Under the Eagle Flag: My First Timeline

[Desmond Hume]

Hey all,
I've been kicking this timeline idea around in my mind since well before I even signed up at AH.com, and I finally decided to do it. The basic premise is that Augustin Iturbide makes some different decisions in 1822 and manages to survive a few more years as Emperor of Mexico. This eventually has major consequences for the expansion of the United States, and ultimately the world.

I've decided to start my first timeline at the worst possible time, with school just starting up, teaching two sections of freshman comp, and trying to put together a PhD qualifying exam reading list and committee. But I realized, I'm going to be this busy or busier for the next four years, so why NOT start this timeline now? However, updates may be sporadic. I am committed to finishing this, though, eventually; I hope to take it all the way to 2009 by the end.

The first entry will be a prologue. I hope to get some stuff examining the actual POD up by the end of the week.

 

[Desmond Hume]

Under the Eagle Flag
a timeline by Desmond Hume, humble contributor

Prologue
“If not for the catastrophes attendant upon the Oregon War, James K. Polk might have been remembered as one of the greatest Presidents of the First Union. With the United States reaching from ‘sea to shining sea’ in fulfillment of the nationalist dream, upon his inauguration in 1845 Polk had the opportunity to develop the United States in peace. Instead, he squandered this opportunity in a classic instance of overreach often compared to Napoleon. Indeed, Polk’s overreach may have been even more disastrous than Napoleon’s; for Polk’s folly inaugurated nearly two decades of national humiliation and conflict which eventually brought about the end of the First Union.” ---James Foxe, Polk and the Fall of the United States: 1845-48 (New York: Columbia, 1985).

38. James K. Polk (1845-49). James Knox Polk was, without a doubt, one of the worst Presidents in U.S. history. He started and lost an unnecessary war with Britain, caused the devastation of much of New England in said war, and always catered slavishly to Southern power (unsurprisingly, since he hailed from Tennessee). The only reason he isn’t at the bottom of this list is that some of his successors actually managed to be even worse. ---From USA Weekly, January 1, 2000, special issue, “Best and Worst of Everything in the Millennium: US Presidents.”

The flag of the United States of America since 1866

 

[Pyro]

You definitely piqued my curiosity. I hope to see another update when time allows you to.

 

[jycee]

Oh I am excited for this!! Finally a TL in which Polk screws up; everybody in AH always thinks he was extremely skillful and clever even though he came very close to screwing up big time several times.

Looking foward to this TL.

Awesome Flag BTW!

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Interesting.

Subscribed.

 

[Aero]

Very interesting intro, I will be keeping an eye on this TL.

The flag is cool too, and it beats OTL flag anyday!

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

Very interesting intro, I will be keeping an eye on this TL.

The flag is cool too, and it beats OTL flag anyday!

As will I! however, I'm not sure about your statement on the OTL flag. It kicks ass

 

[Desmond Hume]

Thanks for your interest Pyro, jycee, dreadnought jenkins, 037771, AeroMaxx, and Franciscus Caesar . Hope you like my new update. Feel free to point out mistakes or possible ASBs; Mexican history is not my forte, and I covered a lot of stuff here.

