Happy New Year, everbody--a long update after a long wait (Edit: trimmed a little bit).
March 16, 1940
"I'm telling you, Mr. President, if we stay neutral now we're risking our relations with practically all of Europe west of the Rhine. What George [1] says about looking after our own industry is true, but how much good will our factories and seaports be if no one wants to trade with us? It won't do any good to the tire industry if the Dutch East Indies fall to the Japs?" Fiorello LaGuardia hoped his position as Secretary of Commerce would add weight to his advice on the well-being of American industry.
Norman Mattoon Thomas, 33rd President of the United States, sighed thoughtfully at his grand desk, leaning his elbows on the great slab of polished oak as he rubbed his temples, staring through closed eyes at the dilemma he faced. In his own opinion, the decision was clear: condemn countless Americans to bloody death and add to the death toll of an already-oversized war, or continue to promote peaceful and cooperative socialism, and turn America's vast industrial capability toward the betterment, rather than the murder, of its people. He barely understood how it could be much more complex than that.
And then there was reelection to consider. In just three years in office, Thomas had already accomplished so much to lift the American people out of the hole they'd been shoved into: The National Labor Corps had put over a million Americans to work, clearing forests and constructing roads and bridges; unemployment seemed prepared to fall below 20% for the first time in a decade. Already the economy was showing signs of pickup; reports from the Department of Commerce showed that the GDP had grown by no less than two billion dollars since the start of his presidency. [2] Schools were being built by the hundred and children from Orlando to Olympia were getting a good, socialist education. But most proudly of all, the labor unions had been elevated to heights that would make Nye Bevan jealous. The same country whose leadership had sat back and watched as generations of striking workers were bullied, beaten and starved into submission--that country had now passed the Labor Empowerment Act, turning thousands of labor unions into federally-chartered representatives of the state. Never again could the great titans of commerce and industry destroy the economy through short-sighted and careless business practices, then count on a corrupt government to protect them from consequence: treason against the worker was now treason against America. Opponents had claimed the Act was just a ploy to expand the power of the Socialist Party; to the Party's rapidly-expanding radical wing, it was exactly that, but to Thomas and his own clique of moderate allies, it truly was a leap forward in the cause of the working class.
But there was still so much left to be done, and to bring the nation to war would risk the lasting future of the reforms he'd put into place. The Socialists were pacifists, and they'd be hard-pressed to renominate a warmonger for a second term--and Thomas needed a second term. It wasn't that he wanted to keep this job for its own sake--in fact, he rather hated it, with the constant stress, near-impossible decisions to make, and endless criticism from all sides of the political aisle. But he knew he needed to keep it if he was to ensure that the socialist program could survive beyond his presidency. Already the Republicans (who had taken control of the House in the elections of 1938) were railing against just about every policy Thomas introduced; and if some reactionary puppet of the bourgeoisie were to take office tomorrow, he would tear down all of Thomas's work within a week. Thomas would need a second term to work socialism into American society, to make it resistant to the ravages of cronyism and corruption. And if he was to have a second term, he could not take the country to war.
Of course, none of this was going through the mind of LaGuardia as he tried to convince his President to commit to what was becoming the bloodiest conflict mankind had ever waged. He leaned in closer to Thomas, as if divulging some scandalous rumor. "Mr. President, a war might just be the shot in the arm this country needs to get back on track. I doubt Tucker's ever told you this," said LaGuardia, referring to Thomas's rather colorless Treasury Secretary, "but war is just about the best way there is to bring down unemployment--as a matter of fact, during World War I, unemployment was the lowest it ever was for the past seventy years." Thomas chafed at the mention of a war that, as far as he was concerned, was not distinct in any way from the current one.
