Unified Iberian Peninsula

Lusitania

Donor
And either Madrid or Toledo act as the natural center of the Iberian Peninsula anyway. However, we could see some sort of devolution over time similar to how Scotland has its own parliament?
But a union will not last forever. While no guarantees of Napoleon appearing (more likely not) someone else will appear got the ideas of the late 18th and 19th century will surface. The invasion of Iberian Peninsula will ignite more of the same divisions and a united Iberian peninsula will have many groups all wishing to be independent be they basque, Catalonia and Portuguese. If a single country is not created and based on what Spain achieved in Italy and Iberian peninsula I do not give it till middle of 29th century before peninsula splinters. It’s not like they even speak same language.
 
But a union will not last forever. While no guarantees of Napoleon appearing (more likely not) someone else will appear got the ideas of the late 18th and 19th century will surface. The invasion of Iberian Peninsula will ignite more of the same divisions and a united Iberian peninsula will have many groups all wishing to be independent be they basque, Catalonia and Portuguese. If a single country is not created and based on what Spain achieved in Italy and Iberian peninsula I do not give it till middle of 29th century before peninsula splinters. It’s not like they even speak same language.
The majority of countries are made of many distinct groups and alot of them are doing pretty well, I doubt a regional identity on its own would cause insurrection, especially if that union is beneficial to all parties, ITTL it would be because Spain would have alot capital to invest in self-improvement instead of pissing it all away in Germany, with a pinch of trust in the government instead of the shit show we got, Napoleons invasion may inspire a pan-iberian nationalism that could last into the ages, I think given the proper conditions external pressure could make the union an ever lasting one.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The majority of countries are made of many distinct groups and alot of them are doing pretty well, I doubt a regional identity on its own would cause insurrection, especially if that union is beneficial to all parties, ITTL it would be because Spain would have alot capital to invest in self-improvement instead of pissing it all away in Germany, with a pinch of trust in the government instead of the shit show we got, Napoleons invasion may inspire a pan-iberian nationalism that could last into the ages, I think given the proper conditions external pressure could make the union an ever lasting one.
Spain today is teetering on separation in more than one region. Catalonia just the only one in the news.

As for the possibility of rebellion the union would of introduced a large group into the family of Spain which already had Catalonia being discriminated by Castile who were afraid to share its colonial riches. So how will the union work? If Spain keeps itself out of European affairs it can invest its $ but the Spanish nobility screwed the pooch iOTL and no reason it not do same with the union. Plus you could see the regions gang up on Castile so what it do, discriminate against them? So you see it more like than not the union not survive the 19th century.
 
Granada lacks separatists. Leon lacks separatists.

As long as whoever takes over unifies government not allowing stuff like the cortez of aragon then separatism won't be as popular.

Having a single iberian language etc, look at Germany
 
And either Madrid or Toledo act as the natural center of the Iberian Peninsula anyway. However, we could see some sort of devolution over time similar to how Scotland has its own parliament?

In order for devolution to happen, centralization to abolish the numerous Aragonese parliaments would have to happen first. If Portugal is also thrown into this mix, then centralization is in no way guaranteed--you may see an HRE-analogue instead.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Granada lacks separatists. Leon lacks separatists.

As long as whoever takes over unifies government not allowing stuff like the cortez of aragon then separatism won't be as popular.

Having a single iberian language etc, look at Germany
Okay we currently have 3 separate languages at least in Spain how will adding Portuguese into the mix lead to a unified language? If Spain not able to do so without Portuguese how will it accomplish this by making it harder?
 
I'd go back to Ferdinand and Isabella, have the Portuguese win that war of succession and Castille and Portugal end up in union. Later they inherit and/or conquer Aragon and Navarre but by that point the country is firmly oriented towards the Atlantic, Castillan manpower put to use expanding the Portuguese empire much as it was used to expand the Aragonese and Austrian empires OTL.
 