Chapter 1: The Eagle of Mexico​

“Agustin de Iturbide was crowned as Constitutional Emperor of Mexico on July 21, 1822. His grip on that position was tenuous from the beginning. He appears to have been inclined to run the country in the same dictatorial fashion as he had run his army. He was in constant conflict with the Congress, and even considered dissolving it later in 1822 [POD: in OTL Iturbide did dissolve the Congress, which led many of his supporters to renounce him and started the chain of events that led to his removal. ITTL he is narrowly talked out of dissolving Congress at this time]. As 1823 began, the unpopularity of Emperor Agustin’s lavish lifestyle and excessive military spending meant that he was hanging by a thread. However, as long as prominent military leaders like Santa Anna continued to support Agustin (however grudgingly), his opponents in Congress could not gain the strength to remove him.
The Emperor was further imperiled by a republican revolt that broke out in the Central American provinces in 1823. A substantial part of his army left the capital to fight in Central America, temporarily weakening his position against Congress. However, Agustin knew how to make the most of a crisis. When his forces finished suppressing the Central American revolt at the end of 1823, his status as national hero was burnished. In addition, Agustin tarred his republican opponents with the brush of the Central American revolt. By 1824, the republican faction in the Congress was marginalized and Agustin’s supporters were dominant.
This situation did not endure for long, though. Agustin’s economic policies continued to be unpopular, unrest increased in the capital, there was renewed rebellion in Central America, and the republicans did not stay down for long. In 1826, with the republican faction in Congress resurgent, Agustin finally dissolved the body. However, at this point his ambitious subordinate, Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna (the chief hero of the first Central American war) turned on him and allied with republican leader Vicente Guerrero to overthrow Agustin. On 19 June, 1826, Iturbide sailed into exile in Europe, where he would remain for the rest of his life, never renouncing his right to the throne until his death, in England, in 1842.
With Agustin banished, Mexico was proclaimed a republic. However, General Santa Anna was a dangerously important figure in the new regime. Officially subordinate to President Guerrero, in fact Santa Anna was the effective power behind the throne. This became even truer after 1829, when Santa Anna covered himself in glory by defeating a Spanish invasion force at Tampico [note: such a force was also sent in OTL, with the same result]. Santa Anna was by nature suspicious of the republican values promoted by Guerrero and other liberals; he took a dim view of the Mexican people’s fitness for liberty, and believed an enlightened despotic government to be preferable. With this in mind, the events of December 1829 are perhaps unsurprising. Realizing the threat posed by Santa Anna’s popularity, Guerrero resolved to remove the General from command of his army. However, Santa Anna got word of his planned arrest and mounted a coup against Guerrero that ended with the President being executed for treason.
Santa Anna took the title of President for himself, but this was not to be his title for long. In an eerie repetition of Agustin’s rise to power a decade earlier, the people of Mexico City demonstrated (almost certainly at the General’s instigation) for Santa Anna to assume the imperial crown. He made a show of reluctance, even publicly refusing a crown on several occasions, but on 18 May 1830 the Congress passed a unanimous resolution offering the crown to Santa Anna (after it had been fully purged of Guerrero supporters), and he ‘reluctantly’ accepted out of respect for the will of the people. That same day he placed the crown on his own head (as had Napoleon and Agustin). Emperor Antonio I was fond of granting himself additional, often outlandish titles, but he was fond of one above all others: the Eagle of Mexico.”
---From Maria Morelos, A Brief History of Mexico in the First and Second Empires (La Paz: University of Lower California Press, 2001).

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Interesting... Looking forward to reading this!

 

[Franciscus Caesar]

still good, keep it up!

 

[Sapiento]

Good start!

 

[stevep]

Desmond

Interesting. Sounds like the US is in for a very rough time. Interesting that your starting with a POD over 20 years before the main impact of the Oregon war. Not sure what the new union will consist of but wondering if Mexico is going to be a significant part.

Steve

 

[jycee]

This is very interesting I am hooked. Mexican history might not be your forte (it is mine) but you definitively nailed Santa Anna's personality there and a very discreet and plausible POD that could make a huge difference later on.
Interestingly having Santa Anna as a monarch might actually be a good thing; while he is distracted the pomp and lavishness of the imperial lifestyle, the actual administrative and military decisions could be made by more capable people.

Really looking forward to what comes next. Keep it up!

 

[Desmond Hume]

Interesting... Looking forward to reading this!

still good, keep it up!

Good start!

Desmond

Interesting. Sounds like the US is in for a very rough time. Interesting that your starting with a POD over 20 years before the main impact of the Oregon war. Not sure what the new union will consist of but wondering if Mexico is going to be a significant part.

Steve

Thanks everybody!

This is very interesting I am hooked. Mexican history might not be your forte (it is mine) but you definitively nailed Santa Anna's personality there and a very discreet and plausible POD that could make a huge difference later on.
Interestingly having Santa Anna as a monarch might actually be a good thing; while he is distracted the pomp and lavishness of the imperial lifestyle, the actual administrative and military decisions could be made by more capable people.

Really looking forward to what comes next. Keep it up!

Thanks; now I'm glad I went with Santa Anna as Emperor. I feared people would think it was ASB, but then I came across that "Napoleon of the West" business in my research and just couldn't resist.

And yes, jycee, things will go better for Mexico with Santa Anna distracted by imperial pomp...at least until the time comes to pay for said imperial pomp, that is

 

[Desmond Hume]

Can't believe it's been two weeks since I updated this. This chapter still covers Mexico, but some butterflies are beginning to touch other parts of the world too.

Chapter 2: Mexico Under the Eagle, Part 1​

It is all too easy to forget that the first years of Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna’s reign as Emperor Antonio I were fairly successful. He managed to negotiate an end to the latest rebellion in Central America in 1832. He mended relations with the European powers, leading to a much-needed influx of investment in Mexico (specifically from France and Great Britain). He oversaw the first period of sustained economic growth since before the War of Independence began.

