I like this as a possible POD. Clinton's Chief of Staff, Betsy Wright, also played a role in him deciding at the last minute not to run, and directly pointed to some of his Paula Jones type personal baggage that could came out if he ran. If you move Clinton up 4 years, it dramatically changes our views of Iran Contra, and if Iraq invades Kuwait on schedule, it would be very interesting to see what it does for perceptions of Democratic foreign policy if Clinton is seen as decisively pushing Iraq out.