I'd go back to Ferdinand and Isabella, have the Portuguese win that war of succession and Castille and Portugal end up in union. Later they inherit and/or conquer Aragon and Navarre but by that point the country is firmly oriented towards the Atlantic, Castillan manpower put to use expanding the Portuguese empire much as it was used to expand the Aragonese and Austrian empires OTL.
I will go with a similar POD but a little later: Isabella of Castile and Aragon marry Manuel I of Portugal as OTL, survive instead of dying in chilbirth and give him more children. Miguel also survive until adulthood, marry and have children of his own and after Ferdinand and Isabella's deaths Manuel I and Isabella II will rule together on a kingdom of Spain composed by Portugal, Castile and Aragon.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'd go back to Ferdinand and Isabella, have the Portuguese win that war of succession and Castille and Portugal end up in union. Later they inherit and/or conquer Aragon and Navarre but by that point the country is firmly oriented towards the Atlantic, Castillan manpower put to use expanding the Portuguese empire much as it was used to expand the Aragonese and Austrian empires OTL.
Anytime you bring in Italy and Austria then you doom union. The European quagmire resulted in huge amount of money and resources being spent to fight other peoples war. As indicated before the failure of Union is in great part due to its Austrian problems. Get rid all inheritance of Hapsburg realm
 
Okay we currently have 3 separate languages at least in Spain how will adding Portuguese into the mix lead to a unified language? If Spain not able to do so without Portuguese how will it accomplish this by making it harder?
A Spain that keeps Portugal or vice versa will have more focus on iberian
 

Lusitania

Donor
I will go with a similar POD but a little later: Isabella of Castile and Aragon marry Manuel I of Portugal as OTL, survive instead of dying in chilbirth and give him more children. Miguel also survive until adulthood, marry and have children of his own and after Ferdinand and Isabella's deaths Manuel I and Isabella II will rule together on a kingdom of Spain composed by Portugal, Castile and Aragon.
Yes a real union supported by Portuguese nobles has best chance of surviving. Both the 1380s and 1580s Portuguese succession wars with Castile/Spain had strong opposition in Portugal and its nobility. In 1380s the Castilians were defeated unfortunately in 1580s it was the Portuguese who lost. So a genuine union of both houses could provide a stable union and melding into single country. Which with a POD so early would of butterfly way the Habsburg problems although could of brought their own problems.
 

Lusitania

Donor
A Spain that keeps Portugal or vice versa will have more focus on iberian
Yes but we are not talking about political but in culture and language.

The union of Portugal with Spain did not focus Spanish king on the Iberian peninsula from 1580-1640. So why would the failure of Portugal from seceding from Union make Spain more focuses? Portugal would of suffered like Aragon did and loose even more of its identity and independence. Resentment would of continued or grown towards Madrid since till 1640 Portugal was its own country not part of Spain. Would Spain try to integrate Portugal into Spain?

Which bring me to a question that been bugging me for awhile. The Union of Portugal and Spain was not the same as the union of Castile and Aragon into single country. Portugal was a separate country, we just shared the same king. So how would the failure of 1640 rebellion change that?
 
Yes a real union supported by Portuguese nobles has best chance of surviving. Both the 1380s and 1580s Portuguese succession wars with Castile/Spain had strong opposition in Portugal and its nobility. In 1380s the Castilians were defeated unfortunately in 1580s it was the Portuguese who lost. So a genuine union of both houses could provide a stable union and melding into single country. Which with a POD so early would of butterfly way the Habsburg problems although could of brought their own problems.
Well here the Habsburg would never rule Spain or Portugal as Isabella II's survival and succession would prevent that (unless the extinction of the portuguese ruling house and/or another wedding of an Habsburg to an heiress of Spain)
 

Lusitania

Donor
Well here the Habsburg would never rule Spain or Portugal as Isabella II's survival and succession would prevent that (unless the extinction of the portuguese ruling house and/or another wedding of an Habsburg to an heiress of Spain)

Yes as I indicated a POD that early would of changed European politics. Which brought me to my other question. Which POD had best chance of succeeding?
1) Portugal never splits from Leon
2) Portugal looses war of successionnin 1380
3) union of Portugal/Spain into single country as result of surviving heir to both thrones
4) failure of 1640 rebellion
5) other _______________


Edit: for the original thread question was would Spain succeed in integrating Portugal into Spain following failure of 1640 revolt. So my answer to that is no too late. They might of held it for another decades or century but Spain reaction to Portuguese revolt would of increased Portuguese resentment and opposition to Spain
 
Spain today is teetering on separation in more than one region. Catalonia just the only one in the news.

