avoid the Deluge and gets Poland closer to a window to the open ocean. Have Swedoland jump on the colonial race bandwagon (like OTL Sweden did during its heyday) and round Africa, end up in India (like Denmark).

Meanwhile, the Mughals begin collapsing faster than OTL due to more disastrous wars and more religious intolerance, leaving a power vacuum ripe for the taking.

Have the Spanish and Poles ask the Pope to divide India between them a la Treaty of Tordesillas (which will obviously be ignored by the Protestants and France) for the sake of peace.

Otherwise? Poland's a bit far from the ocean (focus was never really on naval affairs, no winged hussars on the high seas, I'm afraid) and, while it could colonize like Kurland, can it really compete with Spain, an established colonial and naval power? Land routes aren't an option either, since that'd involve carved a path through Central Asia/Asia Minor and then Persia.

 

[Captain Jack]

Well, in the first half of the 1600's the Duchy of Courland was relatively active in colonial ventures. They established a number of posts in the Caribbean, temporarily holding Tobago, and had a few short-lived trading posts/forts in Gambia. Doesn't seem like much of a stretch for the Duchy to expand its efforts to India, and there are plenty of places where they could establish themselves without being a threat to any of the real powers in the region. Just have Courland set up a factory in one or more of the smaller sites that went to the Dutch/Portugese or English IOTL at around the same time.

Spain is harder, I think since to my knowledge they never held any possessions in Inida. The best route would seem to be Spain recieving one of the Portuguese territories in India, perhaps as part of a dowry, similar to how England recieved Bombay?

Anyway, all you then need is for the two locations to be close enough that the Courlanders and spaniards get into a conflict over control of the local region/state/commercial access. Hell, even a series of misteps and misjudgemnts by both local commanders can push things into actual conflict. And since Courland is a vassal of Poland-Lithuania, the king could step in back-up his vassal- or step in to prevent conflict by mediating a resolution between Courland and Spain. And since the Polish King isn't exactly a neutral mediator in the dispute they agree to refer it to the Pope.

There you go, that's my thoughts on how to create this situation.

 

[ben0628]

Have the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth conquer Russia and colonize Siberia while somehow screwing GB so that their colonies aren't as successful.

Polithussia then competes with Spain over Pacific Colonies and Northwest North America (Alaska, BC, California).

 

[Arkenfolm]

The best is Poland-Lithuania (stronger and more resilient than OTL) gets more active in naval affairs, and keeps control of Tobago, which ITTL is colonised directly by the Commonwealth instead of their vassal Courland. This gets Poland-Lithuania a foothold in the caribbean. In order to defend Tobago, they capture Trinidad with the help of privateers sometime in the 17th century. From there, Spain and the PLC fight over the islands until the decline of Spanish power. It goes without saying that the PLC keeps strong.

Later on, the PLC can colonise Gabon in a Scramble for Africa and fight with Spain over the border of Equatorial Guinea, but that's less likely to be a shooting war unless a major European war with the PLC and Spain on opposite sides.

 

[JonasResende]

Might be a bit late, but why not have Wladyslaw IV's naval ambitions succeed? OTL they didn't and got dismantled soon after they were born. But if he can somehow find a way to make it a reality, then maybe Poland can get a toe in the colonial game. Of course, it might be difficult, what with Sound Dues and all that, but that didn't stop Sweden from having a colonial empire in America and Africa.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Spain is harder, I think since to my knowledge they never held any possessions in Inida. The best route would seem to be Spain recieving one of the Portuguese territories in India, perhaps as part of a dowry, similar to how England recieved Bombay?

All you need is for the Spanish Habsburgs to hold on to Portugal, not have anyone else *cough*Dutch*cough* swipe its colonies, and have Portugal-Castile-Aragon-Navarre unify as a single united Spain.

 

[Captain Jack]

All you need is for the Spanish Habsburgs to hold on to Portugal, not have anyone else *cough*Dutch*cough* swipe its colonies, and have Portugal-Castile-Aragon-Navarre unify as a single united Spain.