"And I don't just mean the draft. Shells, guns, bullets, provisions--everything has to be made by someone. It would make millions of jobs. Come to think of it, we wouldn't even have to enter the war--we could just supply our allies with aid: oil, food, weapons, planes, tanks, munitions, that sort of thing. We'll be making huge contributions to the war effort without shedding a single drop of blood, and when the war ends the world will have nothing but gratitude for our help. Think of it, Mr. President--factories popping up everywhere, men in every family earning a living wage building planes and munitions! And even after the war ends, those jobs will still be there, employing a whole generation of Americans. A generation that will know who to thank for pulling them out of crisis and calamity!" LaGuardia's speech grew more enthusiastic as he himself became excited with the prospect.
Thomas sighed. "Fiorello, that those jobs will still be there is just what frightens me. At some point, though it pains me to think about it, there will be a man in this office who will be content to release all state-controlled endeavors to the control of rapacious tycoons, and let them run rampant without a damn to give about whom they trample in the process. If by that time a great industry will have been built around the creation of instruments of war, then the benefactors of that industry will realize that war, in and of itself, will be, to them, a profitable endeavor. And whatever chauvinist will be sitting behind my desk will be all too happy to bring this nation to war with any enemy he can find, just to appease those war profiteers who will control him and his administration. If we allow an arms industry to take root now, we will turn war itself into a profitable industry--just another source of enrichment for those magnates without a heart for anything but money." [3]
LaGuardia paused for a moment--he truly hadn't considered that possibility. But surely Thomas was exaggerating. Just sending some guns and gas across the Atlantic couldn't possibly cause an industry to develop around war--could it? Well, even if it could, it would never have the sort of power that Thomas feared. Fiorello was as progressive as anyone--he was plenty in favor of nationalization and regulation, and his years spent battling Tammany Hall meant he knew better than anyone how minuscule cliques could grab political process by the balls. But for a single set of interests to dictate the course of an entire nation's foreign policy? Sometimes these Socialists could get a tad bit too paranoid for him.
Stashing his excited tone, Fiorello began to carefully moderate his voice in preparation for his last resort. "Listen, Mr. President," he implored, "fascism is a poison--and communism is hardly any better. And one of them is going to take over Europe if we don't interfere. Once the Germans and the Russians are done shredding each other, whichever one is still standing won't wait long to turn their guns on France and its neighbors." He put on his best radio voice, accentuating his words to maximize the effect. "If we leave them in the cold, they won't last long, not against the monsters of militaries they'll be up against. If we don't come to the defense of our allies, democracy--socialist or not--will soon be well and truly dead in Europe. Lives will be lost--many of them. But it's a sacrifice worth making if the reward is freedom and prosperity for future generations."
Thomas sighed, considering the words. Then he spoke. "Thank you, Fiorello." With half a smile, Fiorello turned on his heel and scooted wordlessly out the door of the Oval Office. When he'd accepted the position, he knew he'd be a moderate voice surrounded by radicals, but the people Thomas had surrounding him--they were pacifist to the point of spinelessness. If he was going to get America in this war, he'd need a friend in the cabinet.
Hours later, President Thomas went on the radio to reaffirm American neutrality in the expanding European conflict, insisting that America had no place interfering in the business of other nations when it was still hard at work solving its own issues. Nor would America supply significant aid to any combatant parties, not wishing to contribute to the conduct of a war that it viewed as immoral and unnecessary. Democratic Europe was on its own.
[1] George Norris, the Secretary of State.
[2] This is roughly on par with the situation in OTL late 1934, after about a year and a half of FDR's policies. Thomas fears that rapid, explosive economic growth will be unmanageable by the state, and in TTL, the Socialists lost control of the House of Representatives (but not of the Senate, due to statewide vote-splitting in key states) in 1938, and a lopsided coalition of conservative Republicans and Democrats have been fighting hard to block nearly every bit of legislation Thomas submits, effectively halting recovery two years into the implementation of the Socialist agenda.
[3] The concept Thomas fears was more succinctly described by OTL President Eisenhower as a military-industrial complex.