As for the possibility of rebellion the union would of introduced a large group into the family of Spain which already had Catalonia being discriminated by Castile who were afraid to share its colonial riches. So how will the union work? If Spain keeps itself out of European affairs it can invest its $ but the Spanish nobility screwed the pooch iOTL and no reason it not do same with the union. Plus you could see the regions gang up on Castile so what it do, discriminate against them? So you see it more like than not the union not survive the 19th century.
Doesn't a lot of that come down to a lack of Administrative reform in the 17th and 18th centuries? Spain never got it's Richelieu character to reform it's Bureaucracy to a more unified system.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Doesn't a lot of that come down to a lack of Administrative reform in the 17th and 18th centuries? Spain never got it's Richelieu character to reform it's Bureaucracy to a more unified system.
Bureaucracy reforms are only part of the issues, culturally and language were also the factors. Plus the 1580 Union was not a unification of Spain and Portugal into one unified country. It was two countries ruled by single king. sperate cortes, judicial and military including separate colonies. Be equivalent of both Scottish and English colonies existing in the UK. Any attempt to unify the two countries into a single country would of been met by resistance and even rebellion.
 
Modern Catalan separatism can't really be used as a frame of reference for similar movements within an ATL Iberian Union because the growth of said separatism has almost everything to do with the installment of the Bourbons and the passage of their Nueva Planta decrees, wherein they essentially tried to transplant French-style centralization by wiping out the old liberties of the Crown of Aragon. The Habsburg Monarchy - for all its flaws - was more or less respectful of the many different law codes and languages that divided its Iberian possessions, and only seriously considered steps to break these divisions down when they were in a moment of extreme crisis (e.g. Olivares' Union de Armas). The many separatist movements in the Spain we see today can easily be lessened or even removed entirely had the events of the mid 17th to early 18th century not come to pass.
 
That being said, if you want a united Iberia to work, then the 1580 union isn't a very good starting point to begin with. By 1580 the national consciousness and overall trajectories of Spain and Portugal had already been clearly defined - the War of the Castilian Succession, the Treaty of Alcáçovas, and the Treaty of Tordesillas had all neatly delineated the long term interests of the Avis realm of Portugal and the Trastámara realm of Castile-Aragon. The growing feelings of cultural and national estrangement between these two kingdoms would be further accentuated by their individual points of pride: the conquest of Mexico and Peru or the discovery of India and China were considered Castilian or Portuguese accomplishments, respectively, not Iberian or Spanish ones. Another factor was the Habsburg inheritance of Castile-Aragon - the Habsburgs were, after all, a dynasty of foreign extraction that had not taken part in the Reconquista, the defining Iberian cultural experience - and it took a few generations for even the Castilians and Aragonese to begin to consider their Habsburg rulers as truly Spanish. By 1580, the Castilian-Portuguese rivalry is already cemented, with the two no longer viewing each other merely as fellow Iberians, but as untrustworthy foreigners with adverse designs on one another. One can see this rivalry play out with all its disastrous effects in the East Indies, where the Castilians and Portuguese were exceedingly reluctant to offer each other assistance, resulting in the Dutch essentially making off with the greater part of the Portuguese maritime empire.

A lasting and relatively stable Iberian Union therefore needs a few things:

1 - A native dynasty: No entanglement in expensive and futile European affairs, more focus on the wants and needs of Iberians. The best scenario would possibly be an Avis ascendancy, so that the Portuguese fears of Castilian dominance are at least offset (for a while) by having their own monarch in charge.

2 - An earlier union: Preferably before the Age of Discovery really kicks off, so that the conquest of the Americas or discovery of the Far East are treated more as "Look what we Castilians/Portuguese have done for Spain" and not so much as "Look what we've done for Spain/Portugal"

3 - A common cause: The experiences of the Reconquista have already done a good job of developing feelings of kinship amongst the Christian Iberians, so continuing this trend (with North Africa or the Ottomans as the target/enemy) will at least maintain a sense of camaraderie through shared struggle. It's also important that the members of the Iberian Union want to remain united, either out of unwillingness to terminate useful relationships or out of fear at the thought of going it alone (the Portuguese profiting from Castilian aid in the East Indies while the Castilians and Aragonese profit from Portuguese rearguard action against the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean, for example).

4 - Ties of blood: This was an idea of the Count-Duke of Olivares, being the encouragement of intermarriage between the different Iberian kingdoms and, more importantly, between their nobles. A powerful aristocratic family with holdings in two or more of the Iberian kingdoms is not going to want to see those kingdoms severed.

