Thatcher is not going to hold a referendum. It's just totally out of character. There are literally dozens of Thatcher quotes about referendums, and she is against them in every single one. She described them as undemocratic, an abrogation of duty.
My interpretation would be that she'd believe that the very act of holding a referendum would be essentially marking the end of Parliamentary sovereignty. Whichever way the referendum turned out, Parliament would be the loser.
You've given her something like a 30 seat majority. A three-line whip and making it crystal clear to the Conservative MPs that voting with their conscience means they lose the whip if their conscience differs from hers, pressure on the Euro-Skeptic Labour members, the disunity among the opposition (for example, Benn was against the EU, and would probably at worst abstain). The numbers suggest that with sufficient bullying, there is no need for a referendum.
My interpretation would be that she'd believe that the very act of holding a referendum would be essentially marking the end of Parliamentary sovereignty. Whichever way the referendum turned out, Parliament would be the loser.
You've given her something like a 30 seat majority. A three-line whip and making it crystal clear to the Conservative MPs that voting with their conscience means they lose the whip if their conscience differs from hers, pressure on the Euro-Skeptic Labour members, the disunity among the opposition (for example, Benn was against the EU, and would probably at worst abstain). The numbers suggest that with sufficient bullying, there is no need for a referendum.