Quite true. That just seemed a bit drastic of a change for the challenege. Also, if Spain has control of Portugal's Indian territories it seems unlikely they'd need to get the Pope involved in mediating the dispute. They could either crush the Courland/Polish effort, or not care because they have bigger fish to fry.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Quite true. That just seemed a bit drastic of a change for the challenege. Also, if Spain has control of Portugal's Indian territories it seems unlikely they'd need to get the Pope involved in mediating the dispute. They could either crush the Courland/Polish effort, or not care because they have bigger fish to fry.

I suppose you're right. Perhaps "Spain" is Portugal-Leon-Castile, whilst Aragon and Navarre are separate. Meanwhile a much stronger and more stable Poland has gone "I can haz colonies".

 

[Captain Jack]

I suppose you're right. Perhaps "Spain" is Portugal-Leon-Castile, whilst Aragon and Navarre are separate. Meanwhile a much stronger and more stable Poland has gone "I can haz colonies".

That would be an interesting scenario. Iberia divided not between hegemonic Spain and little Portugal hugging the coast, but split in two between an Atlantic and a Mediterranean kingdom. The "Spain" of Portugal-Leon-Castille goes the maritime route and takes most of Spain and Portugal's OTL colonies while the altAragon rules what IOTL was Spain's Mediterranean possessions. As for the more powerful Poland, how about maintaining the 1440 Jagiellonian union of Poland and Hungary while still merging Poland and Lithuania. Best would probably be to keep and maintain one of the earlier Poland-Lithuania personal unions to avoid the on-again-off-again aspect. That and stopping the Jagiellonians from dying out. That would give us a truly massive state in Poland-Lithuania-Hungary that could potentially be strong enough to hold the Ottomans off in the Balkans (as Hungary tried and failed to do) and to prevent the Muscovite consolidation of the Russian principalities. And this massive Central European power might decide it wants in on the colonies game for both prestige and profit. How's that?

I think my earlier scenario is the most realistic way to achieve the challenge, but this one is certainly more fun.

 

[Analytical Engine]

@Captain Jack Both sound great.

 

[Behemoth]

Might be a bit late, but why not have Wladyslaw IV's naval ambitions succeed? OTL they didn't and got dismantled soon after they were born. But if he can somehow find a way to make it a reality, then maybe Poland can get a toe in the colonial game. Of course, it might be difficult, what with Sound Dues and all that, but that didn't stop Sweden from having a colonial empire in America and Africa.

The Danes ended up destroying a large portion of the fleet in 1637 and the remaining ships were sold off in the 1640's. Also, IIRC, the szlachta did not necessarily support the king's plans for the fleet due to the high costs.

If you want to help the PLC in regards to their navy, there are two things that I can think of that could help. Firstly, have them continue to expand after the battle of Oliwa in 1627. Secondly, have the alliance with the Habsburgs in 1629 go differently by having the PLC retain control over their fleet.

 

[marcinL]

...

That would be an interesting scenario. Iberia divided not between hegemonic Spain and little Portugal hugging the coast, but split in two between an Atlantic and a Mediterranean kingdom. The "Spain" of Portugal-Leon-Castille goes the maritime route and takes most of Spain and Portugal's OTL colonies while the altAragon rules what IOTL was Spain's Mediterranean possessions. As for the more powerful Poland, how about maintaining the 1440 Jagiellonian union of Poland and Hungary while still merging Poland and Lithuania. Best would probably be to keep and maintain one of the earlier Poland-Lithuania personal unions to avoid the on-again-off-again aspect. That and stopping the Jagiellonians from dying out. That would give us a truly massive state in Poland-Lithuania-Hungary that could potentially be strong enough to hold the Ottomans off in the Balkans (as Hungary tried and failed to do) and to prevent the Muscovite consolidation of the Russian principalities. And this massive Central European power might decide it wants in on the colonies game for both prestige and profit. How's that?

I think my earlier scenario is the most realistic way to achieve the challenge, but this one is certainly more fun.

Maybe the Jagiellon Empire and AltAragon dismantle the Ottomans and then start quarreling over the spoils? (though it would be less colonial and more standart competition between two expanding empires)