5 - A federal approach to governance. Let the Castilians be Castilian, the Portuguese be Portuguese, the Catalans be Catalan, the Basques be Basque, etc. Having a shared language and legal system is great, but it would be much more prudent to have such things develop more organically than to try to enforce them through a massive Bourbon-esque overhaul which injudiciously favors a specific group of people. Don't try to force Castilians or Portuguese into one another's colonies, allow them instead to request one another's presence once they realize they need each other's resources (the Portuguese would benefit from Castilian manpower and the Castilians would benefit from the assistance of the Portuguese navy).
 
That being said, if you want a united Iberia to work, then the 1580 union isn't a very good starting point to begin with. By 1580 the national consciousness and overall trajectories of Spain and Portugal had already been clearly defined - the War of the Castilian Succession, the Treaty of Alcáçovas, and the Treaty of Tordesillas had all neatly delineated the long term interests of the Avis realm of Portugal and the Trastámara realm of Castile-Aragon. The growing feelings of cultural and national estrangement between these two kingdoms would be further accentuated by their individual points of pride: the conquest of Mexico and Peru or the discovery of India and China were considered Castilian or Portuguese accomplishments, respectively, not Iberian or Spanish ones. Another factor was the Habsburg inheritance of Castile-Aragon - the Habsburgs were, after all, a dynasty of foreign extraction that had not taken part in the Reconquista, the defining Iberian cultural experience - and it took a few generations for even the Castilians and Aragonese to begin to consider their Habsburg rulers as truly Spanish. By 1580, the Castilian-Portuguese rivalry is already cemented, with the two no longer viewing each other merely as fellow Iberians, but as untrustworthy foreigners with adverse designs on one another. One can see this rivalry play out with all its disastrous effects in the East Indies, where the Castilians and Portuguese were exceedingly reluctant to offer each other assistance, resulting in the Dutch essentially making off with the greater part of the Portuguese maritime empire.

A lasting and relatively stable Iberian Union therefore needs a few things:

1 - A native dynasty: No entanglement in expensive and futile European affairs, more focus on the wants and needs of Iberians. The best scenario would possibly be an Avis ascendancy, so that the Portuguese fears of Castilian dominance are at least offset (for a while) by having their own monarch in charge.

2 - An earlier union: Preferably before the Age of Discovery really kicks off, so that the conquest of the Americas or discovery of the Far East are treated more as "Look what we Castilians/Portuguese have done for Spain" and not so much as "Look what we've done for Spain/Portugal"

3 - A common cause: The experiences of the Reconquista have already done a good job of developing feelings of kinship amongst the Christian Iberians, so continuing this trend (with North Africa or the Ottomans as the target/enemy) will at least maintain a sense of camaraderie through shared struggle. It's also important that the members of the Iberian Union want to remain united, either out of unwillingness to terminate useful relationships or out of fear at the thought of going it alone (the Portuguese profiting from Castilian aid in the East Indies while the Castilians and Aragonese profit from Portuguese rearguard action against the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean, for example).

4 - Ties of blood: This was an idea of the Count-Duke of Olivares, being the encouragement of intermarriage between the different Iberian kingdoms and, more importantly, between their nobles. A powerful aristocratic family with holdings in two or more of the Iberian kingdoms is not going to want to see those kingdoms severed.

5 - A federal approach to governance. Let the Castilians be Castilian, the Portuguese be Portuguese, the Catalans be Catalan, the Basques be Basque, etc. Having a shared language and legal system is great, but it would be much more prudent to have such things develop more organically than to try to enforce them through a massive Bourbon-esque overhaul which injudiciously favors a specific group of people. Don't try to force Castilians or Portuguese into one another's colonies, allow them instead to request one another's presence once they realize they need each other's resources (the Portuguese would benefit from Castilian manpower and the Castilians would benefit from the assistance of the Portuguese navy).
Manuel and Isabella in my opinion are our best bet for realizing that, next do them a survival of Maria Manuela (and her and Felipe having more children) or Don Carlos, Prince of Asturias has heirs (but here you still have Charles V plus Milan and Burgundy)
 

Lusitania

Donor
Manuel and Isabella in my opinion are our best bet for realizing that, next do them a survival of Maria Manuela (and her and Felipe having more children) or Don Carlos, Prince of Asturias has heirs (but here you still have Charles V plus Milan and Burgundy)
Yes but I think that has been written about in few TL. The purpose of this thread unfortunetly was the 1580 union which as indicated by others was already too late and the Spanish royalty already hijacked by the Habsburg.
 
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