However, in spite of his numerous successes Antonio came to be plagued by many of the same problems that had doomed Agustin. His insistence on maintaining a large army and his addiction to lavish living required immense sums of money, money that often had to be borrowed from foreign nations. His determination to govern Mexico on a centralized basis caused a gradual increase in opposition in distant provinces like Central America and Texas. The latter especially presented growing difficulties because by 1836 its inhabitants included large numbers of English-speaking Americans who ignored Mexican law by keeping slaves and who often held an anti-monarchist outlook. In 1837 a group of prominent Texan settlers met in the town of Washington-on-the-Brazos to draft a petition demanding greater autonomy from the Emperor. Antonio brusquely rejected the petition, and ordered a thousand soldiers north to maintain his control over the province. This led the Texas Convention to issue a Declaration of Independence on 13 September 1837. Antonio, naturally, was furious at this. However, despite sending 5,000 additional soldiers to Texas he could not defeat the rebels, who adopted guerilla tactics under the direction of their leader, Sam Houston.

In any case, by the end of 1837 Texas was not even Antonio’s most severe problem. Inspired partly by his lack of success in quickly suppressing the Texan rebellion, a group of Central American republicans raised the flag of revolt once again at the southern end of the empire. A bad harvest led to hardship in the countryside and riots in Mexico City. Meanwhile, Antonio’s prodigal ways were turning France, his main creditor, against him as a debt of hundreds of thousands of francs went unpaid…

 

[Desmond Hume]

New update. This basically brings the Mexican part of the timeline to a close; Mexico will continue to get attention, of course, but I don't think it will be the main focus from this point. Soon we'll be getting to the Oregon War.

Chapter 3: Mexico Under the Eagle, Part 2; Paying the Piper​

By 1838 Antonio’s profligate spending had placed Mexico in very serious trouble. He needed money to fight rebellions in Texas, Central America and Yucatan but he could barely pay the costs of day-to-day administration in the capital. Late that year he appealed to the government of French King Louis Phillipe for a loan of several million francs only to be denied as Mexico had an even larger debt outstanding. He then appealed to the United States, who declined to advance a loan but offered a counter-proposal: in return for the cession of Texas and certain other territories north of the Rio Grande, the US government would pay Mexico the desired amount. Antonio, enamored as he was of the notion of ruling an empire stretching across most of North America, refused the deal.

As the years passed, Antonio’s situation worsened. By 1840 Mexico had effectively lost the war in Texas, as the Texan Republican forces held the entire countryside north of the Nueces. Texan politics were defined by the struggle between President Mirabeau Lamar, who wanted to country to remain independent, and Sam Houston, who wanted to pursue annexation to the United States. While reluctant to risk open confrontation with Antonio and his still-powerful armies, the US government under President Tyler began to take an increasing interest in finding a way to add Texas to the Union. Such a move was especially popular in the southern states, as adding Texas would mean the admission of (at least) one more slave state.

The war in Central America was, if anything, an even bigger disaster for Antonio. By 1840 the imperial forces had been driven out of all of Central America except for the northern part of Guatemala province (which was debatably in imperial hands, as much of it was occupied by Mayan rebels). The United Provinces of Central America, as the rebels called their state, had established a reasonably well-functioning government in San Salvador and were seeking international recognition. The imperial government was also struggling to maintain its control over California and Nuevo Mexico, which had been stripped bare of troops to fight in Central America and were both being infiltrated by increasing numbers of American settlers with no loyalty to Mexico. Even provinces closer to Antonio’s centre of power like Yucatan were beginning to revolt.

The beginning of Antonio’s downfall came in 1841, when he renewed his application to the French for funds. When he was again denied, he rashly ordered the seizure of the property of French citizens living in Mexico. France viewed this as an act of war, and sent a fleet to blockade Mexico’s Gulf ports in retaliation. This blockade was tacitly supported by the Americans, who allowed the French to resupply in New Orleans before the planned French landing at Veracruz to coerce Mexico into compensating its citizens. Antonio unwisely chose to lead an army to Veracruz in person to break to French invasion. Even though he outnumbered the French almost two-to-one, his army was largely made up of recent conscripts from Mexico City and the surrounding countryside who lacked training and the best weapons; his best soldiers, of course, were stationed in Central America and could not make the march to Veracruz in time to keep up with the Emperor’s unnecessarily accelerated timetable. Antonio’s forces were routed at the Battle of Veracruz. He lost nearly a third of his army, and narrowly avoided death himself when he and his personal guard got caught in a French artillery barrage in the disorderly retreat; the Emperor’s horse was shot out from under him, and most of his bodyguards were killed by cannon fire.

Even though the French had no interest in conquering Mexico and their army soon withdrew in return for a promise to compensate French citizens for damages, the defeat ruined Antonio’s reputation as a defender of the motherland. By 1842 the long suppressed republican and liberal movements began to re-emerge and unify against the monarchy. Under the leadership of liberal Nuevo Leon governor Manuel Maria de Llano, the anti-monarchist forces began to raise an army in the northern provinces. Antonio’s few remaining allies could not provide enough support to save him. On 31 October 1843, as de Llano’s army entered Mexico City while meeting no resistance from the Emperor’s demoralized forces, Antonio abdicated and requested safe passage out of the country. He was allowed to leave Mexico on the condition that he would be executed if he ever returned, and sailed away to exile in Europe. A new Congress soon convened, abolished the monarchy, and elected de Llano president.

Mexico’s problems did not end with the monarchy, though. There was still the issue of what to do about Texas, Central America and Yucatan, all of which had established effective independence from Mexico City. Some felt the new republic should recognize their independence, while others believed it should fight to retain them. Meanwhile, the United States had never forgotten its spurned offer to purchase the northern regions, and in the wake of the civil war the Tyler administration increased its pressure on the republic to reconsider—hinting that military force might be employed if negotiation failed. In addition, the chaos of the post-1841 era had caused the neglect of the promised payments to France, and the French were warning none too subtly that if payment was not forthcoming a new blockade and possible invasion were in the works…

 

[jycee]

I just rediscovered this TL, I am amazed peopled have not replied to it. Rereading it I found a few things that piqued my interest and that might foreshadow a few things:

The first chapter on Mexico says it is taken from La Paz University of Lower California Press. For a TL in which Polk screws up badly (as do his successors), I really want to know how Baja will still become Lower California.

Also a war against a relatively stabler and more militarized Mexico must be interesting. I am a bit amazed you chose Llano as the new President. Herrera and Farias would have been the to go anti-Santa Anna republican candidates. But I guess Llano fits and with a non central-born President the rebelling territories might actually want to stick around.

Finally you said Tyler administration. Has the US not been affected by any butterflies? Or was Tyler actually elected on his own this time without Harrison dying. Threatening to go to war also makes Tyler somewhat more Polk like ITTL.

 

[GreatScottMarty]

I just rediscovered this TL, I am amazed peopled have not replied to it. Rereading it I found a few things that piqued my interest and that might foreshadow a few things:

The first chapter on Mexico says it is taken from La Paz University of Lower California Press. For a TL in which Polk screws up badly (as do his successors), I really want to know how Baja will still become Lower California.

Also a war against a relatively stabler and more militarized Mexico must be interesting. I am a bit amazed you chose Llano as the new President. Herrera and Farias would have been the to go anti-Santa Anna republican candidates. But I guess Llano fits and with a non central-born President the rebelling territories might actually want to stick around.

Finally you said Tyler administration. Has the US not been affected by any butterflies? Or was Tyler actually elected on his own this time without Harrison dying. Threatening to go to war also makes Tyler somewhat more Polk like ITTL.

I am subscribed and interested. keep it coming. the girl is calling but I got more comments later. I love Polk screwing up... that guy was not nice

 

[stevep]

jycee

Like the previous poster I've subscribed and been keeping an eye out. Definitely looks interesting but didn't know enough of Mexican history to comment in detail other than my initial one.

Hope that the TL is still active and we see more soon. Interesting idea although how things will link together and where they will end up. After all the fact that the US gets a kicking in an Oregon war and then has a couple of decades of serious problems doesn't necessarily mean its not still going to be as large and successful as OTL. Could end up with a markedly weaker US or one even stronger. From the comments made there is definitely going to be some successor US.

Steve

 

[Desmond Hume]

It's aliiiiiiiiiive!

Your comments really encouraged me to work on a new update; since nobody commented after my last set of updates, I was afraid nobody liked it. However, this is really something I cranked out in a couple hours without doing any research other than Wikipedia; so it's probably even more inaccurate and ASB than usual.

Chapter 4.1: Let’s Make a Deal​

“President Llano’s top priority in 1843-4 was to resolve conflicts with foreign powers and thus eliminate the threat of a destabilizing intervention. The chief obstacle in this was money. He sent ambassadors to Paris to beg more time to make the payments promised by the Emperor. The French government was unreceptive. Mexico was in a near-impossible position: bankrupt, unable to borrow any funds, and at the mercy of increasingly impatient creditors.
The United States resolved to take advantage of this situation. Discussions regarding the status of Texas and the possible purchase of certain northern regions had begun at lower levels almost as soon as the Republican takeover in Mexico. By mid-February 1844, these talks were advanced enough for President Tyler to send Secretary of State Abel Upshur to Mexico for discussions with Llano [note: this means that Upshur does not die on 28 Feb. in the USS Princeton explosion]. Upshur shuttled between Washington and Mexico for much for the year as negotiations proceeded fitfully. The Americans and Mexicans agreed early on that some transfer of territory for payment should take place; however, the two countries hotly disputed how much territory should be transferred and how much should be paid for it. The Mexicans agreed early on to accept the American annexation of Texas; however, they insisted that the new border should be drawn at the Nueces River—which was unacceptable to the Texans. Llano also faced significant opposition to selling portions of the northern provinces to the Americans from within his own government. There was particular opposition to selling the Pacific ports in California, as they had considerable potential for development.
Ultimately, however, Mexico’s need for money to pay its foreign debts won out. On 23 August, 1844, Llano and Upshur met for a final time in Veracruz to conclude the treaty. It stipulated that the United States would pay $30 million to Mexico [note: twice what the US paid for analogous territory at Guadalupe Hidalgo in OTL; but without Mexico being defeated in war first, I figured the price would have to go up for a country to give up so much territory] and forgive some $5 million in debt owed to the United States by Mexico; additionally, the US undertook to respect the property rights of Mexican citizens living on the transferred territory. In exchange for this, Mexico sold vast territories in the north to the US, and recognized the independence of Texas so that the US and Texas could arrange terms for Texas’ annexation to the United States. It was a stupendous diplomatic victory for the beleaguered Tyler, already doomed to a one-term presidency. However, it did fall in the middle of a hotly contested election for Tyler’s replacement…” [note: I’ll have a map up soon showing the border changes; but it’s pretty similar to the OTL Mexican Cession with a few big exceptions. First, the southern border of Texas is the Nueces, not the Rio Grande. Second, the border in California is drawn slightly farther north than OTL; around the OTL northern border of San Diego County, as it happens ]
---From Stephen Gaffigan, “Some Notes on American First Union Diplomatic History,” British Journal of North American Studies vol. 76 no. 2, 1973.

I hope to have a map and an update covering the 1844 election up sometime this week.

I just rediscovered this TL, I am amazed peopled have not replied to it. Rereading it I found a few things that piqued my interest and that might foreshadow a few things:

The first chapter on Mexico says it is taken from La Paz University of Lower California Press. For a TL in which Polk screws up badly (as do his successors), I really want to know how Baja will still become Lower California.

Also a war against a relatively stabler and more militarized Mexico must be interesting. I am a bit amazed you chose Llano as the new President. Herrera and Farias would have been the to go anti-Santa Anna republican candidates. But I guess Llano fits and with a non central-born President the rebelling territories might actually want to stick around.

Finally you said Tyler administration. Has the US not been affected by any butterflies? Or was Tyler actually elected on his own this time without Harrison dying. Threatening to go to war also makes Tyler somewhat more Polk like ITTL.

Thanks! As I've said, Mexican history is not my strength, and frankly I chose Llano because I found his name on Wikipedia. I'd be open to retconning one of the people you mentioned as President, though.

Tyler became president as in OTL; all US presidents will be the same up to 1848. I didn't think butterflies would immediately change US elections that drastically--although now that I think about it, the precedent of a popular military hero declaring himself emperor might give the anti-Jackson people another thing to bash good old Andy with.

I am subscribed and interested. keep it coming. the girl is calling but I got more comments later. I love Polk screwing up... that guy was not nice

Thanks!

jycee

Like the previous poster I've subscribed and been keeping an eye out. Definitely looks interesting but didn't know enough of Mexican history to comment in detail other than my initial one.

Hope that the TL is still active and we see more soon. Interesting idea although how things will link together and where they will end up. After all the fact that the US gets a kicking in an Oregon war and then has a couple of decades of serious problems doesn't necessarily mean its not still going to be as large and successful as OTL. Could end up with a markedly weaker US or one even stronger. From the comments made there is definitely going to be some successor US.

Steve

Thanks! You and jycee might find it interesting to take a look at my first two posts in this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=137861

there's some possible spoilers there